WPAC: FANAPI - Tropical Depression (1011/12W/Inday)

[dexterlabio]

Thanks TaiwanGuest for reporting us the situation over there. Keep on posting the things happening in your area to update us.

That's a Cat3 typhoon, surely the wind impact would be serious.

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 23.7N 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.7N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.6N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 23.8N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 24.1N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.1N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 121.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//

[ResidentOfTaiwan]

Scary to think that almost all of Taiwan would have winds of 50kts to 100kts!

I thank all of you for your concern for us.
I'd just like to tell you that while Taiwan is a beautiful country populated by beautiful people - I'm serious, the people are the friendliest in the world, - even in the big city of Taipei, if you come here to visit you will receive nonstop help from locals eager to give you directions and help you decide what to eat in restaurants and translate for you when you need something but can't speak or read Chinese, the buildings of Taiwan will not win any beauty contests because they are all made of concrete. This is a tiny island with no where to run, so the preferred structural material here is concrete. Taipei is a city of concrete bunkers designed to withstand earthquakes and typhoons. We can handle wind, AS LONG AS WE STAY INSIDE. I knew a guy like this who went out for supplies and amd running back white as a sheet, because he had been literally picked up by the wind and blown down the street.

There are always fools here new to Taiwan who don't take typhoons seriously and go out in the wind, but you don't get mass damage of homes like you saw in Hurricane Andrew. I still think the rest of the world could learn from Taiwan. I'd rather live in a safe home made of concrete and steel beams than a beautiful home made of wood. Oh, and you don't see any carpet, here, either. We like tile, for the flooding. And most homes and all businesses in areas that are exposed to wind have steel doors kind of like garage doors that you can lower over the front of the largest windows.
My windows are so thick that you can't see through them, and over those windows are bars. The bars are to protect from flying objects. I live in a cheap building and earn a modest income.


The worry here is endless rain that causes landslides and flooding, like we saw in Morakot. And the poor people who live in the mountains and may not have secure concrete fortresses like we have in the cities.

[TaiwanGuest]

This photo is so beautiful and frightening at the same time. Most photos I've seen of this type, the eyewall isn't still well defined over land. Surely, a storm like this has to get weaker as it crosses the mountain.

[supercane]

WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD-FILLED
EYE AS TY 12W MAKES LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON AN EYE FIX AND A TAIWAN
RADAR FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY,
OBSERVATIONS FROM HUALIEN, TAIWAN ARE INDICATING MEAN SURFACE LEVEL
WINDS OF 45KTS WITH GUSTS OF 115 KNOTS, APPROXIMATELY 20NM TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT
HINDERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING INCREASED
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRACK OVER TAIWAN. BY TAU 24, TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
AGAIN OVER EASTERN CHINA AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRACK INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.//

Looking at Taiwan obs from Weather Underground, 38 mph seems a popular number for sustained winds.

[Chacor]

0215 UTC warning from Taiwan's CWB:
Min CP: 940 hPa
Location: 90 km (55 miles) SSW of Hualien
Wind radii: 30 kt: 200 km; 50 kt: 80 km
Maximum winds near centre: 45 m/s (100 mph, 160 km/h)
Maximum gusts: 55 m/s (125 mph, 200 km/h)

Remarks: Landfall at 8:40 local (0040) in Hualien County.
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/

[ResidentOfTaiwan]

This photo is so beautiful and frightening at the same time. Most photos I've seen of this type, the eyewall isn't still well defined over land. Surely, a storm like this has to get weaker as it crosses the mountain.

God I hope so. I think this afternoon is a good time to root through my closet and get donations ready. I've got some blankets and other items to spare.
At least we have Wednesday off (national holiday), so a lot of people are in a position to donate their time. Let's pray we won't need it.

[Chacor]

Latest obs:
Taipei-Taoyuan International Airport: 0000 UTC: 17 m/s (33 knots)
Hehuan Mountain (peak, at elevation): 0200 UTC: 24.5 m/s (47 knots)
Wuqi: 0200 UTC: 21 m/s (41 kt) gusting 36.5 m/s (71 kt), pressure 988 hPa
Chenggong: 0200 UTC: gusts to 38.5 m/s (75 kt), pressure 977 hPa
Lanyu: 0200 UTC: gusts to 42 m/s (82 kt)

[oaba09]

This photo is so beautiful and frightening at the same time. Most photos I've seen of this type, the eyewall isn't still well defined over land. Surely, a storm like this has to get weaker as it crosses the mountain.

God I hope so. I think this afternoon is a good time to root through my closet and get donations ready. I've got some blankets and other items to spare.
At least we have Wednesday off (national holiday), so a lot of people are in a position to donate their time. Let's pray we won't need it.

We know what you guys are going through right now....That's a really powerful typhoon you got there...I'll be praying for the people of Taiwan...

[Chacor]

Latest radar from Taiwan suggests a southwards jog or a reformation of the centre further south.

[Infdidoll]

Interesting...looks like it has just slid down the coast of Taiwan, but JMA is predicting it to go WNW now

[TaiwanGuest]

It's not jumping the mountains, it's skirting them.

[dexterlabio]

TPPN10 PGTW 190306

A. TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI)

B. 19/0232Z

C. 23.4N

D. 120.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/2313Z 23.7N 121.8E AMSU


GATES

Is this just a typo or what?

[RobWESTPACWX]

This is an amazing case of friction, the storm is being deflected around almost instead of over the mountains.

What does this mean? Could be worst flooding in the southern portions as the storm will take longer to traverse the island.

[RobWESTPACWX]

With this jog to the S this storm has taken HK may haft to worry about this storm a little more, if it skirts the coast as JMA is indicating is possible right now then typhoon strength winds are possible on station in Hong Kong.

[Typhoon10]

Whats the reliablility of this move to the south, is there other websites/agencies to substantiate it?

[phwxenthusiast]

based on IR image (nrlmry) and taiwan radar, it looks like it's more of a WSW really... but that's just my opinion...

[Chacor]

We've seen this phenomenon before, in Sepat 2007.

[Aslkahuna]

I saw the same thing happen with STY Rita in 1978. The storm was headed straight for us at Clark AB but when it encountered the mountain wall of eastern Luzon it turned due north until it reached Dingalan Bay and the mountain Gap behind it and shot through about 50 miles north of us so instead of 80G100 kt winds we had 40G58 kt winds. I saw this all on radar as I tracked the storm.

Steve

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1011 FANAPI (1011) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 22.8N 120.6E FAIR
MOVE SW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 23.8N 116.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 210600UTC 23.6N 112.4E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Going down fast, those mountains doing its job.