000
WTNT33 KNHC 170239
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
...HURRICANE KARL HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH 100 MPH
WINDS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THE THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND
KARL COULD REACH THE COAST AS AN INTENSE CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
968 MB...28.58 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
ATL: KARL - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories
000
WTNT43 KNHC 170240
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
HAVE REACHED T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE OR 90 KNOTS AT
0000 UTC. SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISTINCT...
SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE CROSSED THE EYE A FEW TIMES THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE DROPPED TO 968 MB AND THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REACHED 90
KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ACCOMPANIED BY SFMR MEASUREMENTS OF
85 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 85 KNOTS. THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THAT THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS WE SPEAK. KARL HAS
LESS THAN A DAY BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR KARL TO BE A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL
OVER THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT KARL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS.
KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED
SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AMONG
MODELS...THE OVERALL MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP KARL ON A STRAIGHT
WESTWARD PATH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOLLOWED BY A LANDFALL OVER
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.7N 94.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 19.7N 95.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 19.7N 96.8W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/1200Z 19.5N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/0000Z 19.5N 100.0W 20 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATING INLAND
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT43 KNHC 170240
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
HAVE REACHED T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE OR 90 KNOTS AT
0000 UTC. SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISTINCT...
SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE CROSSED THE EYE A FEW TIMES THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE DROPPED TO 968 MB AND THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REACHED 90
KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ACCOMPANIED BY SFMR MEASUREMENTS OF
85 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 85 KNOTS. THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THAT THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS WE SPEAK. KARL HAS
LESS THAN A DAY BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR KARL TO BE A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL
OVER THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT KARL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS.
KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED
SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AMONG
MODELS...THE OVERALL MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP KARL ON A STRAIGHT
WESTWARD PATH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOLLOWED BY A LANDFALL OVER
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.7N 94.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 19.7N 95.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 19.7N 96.8W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/1200Z 19.5N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/0000Z 19.5N 100.0W 20 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATING INLAND
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
100 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE
COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED...AND KARL COULD REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. A JOINT U.S. EPA AND MEXICAN GOVERNMENT OBSERVING
STATION ON SACRIFICE ISLAND NEAR VERACRUZ RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...58 KM/HR...AND A GUST TO 41 MPH...66
KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
100 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE
COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED...AND KARL COULD REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. A JOINT U.S. EPA AND MEXICAN GOVERNMENT OBSERVING
STATION ON SACRIFICE ISLAND NEAR VERACRUZ RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...58 KM/HR...AND A GUST TO 41 MPH...66
KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Aquawind
- Category 5
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- Contact:
000
WTNT43 KNHC 170837
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 105 KT...AN SFMR MAXIMUM OF 86 KT...AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 967 MB AS IT EXITED KARL BEFORE AROUND 0530 UTC.
SINCE THEN...CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE COOLED BELOW -70C AND
THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED...AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T6.0/115 KT AT 0600 UTC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...
ASSUMING THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO LAG THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. ANOTHER HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING KARL THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE. KARL STILL HAS
THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER VERY WARM WATERS PRIOR
TO LANDFALL LATER TODAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.
AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE
AFTER THIS TIME OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS WESTWARD...OR 270 DEGREES...AT 8
KNOTS. KARL WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF
KARL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
SHOWS A WESTWARD MOTION OF 7 TO 8 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL LATER TODAY.
AFTER THAT TIME A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 19.7N 95.3W 105 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 19.7N 96.3W 120 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 19.6N 97.6W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/1800Z 19.5N 99.2W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/0600Z 19.4N 100.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
WTNT43 KNHC 170837
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 105 KT...AN SFMR MAXIMUM OF 86 KT...AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 967 MB AS IT EXITED KARL BEFORE AROUND 0530 UTC.
SINCE THEN...CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE COOLED BELOW -70C AND
THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED...AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T6.0/115 KT AT 0600 UTC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...
ASSUMING THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO LAG THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. ANOTHER HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING KARL THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE. KARL STILL HAS
THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER VERY WARM WATERS PRIOR
TO LANDFALL LATER TODAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.
AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE
AFTER THIS TIME OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS WESTWARD...OR 270 DEGREES...AT 8
KNOTS. KARL WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF
KARL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
SHOWS A WESTWARD MOTION OF 7 TO 8 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL LATER TODAY.
AFTER THAT TIME A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 19.7N 95.3W 105 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 19.7N 96.3W 120 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 19.6N 97.6W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/1800Z 19.5N 99.2W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/0600Z 19.4N 100.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories
KNHC 171157
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE KARL APPROACHING THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KARL WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY...AND MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARL IS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER KARL MOVES
INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE KARL APPROACHING THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KARL WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY...AND MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARL IS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER KARL MOVES
INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139078
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories
000
WTNT33 KNHC 171446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KARL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 95.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
MEXICAN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN MOVE INLAND
OVER MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE
LANDFALL...WITH KARL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT LAGUNA VERDE MEXICO
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...AT THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND NEAR THE
CENTER OF KARL AFTER LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT43 KNHC 171447
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
KARL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE 10 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED. IN ADDITION...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SINCE 12Z...WITH THE LATEST EXTRAPOLATED
PRESSURE OF 967 MB. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
REPORTED AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF 103 KT FROM THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL...WITH
700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT. THESE DATA ARE THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT.
KARL HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION NOW 260/7. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE STORM WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 48-72 HR UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES
TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY
BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE IN 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL
CONTINUE AFTER THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 19.4N 95.9W 105 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 19.2N 96.9W 80 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 18/1200Z 19.1N 98.2W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 19/0000Z 19.1N 99.7W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/1200Z 19.1N 101.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT33 KNHC 171446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KARL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 95.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
MEXICAN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN MOVE INLAND
OVER MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE
LANDFALL...WITH KARL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT LAGUNA VERDE MEXICO
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...AT THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND NEAR THE
CENTER OF KARL AFTER LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT43 KNHC 171447
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
KARL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE 10 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED. IN ADDITION...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SINCE 12Z...WITH THE LATEST EXTRAPOLATED
PRESSURE OF 967 MB. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
REPORTED AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF 103 KT FROM THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL...WITH
700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT. THESE DATA ARE THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT.
KARL HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION NOW 260/7. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE STORM WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 48-72 HR UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES
TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY
BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE IN 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL
CONTINUE AFTER THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 19.4N 95.9W 105 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 19.2N 96.9W 80 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 18/1200Z 19.1N 98.2W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 19/0000Z 19.1N 99.7W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/1200Z 19.1N 101.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139078
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...CENTER OF KARL NOW INLAND JUST TO THE WEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 96.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...
175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION IN THE HARBOR AT VERACRUZ
MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 65 MPH...105
KM/HR... AND A WIND GUST OF 94 MPH...152 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER OF KARL
IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...CENTER OF KARL NOW INLAND JUST TO THE WEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 96.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...
175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION IN THE HARBOR AT VERACRUZ
MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 65 MPH...105
KM/HR... AND A WIND GUST OF 94 MPH...152 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER OF KARL
IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories
C 172031
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...KARL MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN FASTER...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 96.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. KARL IS NOW
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...WITH KARL EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
80 MILES...130 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER
INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE TRACK
OF THE CENTER TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD
SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER
THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS
CAN BE EVEN GREATER.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...KARL MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN FASTER...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 96.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. KARL IS NOW
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...WITH KARL EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
80 MILES...130 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF KARL MOVES FARTHER
INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE TRACK
OF THE CENTER TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD
SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER
THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS
CAN BE EVEN GREATER.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139078
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories
000
WTNT33 KNHC 172336
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...KARL WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 97.1W
ABOUT 75 MI..115 KM E OF PUEBLA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED WELL INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
97.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
KARL IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND KARL IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...80 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN A SMALL AREA NEAR
THE CENTER. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE CENTER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AS KARL
WEAKENS. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND
MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN
THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT33 KNHC 172336
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...KARL WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 97.1W
ABOUT 75 MI..115 KM E OF PUEBLA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED WELL INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
97.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
KARL IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND KARL IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...80 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN A SMALL AREA NEAR
THE CENTER. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE CENTER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AS KARL
WEAKENS. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND
MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN
THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139078
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories
000
WTNT33 KNHC 180232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...KARL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 97.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF PUEBLA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL
WAS LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7
MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT33 KNHC 180232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...KARL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 97.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF PUEBLA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL
WAS LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7
MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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