Despite some dry air Malakas still holding its own based on the latest ASCAT pass:
WPAC: MALAKAS (1012/13W) - Ex Typhoon
Moderator: S2k Moderators
WDPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170
NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BANDING EYE FEATURE WITH CONVECTION RE-BUILDING OVER THE SYSTEM
CENTER. A 231021Z 37 GHZ SSMIS PASS AND A 231032Z 37 GHZ TRMM PASS
DEPICT A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE AND CONFIRM THE CURRENT POSITION
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SUBSIDENCE
PREVIOUSLY HINDERING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM HAS DECREASED ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TS 13W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU
36 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. DURING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET), TS 13W IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTENSE, AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND A
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDE A STRONG BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM. TS
13W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ET BY TAU 72 AS AN INTENSE EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170
NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BANDING EYE FEATURE WITH CONVECTION RE-BUILDING OVER THE SYSTEM
CENTER. A 231021Z 37 GHZ SSMIS PASS AND A 231032Z 37 GHZ TRMM PASS
DEPICT A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE AND CONFIRM THE CURRENT POSITION
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SUBSIDENCE
PREVIOUSLY HINDERING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM HAS DECREASED ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TS 13W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU
36 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. DURING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET), TS 13W IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTENSE, AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND A
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDE A STRONG BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM. TS
13W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ET BY TAU 72 AS AN INTENSE EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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RobWESTPACWX
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- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MALAKAS (1012) - Severe Tropical Storm [JTWC: TS 13W]
Thats just the military in me, it's the way I have always briefed it at work. I guess I should try to steer away from that for civilian purposes, thanks!
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MALAKAS (1012) - Severe Tropical Storm [JTWC: TS 13W]
Upgraded to a TY at 18Z. The winds were raised further at 21Z to 70kts.
WTPQ21 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 23.3N 140.9E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 31.2N 143.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 24KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 251800UTC 40.2N 149.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 30KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 261800UTC 49.2N 162.6E 325NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
WTPQ21 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 23.3N 140.9E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 31.2N 143.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 24KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 251800UTC 40.2N 149.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 30KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 261800UTC 49.2N 162.6E 325NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS (1012) - Severe Tropical Storm [JTWC: TS 13W]
JMA has the same intensity that JTWC that means that the JTWC is underestimating the strength of Malakas. I still think this could be the next 3rd major typhoon but that will depend on the JTWC.
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WTPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 140.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 140.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.2N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.0N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 35.9N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 40.7N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 49.2N 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 141.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
231616Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD FIX AS WELL AS AN ITOP VORTEX
MESSAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE VORTEX MESSAGE, ITOP
DROPSONDE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DECREASED SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH
HAS ALLOWED TY 13W TO INTENSIFY BY 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE PAST SIX
HOURS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST HAS IMPROVED AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. TY
13W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
BY TAU 24, TY 13W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 48, TY MALAKAS
SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TY 13W IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND
242100Z.//
TXPN28 KNES 232114
SIMWIR
A. 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 23/2032Z
C. 23.5N
D. 140.9E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER LAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ELONGATED OW EYE EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY W
RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.5. ELONGATED EYE REQUIRES 0.5 BE SUBTRACTED AND
NO PLUS EYE ADJUSTMENT IS ALLOWED. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 4.0. FT BASED
ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
23/1602Z 22.9N 140.9E AMSU
23/1616Z 22.9N 140.8E AMSRE
...TURK
=
836
TCNA21 RJTD 240000
CCAA 24000 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15241 11409 13334 245// 93613=
Mission over in Malakas. Last VDM:
URPA12 PGUA 232258
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/22:16:50Z
B. 24 deg 05 min N
140 deg 38 min E
C. 700 mb 2850 m
D. 61 kt
E. 340 deg 22 nm
F. 087 deg 67 kt
G. 349 deg 43 nm
H. 971 mb
I. 11 C / 3048 m
J. 15 C / 3046 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. closed
M. C60
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0322W MALAKAS OB 68
MAX FL WIND 90 KT E QUAD 19:12:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 87 KT S QUAD 22:28:30Z
ragged eyewall
;
Note that the surface winds recorded in D of 61kt do not correspond to the typical 90% reduction from 700 mb, in which case the max sustained winds would be around 80kt. The obs from Iwo To, if from the E eye wall, would be close to 60kt converted to 1-min sustained.
Last 6hr of obs at RJAW:
RJAW 240000Z 12050G82KT 1500 R07/0350V0800D +SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 SCT010TCU 25/25 Q0977 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 3TCU010 A2887 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232315Z 11055G79KT 1500 R07/0750V1200D +SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 SCT010TCU 25/24 Q0980 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 3TCU010 A2897 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232306Z 11054G83KT 1600 R07/1100U SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 FEW010TCU 25/24 Q0981 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 1TCU010 A2899 TCU 5KM N MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232300Z 12055G95KT 1500 R07/0700V1200U +SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 SCT010TCU 25/24 Q0982 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 3TCU010 A2902 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232249Z 11055G95KT 1500 R07/0800N +SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 SCT010TCU 25/24 Q0983 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 3TCU010 A2903 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232235Z 11055G81KT 1500 R07/0450V1500D +SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 SCT010TCU 25/24 Q0983 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 3TCU010 A2905 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232226Z 11056G83KT 3100 SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 25/24 Q0984 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 A2907 P/FR
RJAW 232200Z 11052G78KT 3500 -SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 25/24 Q0987 RMK 4ST006 6CU010 8CU015 A2915 P/FR
RJAW 232140Z 11053G77KT 3500 -SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 25/24 Q0988 RMK 4ST006 6CU010 8CU015 A2919 P/FR
RJAW 232100Z 11043G66KT 4000 -SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 25/24 Q0990 RMK 4ST006 6CU010 8CU015 A2926
RJAW 232040Z 11044G67KT 3200 -SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 25/24 Q0991 RMK 4ST006 6CU010 8CU015 A2927
RJAW 232016Z 11045G70KT 2500 SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 FEW015TCU 25/24 Q0992 RMK 4ST006 6CU010 8CU015 1TCU015 A2930 TCU 5KM E MOV NW
RJAW 232000Z 11042G57KT 2500 SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 FEW015TCU 25/24 Q0993 RMK 3ST006 6CU010 8CU015 1TCU015 A2933 TCU 5KM N MOV NW
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 140.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 140.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.2N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.0N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 35.9N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 40.7N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 49.2N 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 141.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
231616Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD FIX AS WELL AS AN ITOP VORTEX
MESSAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE VORTEX MESSAGE, ITOP
DROPSONDE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DECREASED SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH
HAS ALLOWED TY 13W TO INTENSIFY BY 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE PAST SIX
HOURS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST HAS IMPROVED AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. TY
13W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
BY TAU 24, TY 13W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 48, TY MALAKAS
SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TY 13W IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND
242100Z.//
TXPN28 KNES 232114
SIMWIR
A. 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 23/2032Z
C. 23.5N
D. 140.9E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER LAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ELONGATED OW EYE EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY W
RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.5. ELONGATED EYE REQUIRES 0.5 BE SUBTRACTED AND
NO PLUS EYE ADJUSTMENT IS ALLOWED. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 4.0. FT BASED
ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
23/1602Z 22.9N 140.9E AMSU
23/1616Z 22.9N 140.8E AMSRE
...TURK
=
836
TCNA21 RJTD 240000
CCAA 24000 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15241 11409 13334 245// 93613=
Mission over in Malakas. Last VDM:
URPA12 PGUA 232258
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/22:16:50Z
B. 24 deg 05 min N
140 deg 38 min E
C. 700 mb 2850 m
D. 61 kt
E. 340 deg 22 nm
F. 087 deg 67 kt
G. 349 deg 43 nm
H. 971 mb
I. 11 C / 3048 m
J. 15 C / 3046 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. closed
M. C60
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0322W MALAKAS OB 68
MAX FL WIND 90 KT E QUAD 19:12:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 87 KT S QUAD 22:28:30Z
ragged eyewall
;
Note that the surface winds recorded in D of 61kt do not correspond to the typical 90% reduction from 700 mb, in which case the max sustained winds would be around 80kt. The obs from Iwo To, if from the E eye wall, would be close to 60kt converted to 1-min sustained.
Last 6hr of obs at RJAW:
RJAW 240000Z 12050G82KT 1500 R07/0350V0800D +SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 SCT010TCU 25/25 Q0977 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 3TCU010 A2887 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232315Z 11055G79KT 1500 R07/0750V1200D +SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 SCT010TCU 25/24 Q0980 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 3TCU010 A2897 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232306Z 11054G83KT 1600 R07/1100U SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 FEW010TCU 25/24 Q0981 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 1TCU010 A2899 TCU 5KM N MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232300Z 12055G95KT 1500 R07/0700V1200U +SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 SCT010TCU 25/24 Q0982 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 3TCU010 A2902 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232249Z 11055G95KT 1500 R07/0800N +SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 SCT010TCU 25/24 Q0983 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 3TCU010 A2903 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232235Z 11055G81KT 1500 R07/0450V1500D +SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 SCT010TCU 25/24 Q0983 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 3TCU010 A2905 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232226Z 11056G83KT 3100 SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 25/24 Q0984 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 A2907 P/FR
RJAW 232200Z 11052G78KT 3500 -SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 25/24 Q0987 RMK 4ST006 6CU010 8CU015 A2915 P/FR
RJAW 232140Z 11053G77KT 3500 -SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 25/24 Q0988 RMK 4ST006 6CU010 8CU015 A2919 P/FR
RJAW 232100Z 11043G66KT 4000 -SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 25/24 Q0990 RMK 4ST006 6CU010 8CU015 A2926
RJAW 232040Z 11044G67KT 3200 -SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 25/24 Q0991 RMK 4ST006 6CU010 8CU015 A2927
RJAW 232016Z 11045G70KT 2500 SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 FEW015TCU 25/24 Q0992 RMK 4ST006 6CU010 8CU015 1TCU015 A2930 TCU 5KM E MOV NW
RJAW 232000Z 11042G57KT 2500 SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 FEW015TCU 25/24 Q0993 RMK 3ST006 6CU010 8CU015 1TCU015 A2933 TCU 5KM N MOV NW
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The eye does look a little on the ragged side and if there is dry air about then the system very likely is not going to have the standard reductions...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
It seems like a lot of DAA did get wrapped in to it last night, yet it still looks to strengthen even so, especially since it is getting wrapped up in the low coming off the coast. It is going to be one heck of a ET low that is for sure. I think we will see this storm go sub-tropical though in the next 24-48hrs.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
WTPQ21 RJTD 240000 CCA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 24.2N 140.9E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 33.0N 144.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 29KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 260000UTC 42.7N 153.4E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
Latest Dvorak from JTWC T5.0 would correspond to 90kt.
TPPN11 PGTW 240026
A. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 23/2332Z
C. 24.4N
D. 140.6E
E. FOUR/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE WITH LG SURR RING
YIELDS A DT OF A 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/1951Z 23.4N 140.8E SSMS
23/2038Z 23.7N 140.6E WIND
23/2213Z 23.9N 140.7E AMSU
GATES
Latest ob from Iwo To (RJAW):
RJAW 240045Z 15049G98KT 1000 R07/0500V1000U +SHRA BR SCT002 BKN006 OVC010TCU 26/25 Q0971 RMK 3ST002 6ST006 8TCU010 A2868 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 24.2N 140.9E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 33.0N 144.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 29KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 260000UTC 42.7N 153.4E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
Latest Dvorak from JTWC T5.0 would correspond to 90kt.
TPPN11 PGTW 240026
A. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 23/2332Z
C. 24.4N
D. 140.6E
E. FOUR/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE WITH LG SURR RING
YIELDS A DT OF A 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/1951Z 23.4N 140.8E SSMS
23/2038Z 23.7N 140.6E WIND
23/2213Z 23.9N 140.7E AMSU
GATES
Latest ob from Iwo To (RJAW):
RJAW 240045Z 15049G98KT 1000 R07/0500V1000U +SHRA BR SCT002 BKN006 OVC010TCU 26/25 Q0971 RMK 3ST002 6ST006 8TCU010 A2868 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
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WTPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 24.4N 140.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 140.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.2N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 33.3N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 38.5N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 43.3N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 51.5N 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 140.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
WESTSOUTH-WEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z
IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
WDPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 232253Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A LARGE RAGGED EYE WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN TO
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 232216Z ITOP
VORTEX MESSAGE AS WELL AS A PGTW FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS.
SURFACE LEVEL WIND OBSERVATIONS AT 240048Z FROM IWO JO ARE REPORTING
49 KNOT WINDS WITH 98 KNOT GUSTS. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALLOWED TY 13W TO INTENSIFY BY 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS FORECAST PREDICTS A HIGHER MAXIMUM INTENSITY THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE INTENSIFICATION TREND.
B. TY 13W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
BY TAU 24, TY 13W SHOULD BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 48, TY MALAKAS
IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
NORTH. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TY
13W IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 24.4N 140.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 140.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.2N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 33.3N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 38.5N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 43.3N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 51.5N 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 140.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
WESTSOUTH-WEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z
IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
WDPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 232253Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A LARGE RAGGED EYE WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN TO
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 232216Z ITOP
VORTEX MESSAGE AS WELL AS A PGTW FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS.
SURFACE LEVEL WIND OBSERVATIONS AT 240048Z FROM IWO JO ARE REPORTING
49 KNOT WINDS WITH 98 KNOT GUSTS. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALLOWED TY 13W TO INTENSIFY BY 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS FORECAST PREDICTS A HIGHER MAXIMUM INTENSITY THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE INTENSIFICATION TREND.
B. TY 13W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
BY TAU 24, TY 13W SHOULD BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 48, TY MALAKAS
IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE
NORTH. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TY
13W IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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WTPQ21 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 25.2N 140.9E GOOD
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 34.7N 145.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 30KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 260000UTC 42.7N 153.4E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
JTWC 03Z graphic:
Latest ASCAT pass:
Latest Dvorak T4.5 from KNES:
TXPN28 KNES 240324
SIMWIR
A. 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 24/0232Z
C. 25.1N
D. 140.8E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...WMG ELONGATED EYE IS EMBEDDED IN MG AND SURROUNDED BY LG
RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.0. NO PLUS EYE ADJUSTMENT DUE TO ELONGATED EYE.
PT = 4.5 AND MET = 4.0. FT BASED ON PT.
NIL
...KIBLER
=
Decreasing winds at Iwo-to after peak gust to 99kt:
RJAW 240346Z 22048G72KT 1000 R07/0150V1100U +SHRA BR SCT002 BKN006 OVC010TCU 25/25 Q0979 RMK 3ST002 6ST006 8TCU010 A2893 TCU OHD MOV N P/RR WIND BY EQPT/07
RJAW 240332Z 22053G87KT 0800 R07/0150V0250N +SHRA FG SCT002 BKN006 OVC010TCU 25/25 Q0977 RMK 4ST002 6ST006 8TCU010 A2885 TCU OHD MOV N RI++ P/RR WIND BY EQPT/07
RJAW 240318Z 21063GP99KT 0800 R07/0050V0200D +SHRA FG SCT002 BKN006 OVC010TCU 25/25 Q0971 RMK 4ST002 6ST006 8TCU010 A2868
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 25.2N 140.9E GOOD
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 34.7N 145.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 30KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 260000UTC 42.7N 153.4E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
JTWC 03Z graphic:
Latest ASCAT pass:
Latest Dvorak T4.5 from KNES:
TXPN28 KNES 240324
SIMWIR
A. 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 24/0232Z
C. 25.1N
D. 140.8E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...WMG ELONGATED EYE IS EMBEDDED IN MG AND SURROUNDED BY LG
RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.0. NO PLUS EYE ADJUSTMENT DUE TO ELONGATED EYE.
PT = 4.5 AND MET = 4.0. FT BASED ON PT.
NIL
...KIBLER
=
Decreasing winds at Iwo-to after peak gust to 99kt:
RJAW 240346Z 22048G72KT 1000 R07/0150V1100U +SHRA BR SCT002 BKN006 OVC010TCU 25/25 Q0979 RMK 3ST002 6ST006 8TCU010 A2893 TCU OHD MOV N P/RR WIND BY EQPT/07
RJAW 240332Z 22053G87KT 0800 R07/0150V0250N +SHRA FG SCT002 BKN006 OVC010TCU 25/25 Q0977 RMK 4ST002 6ST006 8TCU010 A2885 TCU OHD MOV N RI++ P/RR WIND BY EQPT/07
RJAW 240318Z 21063GP99KT 0800 R07/0050V0200D +SHRA FG SCT002 BKN006 OVC010TCU 25/25 Q0971 RMK 4ST002 6ST006 8TCU010 A2868
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MALAKAS (1012/13W) - Typhoon
Hey all, made another video for today, looks like 13W going to have one last blow up tonight before going extra-tropical. Anyhow..
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_w4SUJdofp8[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_w4SUJdofp8[/youtube]
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
Re: WPAC: MALAKAS (1012/13W) - Typhoon
Great update! I hadn't heard about the damage Fanapi did in China. Very sad. I have a friend in Seattle who has been complaining about the lack of thunderstorms. Wonder if they'll get a few good rumblers as Malakas turns extra-tropical and heads that way.
I'm surprised at the rapid change in the weather here as this trough moved in...temperatures that could climb near or over 100° with the heat index to pretty temperate weather with cool, but strong, winds at night. I've finally turned off the AC and have had the windows open the last two nights. Listen to me thinking 80° is "cool".
I'm surprised at the rapid change in the weather here as this trough moved in...temperatures that could climb near or over 100° with the heat index to pretty temperate weather with cool, but strong, winds at night. I've finally turned off the AC and have had the windows open the last two nights. Listen to me thinking 80° is "cool".
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WTPQ21 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 28.5N 141.7E GOOD
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 39.3N 147.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 30KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 261200UTC 46.0N 156.0E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
WTPN32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 26.2N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 30.7N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 36.2N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 41.3N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 45.7N 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 141.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 8 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 45 NM DIAMETER RAGGED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 240304Z TRMM
37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE WITH
ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES
OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 240532Z PGTW EYE
FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AT THE HIGHER END
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD, BASED ON AN OFF HOUR 240232Z PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
102 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF TY
13W AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC
TURNING ALOFT. TY MALAKAS HAS ROUNDED THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 13W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BY TAU 12, DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, BEFORE BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TY 13W IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH
BY TAU 48, AND SUSTAIN AS A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY; THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z,
250300Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN
TPPN11 PGTW 241213
A. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 24/1132Z
C. 28.5N
D. 141.7E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 50NM WMG EYE AND MG RING YIELDED
DT 4.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/0936Z 27.6N 141.5E TRMM
24/1010Z 28.1N 141.6E SSMS
BRANDON
472
TCNA21 RJTD 241200
CCAA 24120 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15285 11417 13334 250// 90123=
Latest ASCAT:
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 28.5N 141.7E GOOD
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 39.3N 147.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 30KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 261200UTC 46.0N 156.0E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
WTPN32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 26.2N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 30.7N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 36.2N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 41.3N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 45.7N 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 141.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 8 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 45 NM DIAMETER RAGGED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 240304Z TRMM
37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE WITH
ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES
OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 240532Z PGTW EYE
FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AT THE HIGHER END
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD, BASED ON AN OFF HOUR 240232Z PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
102 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF TY
13W AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC
TURNING ALOFT. TY MALAKAS HAS ROUNDED THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 13W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BY TAU 12, DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, BEFORE BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TY 13W IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH
BY TAU 48, AND SUSTAIN AS A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY; THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z,
250300Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN
TPPN11 PGTW 241213
A. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 24/1132Z
C. 28.5N
D. 141.7E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 50NM WMG EYE AND MG RING YIELDED
DT 4.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/0936Z 27.6N 141.5E TRMM
24/1010Z 28.1N 141.6E SSMS
BRANDON
472
TCNA21 RJTD 241200
CCAA 24120 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15285 11417 13334 250// 90123=
Latest ASCAT:
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-
RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MALAKAS (1012/13W) - Typhoon
Infidoll,
We actually just turned the AC off for the first time in a while here as well today, the high got up in to the low 70s today and we are still seeing some strong winds out of the N and much cooler temps currently. Its actually a relief, I like jacket weather better anyhow.
We actually just turned the AC off for the first time in a while here as well today, the high got up in to the low 70s today and we are still seeing some strong winds out of the N and much cooler temps currently. Its actually a relief, I like jacket weather better anyhow.
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