WPAC: MALAKAS (1012/13W) - Ex Typhoon

[dexterlabio]

I was quite disappointed upon seeing how it looks today. Last night it seems so fine but now increasing shear started affecting it. Shear is one mean villain for tropical cyclones.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I only wish every storm could get this much shear.. would make this forum boring.. but would make life easier too.

Right about 30-40kts in the NE periphery.. No surprise the storm is being torn apart.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just posted a video at Westpacwx... kind of explained my thoughts on the track with that trough if anyone is curios...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAJ9cj2dRTc[/youtube]

Another thing, one big thing with this storm is the mass amount of fuel from the high SST's...

[Chacor]

JMA has Malakas at 45 kt at 12z.

[supercane]

SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 009
WTPN32 PGTW 220900
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 19.5N 142.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 142.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.4N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.9N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.7N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.6N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 35.0N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 45.6N 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 142.0E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
//
BT
#00




TXPN28 KNES 220912
SIMWIR
A. 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 22/0832Z
C. 19.2N
D. 142.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED
ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
22/0317Z 19.0N 142.2E TMI
22/0731Z 19.3N 142.1E SSMIS
...LIDDICK
=

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 19.5N 141.8E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 21.9N 140.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 241200UTC 27.4N 140.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 251200UTC 36.5N 146.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 25KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =



WTPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 141.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.0N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.4N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.9N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.9N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 38.2N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 48.5N 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 141.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN




TPPN11 PGTW 221209
A. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 22/1132Z
C. 19.8N
D. 141.8E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON
LOG-10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET
AGREE. A 1032Z SSMI IMAGE AIDED IN THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/0731Z 19.8N 142.1E SSMS
22/0840Z 19.6N 142.1E SSMS
22/1032Z 19.9N 142.2E SSMS
KIENZLE



065
TCNA21 RJTD 221200
CCAA 22120 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15195 11418 14224 225// 92805=

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looks like some enhanced convection in the past few hours. Possible indication of the ridge giving way as the trough builds in...

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 19.6N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 22.4N 140.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 241200UTC 27.4N 140.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 251200UTC 36.5N 146.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 25KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

WDPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL BEING DISPLACED EQUATORWARD
FROM THE LLCC DUE TO NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW FORMED BY THE MOVEMENT OF A TUTT CELL
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. MALAKAS HAS TRACKED STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE YELLOW SEA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD AS WELL AS FROM RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATES OF APPROXIMATELY 45 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BY A 221128Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. ALTHOUGH TS MALAKAS IS CURRENTLY BEING SUPPRESSED BY UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON ITS NORTHERN FLANK, IT IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A SERIES
OF TUTT CELLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ACCORDINGLY, TS 13W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
STEADILY AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BEFORE 24/00Z AS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST LIES JUST WEST OF THE JTWC
CONSENSUS SINCE THE GFS TRACKER CONTINUES TO REFLECT AN IMPROBABLY
SHARP POLEWARD TURN BY TAU 12.
C. THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL ALSO ACT TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE, GIVING THE SYSTEM AN ALLEY TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDES. BY TAU 48, EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AS THE
SYSTEM NEARS 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND STARTS COUPLING WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SURFACE AND GRADIENT-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
AROUND THE STORM WILL EXPAND AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONG BARO-
CLINIC ZONE AND COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP, NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN VIGOROUS IN ITS WARM SECTOR AS
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH 35 DEGREES NORTH. THE
SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW BEFORE CROSSING 40 DEGREES NORTH AROUND TAU 72.//
NNNN


TXPN28 KNES 221524
SIMWIR
A. 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 22/1432Z
C. 20.2N
D. 142.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/TMI/AMSU
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM LLC BEST SEEN IN MI DATA WITH LLC PARTLY EXPOSED
N OF CONVECTION. DT=2.5 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN. FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
22/1128Z 19.6N 141.8E TMI
22/1150Z 20.1N 141.9E AMSU
...SWANSON
=

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 19.6N 141.1E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 230NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 22.6N 140.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 241800UTC 29.1N 142.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 251800UTC 37.9N 147.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 25KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =



WTPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 141.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 141.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.3N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.2N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.4N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 30.6N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 40.5N 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 50.0N 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 140.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE TIGHTLY
WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221613Z AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION,
WHICH IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INFRARED AND AMSU IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW
INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST REMAINS GOOD. TS 13W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE. A MID-LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE YELLOW SEA, SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND TRACK EASTWARD.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND ALLOW TS MALAKAS TO TURN POLEWARD. TS
13W WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AROUND TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO INTERACT
WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH BY TAU 48 AND
TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 72. TS 13W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO
THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
OF THE TROUGH, TS 13W SHOULD TRANSITION INTO AN INTENSE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN




TXPN28 KNES 222117
SIMWIR
A. 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 22/2032Z
C. 20.2N
D. 141.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. SWIR/VIS/AMSU
H. REMARKS...POSITION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT BELIEVED TO BE LESS THEN 3/4
DEGREE FROM EDGE OF CONVECTION AS SEEN IN MORNING VIS RESULTING IN A DT
OF 2.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 3.0. FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
22/1613Z 19.9N 142.0E AMSU
...TURK
=




TPPN11 PGTW 222118
A. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 22/2032Z
C. 20.0N
D. 141.0E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/1613Z 19.8N 141.5E MMHS
DARLOW



341
TCNA21 RJTD 221800
CCAA 22180 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15195 11412 14334 230// 92706=

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 19.8N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 240NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 23.4N 140.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 250000UTC 31.2N 143.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 260000UTC 41.5N 151.5E 325NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

943
TCNA21 RJTD 230000
CCAA 23000 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15199 11409 14334 235// 93205=

TPPN11 PGTW 230023
A. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 22/2332Z
C. 19.6N
D. 141.0E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPPED A 1.50 ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF A 4.5. MET YIELDS A 4.0. PT YIELDS A
4.0. DBO DT. SIX HOURLY CONSTRAINTS WERE BROKEN FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/2005Z 19.8N 141.1E SSMS
22/2113Z 19.6N 141.3E SSMS
GATES

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 19.8N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 240NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 23.4N 140.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 250000UTC 31.2N 143.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 260000UTC 41.5N 151.5E 325NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =



WTPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 012
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 13W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 19.8N 141.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 141.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.4N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.0N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.9N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 31.8N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 42.2N 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 50.7N 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 140.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//


WDPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS AND HAS
INTENSIFIED BY 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION
OVER THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
222113Z 37V SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS AND MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AS WELL AS POSITION ESTIMATES FROM A 222351Z ITOP VORTEX
MESSAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS, IN ADDITION TO THE VORTEX
MESSAGE REPORTING 69 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTH HAS MOVED
FARTHER NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINS GOOD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 13W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. A MID-LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW TY MALAKAS TO TURN POLEWARD. TY 13W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AROUND TAU 36, TY 13W WILL ROUND
THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION FULLY
INTO AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT GAINS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.//

[supercane]

ITOP_2010 weather summary

Date(UTC): 2010/09/22 23:00
Author: Gary Foley
Submitted at(UTC): 2010/09/22 19:27
Revised at(UTC): 2010/09/22 22:48

DAY 1 (Tomorrow) Update:

ITOP22: Malakas development has been halted overnight. Aircraft
reccon showed tilting with height. MW imagery showed the low
level center well away from the main convection. A forecast
decrease in the shear over the storm will allow it to get back
on an intensification trend but time available to deepen will be
limited as it heads into the higher latitudes and undergoes
extratropical transition. Max wind at 24/00Z forecast 70kts (US
1-min mean)

ITOP Center guidance chart:


JTWC guidance:

ops.JTWC_track.201009221800.13_track.gif



EC EPS forecast:


TROPICAL CYCLONE BRIEF
Storm ID: ITOP022 Name: ITOP022
Issued at: 2134 UTC 22/09/2010
Data at: 1800 UTC 22 September 2010

TECHNICAL REMARKS
** Working track only - for information **

2 x ECMWF and1 x UK Track and 1 x GFS. Models consistent in
track however speed of movement differences become apparent as
TC speeds up.

All models consistent in recurvature of Malakas and transition
to extra-tropical storm.

Latitude: 19.7N
Longitude: 141.7E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm (95 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (223 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h)

Bearing 1: From Guam
At +0: 410 nm (770 km) north northwest
At +12: 520 nm (960 km) north northwest
At +24: 640 nm (1180 km) north northwest
At +36: 810 nm (1510 km) north northwest
At +48: 1070 nm (1990 km) north
At +60: 1390 nm (2570 km) north
At +72:

FORECAST DATA *** Mean wind is 10 minute mean wind ***
Date/Time : Location : Acc : Mean: Max : Pres :
(UTC) : degrees : nm : kts : kts : hPa : 3
+0 : 22/1800 : 19.7N 141.7E : 050 : 040 : 055 : 995 :
+6 : 23/0000 : 20.6N 141.1E : 065 : 045 : 080 : 990 :
+12 : 23/0600 : 21.4N 141.0E : 080 : 045 : 080 : 980 :
+18 : 23/1200 : 22.2N 140.9E : 095 : 050 : 070 : 975 :
+24 : 23/1800 : 23.4N 141.0E : 110 : 055 : 080 : 950 :
+36 : 24/0600 : 26.6N 141.5E : 140 : 070 : 100 : 950 :
+48 : 24/1800 : 31.3N 143.3E : 170 : 075 : 105 : 940 :
+60 : 25/0600 : 36.5N 146.7E : 220 : 065 : 090 : 950 :

*** 10 minute mean wind - increase by about 10% to get to 1
minute mean wind***

DAY 2 (Day after tomorrow) Forecast:

ITOP22: Forecast position for 24/00Z has been consistent for a
number of days in most models. Some spread in track occurs after
that period as the system starts to accelerate, however the
recurvature scenario remains strong. Structural asymmetries with
strongest winds on the eastern side are forecast. At 24/12Z max
wind forecast 80-85kts (right of track).

ITOP 24: ITOP24 remains a convective feature moving west.
Forecast to be in Guam longitudes on 26th and around 135E on 28
September.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 20.1N 140.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 240NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 24.0N 140.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 250000UTC 31.2N 143.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 260000UTC 41.5N 151.5E 325NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

03Z JTWC advisory graphic:


TXPN28 KNES 230314
SIMWIR
A. 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 23/0232Z
C. 20.4N
D. 141.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0.
MET = 3.5 AND PT = 3.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
22/2113Z 19.9N 140.9E SSMIS
...KIBLER
=



And VDM from earlier from ITOP:
213

URPA12 PGUA 230000

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/23:51:00Z
B. 19 deg 55 min N
141 deg 13 min E
C. 700 mb 2969 m
D. 69 kt
E. 075 deg 57 nm
F. 146 deg 86 kt
G. 073 deg 65 nm
H. 985 mb
I. 8 C / 3047 m
J. 14 C / 3050 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 0.02 nm
P. AF304 0222W MALAKAS OB 26
MAX FL WIND 86 KT E QUAD 22:29:50Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 311 / 22 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Chacor]

JMA is up to 60 kt/975 hPa.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 20.4N 140.9E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 24.8N 140.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 250600UTC 33.0N 144.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 260600UTC 42.5N 153.1E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =



104
TCNA21 RJTD 230600
CCAA 23060 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15204 11409 14344 240// 90105

TPPN11 PGTW 230626
A. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 23/0532Z
C. 20.7N
D. 140.4E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T3.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .80 WRAP YIELDING 3.5 DT. MET AND
PT AGREE. DBO DT. REANALYSIS OF 2330Z FIX REVEALED FT WAS
PROBABLY TOO HIGH.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BRANDON
=

[RobWESTPACWX]

13W back to a typhoon, seeing some DAA actually working in to now. Pretty odvios on the IR shot picture. Could already start weakening as it goes sub-tropical?

But already seeing some convection blowing up to the NW of the storm as it interacts with this from, I think this is going to be a very deep/strong low once it gets wrapped up with that frontal boundary.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Also, the admins stated I could post my videos here now!!! So below is my thoughts for today on 13W. Let me know what you guys think, it's one thing briefing weather to most people but when your giving it to METS and WX geeks alike I'm sure there will be all sorts of comments.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDYmBmyeyAs[/youtube]

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 21.2N 140.9E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 26.5N 141.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 251200UTC 36.5N 147.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 28KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 261200UTC 44.7N 158.0E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =



SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 013
WTPN32 PGTW 230900
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 013
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 13W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 140.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 140.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.6N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.1N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 30.5N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 35.7N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 45.3N 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 51.3N 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 140.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 21.9N 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 140.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.7N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.7N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 33.6N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 38.6N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 47.7N 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 140.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z
IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN




TPPN11 PGTW 231215
A. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 23/1132Z
C. 21.9N
D. 140.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN. .70
WRAP YIELDING 3.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/1021Z 21.5N 140.7E SSMS
BRANDON



203
TCNA21 RJTD 231200
CCAA 23120 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15212 11409 14244 240// 93608=

[RobWESTPACWX]

That microwave shot is is really displaying a lot of DAA wrapping in to it. Hopefully this will weaken it more.