WPAC: MALAKAS (1012/13W) - Ex Typhoon

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supercane
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#121 Postby supercane » Fri Sep 24, 2010 3:55 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 30.9N 142.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 25KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 40.9N 148.8E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

952
TCNA21 RJTD 241800
CCAA 24180 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15309 11428 12334 250// 90226=

Image


TPPN11 PGTW 241813
A. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 24/1732Z
C. 31.1N
D. 142.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 34A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. 30NM WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY
DG YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
UEHARA
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#122 Postby supercane » Fri Sep 24, 2010 4:04 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 31.2N 142.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.2N 142.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 36.5N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 41.6N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 32.5N 143.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS
NOW WELL UNDERWAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WHILE THE LOW LEVELS MAINTAIN
CORE CONVECTION AND A CLEARLY DISCERNABLE 30 NM EYE. AN UPPER AIR
SOUNDING FROM CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, REVEALS THAT STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLIES IN THE STORM'S SOUTHERN QUADRANT EXTEND THROUGHOUT
THE TROPOSPHERE WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD COUPLING WITH A VIGOROUS JET STREAM TO THE NORTH OF THE
STORM. TYPHOON 13W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND
WINDS ABOVE TYPHOON STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO GOOD
ORGANIZATION AT THE BOUNDARYLEVEL AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG ITS TRACK. AS TYPHOON 13W CROSSES OVER THE KUROSHIO CURRENT AND
ENTERS COOLER WATER NEAR 35 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, AND TRACKS UNDER
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 12-24. HOWEVER, IT WILL MOVE UNDER A
DEEP AND NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AND MAINTAIN STORM FORCE SURFACE
WINDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//

Image

URPA12 PGUA 241852
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/18:39:50Z
B. 31 deg 44 min N
142 deg 42 min E
C. 700 mb 2672 m
D. 83 kt
E. 167 deg 27 nm
F. 144 deg 122 kt
G. 162 deg 26 nm
H. 947 mb
I. 10 C / 3031 m
J. 19 C / 3043 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.05 nm
P. AF307 0422W MALAKAS OB 19
MAX FL WIND 122 KT S QUAD 17:29:50Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 135 / 18 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
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#123 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Sep 24, 2010 7:33 pm

At CPA here in YOKO saw some high winds, pretty gusty at times. Actually at the MET center a max gust was recorded of 51kts. It looked really grim outside for awhile actually. But it passed; still have overcast skies here. A little breezy. Seems like Japan really dodged a bullet on this one.
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#124 Postby supercane » Fri Sep 24, 2010 8:12 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 34.2N 144.4E GOOD
MOVE NNE 30KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 450NM NORTHEAST 280NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 43.0N 152.0E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Image

Dvorak classifications T5.0 from RJTD, T4.0 from PGTW, T5.5 from KNES

758
TCNA21 RJTD 250000
CCAA 25000 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15342 11444 12334 250// 90235=

TPPN11 PGTW 250010
A. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 24/2332Z
C. 34.1N
D. 144.2E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED
IN DG YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/2017Z 32.5N 143.0E SSMI
UEHARA

Image

TXPN28 KNES 242107
SIMWIR
A. 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 24/2032Z
C. 32.6N
D. 143.4E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT=5.5 BASED ON LG RING WITH WMG EYE. PT=5.5. MET=5.5. FT
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ
=

Image
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#125 Postby supercane » Fri Sep 24, 2010 10:48 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 36.0N 145.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 35KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 140NM
30KT 550NM EAST 280NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260300UTC 45.0N 154.0E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Image

JTWC issues last advisory due to ETT at typhoon strength:
WTPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 34.0N 144.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0N 144.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 39.5N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 44.2N 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 35.4N 145.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 32
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. POSITION IS BASED ON VISUAL IMAGERY
AND A 242334Z ASCAT IMAGE. THE WINDFIELD INDICATED BY THE ASCAT
IMAGE VERIFIES A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE WINDFIELD AHEAD OF THE STORM
WHICH SHOWS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS ON BOTH SIDES AS COOLER DRIER AIR IS
SPILLING OVER HONSHU AND FEEDING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 242239Z SSMIS
IMAGE ALSO CONFIRM THAT THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY UNDERGOING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. EYE-WALL COLLAPSE IS NOW EVIDENT AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM HAVE COUPLED
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. TY MALAKAS' UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAVE NOW DE-COUPLED. DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS SHEARING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND IS NEARLY COMPLETELY GONE OVER THE EQUATORWARD QUADRANTS OF THE
SYSTEM. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT IN PROJECTING
THE STORM TO MOVE RAPIDLY INTO A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN HONSHU INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC, WHERE IT WILL BECOME A
STORM FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY TAU 12. THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 33 FEET.//
Image
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS (1012/13W) - Typhoon

#126 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Sep 24, 2010 11:14 pm

New Video just made on the final warning and 13W extra-tropical transition. Hope you guys enjoy!!
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Etqe62BjIcY[/youtube]
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#127 Postby Chacor » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:04 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 251500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251500UTC 40.0N 149.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 550NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 261500UTC 49.3N 160.2E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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#128 Postby supercane » Sat Sep 25, 2010 2:20 pm

No longer tropical but still going strong at 75kt as a strong ET cyclone in JMA's last advisory at 18Z:

WTPQ21 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TY 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 41N 150E
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 956HPA
MXWD 075KT
30KT 600NM EAST 300NM WEST =

Image

Image
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#129 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Sep 25, 2010 10:36 pm

ya this is still a very strong storm, right around 990mb with a very tight pressure gradient especially along the western side.
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#130 Postby Chacor » Sat Sep 25, 2010 11:45 pm

JMA's 0000 UTC analysis on the extratropical low:

STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 968 HPA
AT 44N 153E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 44N 153E TO 45N 155E 45N 160E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 160E TO 43N 167E 40N 172E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 160E TO 40N 160E 34N 155E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 34N 155E TO 33N 152E 31N 150E 29N 146E.
WINDS 30 TO 70 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 52N 165E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS (1012/13W) - Ex Typhoon

#131 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sun Sep 26, 2010 5:15 pm

Wow, good morning everyone, just wanted to show everyone this, very very deep low right now around 960mb and dropping! That is insane!! Also showing sea heights out of the region near 40ft! Thats a few stories up and down on a boat..

Image
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