WPAC: MALAKAS (1012/13W) - Ex Typhoon

[RobWESTPACWX]

This is now TS Malakas.

Malakas means powerful in Filipino....A sign of things to come?

Wow, didnt even think of that, I wonder if it will live up to its name.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 18.0N 144.6E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 18.6N 142.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 231200UTC 20.4N 140.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 241200UTC 24.6N 140.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =



WTPN32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 144.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 144.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.4N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.7N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.6N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.8N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.4N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 34.1N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 43.8N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 144.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210654Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG A CONVERGENT
BAND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
THE DEVELOPED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 13W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
STARTS TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO ROUND
THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 72. AS TS 13W APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, REACHING MAXIMUM INTENSITY BY
TAU 72 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 96, TS 13W WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TRANSITION
INTO A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY THOUGH
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE GUIDANCE IN CONSIDERATION OF THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z
AND 220900Z.//
NNNN



Dvoraks:
489
TCNA21 RJTD 211200
CCAA 21120 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15179 11444 14244 230// 92905=

TPPN11 PGTW 211215
A. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 21/1132Z
C. 19.0N
D. 144.7E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .55 ON
LOG-10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. FT BASED ON DT PT AND MET
AGREE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
KIENZLE


TXPN28 KNES 210917
SIMWIR
A. 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 21/0832Z
C. 17.9N
D. 144.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING. MET IS 2.0 WITH PT OF 2.5.
FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LIDDICK
=

[Chacor]

FWIW, there is a tropical storm warning in effect for Agrihan currently.

WTPQ32 PGUM 211245
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (13W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132010
1100 PM CHST TUE SEP 21 2010

...TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (13W) WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

AT 1000 PM CHST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (13W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.7
DEGREES EAST...POSITION RELOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THIS IS ABOUT 65 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
95 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
275 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND
385 MILES NORTH OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (13W) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (13W) IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CHST POSITION...19.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 144.7 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM.

$$

AYDLETT

[supercane]

JTWC 15Z advisory out, increases winds to 40kt:
WTPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 19.0N 144.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 144.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.3N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.8N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.7N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.1N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.5N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 37.6N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 45.9N 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 144.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN



From the local statement, effects on Agrihan won't be that severe:
...AGRIHAN...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY MUST BE COMPLETED AT THIS
TIME. STAY IN SUITABLE SHELTER AGAINST DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN
...AND HAVE ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF FOOD AND DRINKING WATER UNTIL WINDS
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...DECREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS AROUND 10 TO 12 FEET WITH SURF HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 14
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ON EXPOSED SHORELINES THROUGH TONIGHT. COASTAL
INUNDATION OF ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS LIKELY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING OF POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LAYING AREAS.

[KWT]

Those islands in the forecasted path of this system need to keep a close eye on this system, I'd guess they have had a fair few hits in the past from recurving systems but this one is expected to be between 90-100kts by that point!

I suspect this one will be our next 100+ type system for 1 min means...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well, their is some god news, not really too worried about those islands, IWO TO (IWO JIMA) has about 5 buildings on it and the rest are volcanic with little to no permanent residence. Like you said they have had there fair share of storms, the buildings on IWO TO are hard concrete, I'm sure designed with typhoons in mind.

[RobWESTPACWX]

On that note will be interesting watching observations coming from those islands, good vantage point for some gusty winds.

[dhoeze]

Guys,

can you PM me a link where i could see the trough or the steering system that would push Malakas to go North North East.

Appreciate it. The reason is that my amateur eyes are still seeing West SouthWest movement.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 18.9N 143.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 19.8N 141.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 240000UTC 22.3N 140.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 250000UTC 27.4N 141.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[Chacor]

WTPQ32 PGUM 212212
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (13W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP132010
800 AM CHST WED SEP 22 2010

...TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (13W) WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 800 AM CHST...2200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (13W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.5
DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 215 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
240 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
380 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND
455 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (13W) IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH.
MALAKAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (13W) IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 800 AM CHST POSITION...19.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
142.5 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

AYDLETT

[StormingB81]

I still don't see that WNW movement they are talking about maybe I am missing something. Maybe it is me using the naked eye and not really looking at it.

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 19.5N 142.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 142.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.4N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.1N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.2N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.9N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 32.7N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 43.0N 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 142.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z,
222100Z AND 230300Z.
//


WDPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
300 NM SOUTH-SOPUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 211629Z AMSR-E 89GHZ IMAGE, AND A 2321Z VISUAL
IMAGE ALL COMBINE TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE POSITION CONFIDENCE. THE
SYSTEM HAS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS BEING DISPLACED EQUATORWARD FROM THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS OUTFLOW OVER THE POLEWARD QUADRANTS IS BEING
SUPPRESSED BY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, RESULTING IN THE STORM
DEVELOPING AT A LOWER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS A DEEPENING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE YELLOW SEA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 13W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON ITS NORTHERN FLANK, IT IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ACT TO
WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALONG THE 140TH MERIDIAN, GIVING THE SYSTEM AN
ALLEY TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. AS TS 13W APPROACHES THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE AND SLOWS BEFORE RECURVATURE, POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WILL INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY, REACHING
TYPHOON STRENGTH BY 22/06Z. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK INCLUDING THE AREA OF RECURVATURE, WITH
SOME VARIATION IN TIMING. ECMWF, TYPICALLY A STRONG PERFORMER,
PROJECTS THE SLOWEST AND LATEST TURN AROUND THE RIDGE. THE FORECAST
ADJUSTS CONSENSUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN COGNIZANCE OF THIS TENDENCY BUT
OTHERWISE ADHERES CLOSELY TO CONSENSUS DUE TO STRONG AGREEMENT AND
COHERENT SCENARIO PRESENTED BY THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
C. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES 30
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND BEGINS COUPLING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. SURFACE AND GRADIENT-LEVEL WINDFIELDS AROUND THE STORM
WILL EXPAND AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONGLY BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP, NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN VIGOROUS IN ITS WARM SECTOR AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH 35 DEGREES NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL
OCCLUDE AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW
BEFORE CROSSING 40 DEGREES NORTH.
//


TPPN11 PGTW 220021 COR
A. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 21/2332Z
C. 19.4N
D. 142.7E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .40 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS AN UNREP
2.0. DBO DT. CORRECTED TIME IN MANOP HEADER.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/1926Z 19.6N 142.9E SSMI
21/2017Z 19.5N 142.9E SSMS
21/2125Z 19.4N 142.8E SSMS
UEHARA

270
TCNA21 RJTD 220000
CCAA 22000 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15189 11433 14236 230// 93107=

[supercane]

Vis with exposed center:


Microwave with largely convectionless center:


ITOP discussion:
200mb patterns: EC had the High west of the convection at
initial time step - future projections do not indicate any
inhibition to forecast intensification.

DAY 1 (Tomorrow) Update:

ITOP22 (Malakas): Although it has intensified into a Tropical
Storm, its development curve has not been rapid over last 24
hours due to increasing upper winds as the 200mb anticyclone
center moved west of the low level center. Development should
continue however. Models are consistent about its future
movement and intensification. There is very little change in the
medium and longer range forecast for this storm with slow
movement giving way to acceleration to the NE and transition
into extra-tropical characteristics.

ITOP Center guidance chart:


JTWC guidance:
ops.JTWC_track.201009211800.13_track.gif


ECMWF EPS prediction


TROPICAL CYCLONE BRIEF
Storm ID: ITOP022 Name: ITOP022
Issued at: 2146 UTC 21/09/2010
Data at: 1800 UTC 21 September 2010

TECHNICAL REMARKS
** Working track only - for information **

2 x ECMWF and1 x UK Track and 1 x GFS. Models consistent in
track however GFS a little faster and east of other tracks.

Latitude: 19.3N
Longitude: 142.9E
Location Accuracy: within 70 nm (130 km)
Movement Towards: west (275 deg)
Speed of Movement: 11 knots (20 km/h)

Bearing 1: From Guam
At +0: 370 nm (680 km) north northwest
At +12: 420 nm (780 km) north northwest
At +24: 490 nm (900 km) north northwest
At +36: 560 nm (1050 km) north northwest
At +48: 670 nm (1250 km) north northwest
At +60: 820 nm (1530 km) north northwest
At +72: 1060 nm (1960 km) north

FORECAST DATA *** Mean wind is 10 minute mean wind ***
Date/Time : Location : Acc : Mean: Max : Pres :
(UTC) : degrees : nm : kts : kts : hPa : 3
+0 : 21/1800 : 19.3N 142.9E : 070 : 035 : 050 : 990 :
+6 : 22/0000 : 19.5N 142.4E : 085 : 040 : 060 : 990 :
+12 : 22/0600 : 19.9N 142.0E : 100 : 045 : 065 : 980 :
+18 : 22/1200 : 20.3N 141.6E : 115 : 050 : 070 : 970 :
+24 : 22/1800 : 20.8N 141.2E : 130 : 055 : 080 : 960 :
+36 : 23/0600 : 21.9N 140.5E : 160 : 065 : 085 : 950 :
+48 : 23/1800 : 23.9N 140.5E : 190 : 075 : 105 : 945 :
+60 : 24/0600 : 26.8N 141.3E : 240 : 080 : 115 : 940 :
+72 : 24/1800 : 31.0N 143.2E : 290 : 090 : 120 : 935 :
+84 : 25/0600 : 36.5N 146.8E : 290 : 080 : 115 : 945 :

*** 10 minute mean wind - increase by about 10% to get to 1
minute mean wind***

DAY 2 (Day after tomorrow) Forecast:

ITOP22: At 23/00Z Malakas should be near to the point of
recurvature and if its development curve continues would be near
to Typhoon strength. Recurvature should be underway by 23/12Z
and Malakas should pass close to Iwo Jima on 24/00, gathering
speed and beginning the extra-tropical process.

[Infdidoll]

I am putting full faith in weather forecasts that have it going off to the North and then NE, right now. The high pressure areas to the West make this look pretty indisputable at the moment. I don't think there is anything to worry about unless it happens to stall out for a long period of time where weather patterns off to the West change. Right now, we're protected nicely. I just hope my husband will be safe wherever he is out there in the Pacific! Last I heard, he was on a boat out there near Guam...but I'm sure they're steering well clear of this storm.

We had a late storm, last season, Choi Wan, that followed a very similar track. It got up to a Category 5 super typhoon and had some really impressive T numbers. I remember everyone here being pretty excited to watch it for the guiltless, nerdy pleasure of watching a storm so intense that posed no danger to anyone.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Guys,

can you PM me a link where i could see the trough or the steering system that would push Malakas to go North North East.

Appreciate it. The reason is that my amateur eyes are still seeing West SouthWest movement.

Below is a 500mb chart from KMA, showing the trough over Japan.... Just posted it here for everyone..

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 19.3N 142.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 20.7N 140.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 240000UTC 22.3N 140.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 250000UTC 27.4N 141.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =



Latest ASCAT:


Latest Dvorak:

TXPN28 KNES 220316
SIMWIR
A. 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 22/0232Z
C. 19.0N
D. 142.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT OF 3.0 BASED ON .45 WHITE BANDING. MET AND PT ARE 2.5.
FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LIDDICK
=

[StormingB81]

So this thing is almost directly south of Iwo To still no turn....But like it has been said we have seen this before and they still make that turn..I think it just wants to playwith us a little bit.

[supercane]

Decreasing T numbers from JMA, with T2.5 at latest update. Steady at T2.5 from JTWC.
002
TCNA21 RJTD 220600
CCAA 22060 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15199 11424 14224 225// 93213=

TPPN11 PGTW 220609
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 22/0532Z
C. 19.2N
D. 142.5E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON
LOG-10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET
AGREE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/0039Z 19.7N 143.0E MMHS
22/0339Z 19.6N 142.0E MMHS
KIENZLE

dhoeze, as JTWC mentions in their prognostic reasoning, the primary steering for Malakas is the subtropical ridge. The apparent SW motion is due to the system's convection being suppressed to the south. The relevant excerpt:

. TS 13W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON ITS NORTHERN FLANK, IT IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ACT TO
WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALONG THE 140TH MERIDIAN, GIVING THE SYSTEM AN
ALLEY TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. AS TS 13W APPROACHES THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE AND SLOWS BEFORE RECURVATURE, POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WILL INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY, REACHING
TYPHOON STRENGTH BY 22/06Z. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK INCLUDING THE AREA OF RECURVATURE, WITH
SOME VARIATION IN TIMING. ECMWF, TYPICALLY A STRONG PERFORMER,
PROJECTS THE SLOWEST AND LATEST TURN AROUND THE RIDGE. THE FORECAST
ADJUSTS CONSENSUS SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN COGNIZANCE OF THIS TENDENCY BUT
OTHERWISE ADHERES CLOSELY TO CONSENSUS DUE TO STRONG AGREEMENT AND
COHERENT SCENARIO PRESENTED BY THE DYNAMIC AIDS.

You can see this ridge in the CIMSS steering flow product, with this one for weak systems.

[dhoeze]

thanks supercane and RobWESTPACWX . really lots of learning here.

[phwxenthusiast]

should turn before reaching 140E... that's what most models are showing now, good agreement...