ATL: LISA - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[pepeavilenho]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008102207
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2010, DB, O, 2010080812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942010
AL, 94, 2010080818, , BEST, 0, 275N, 815W, 20, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080900, , BEST, 0, 270N, 816W, 20, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080906, , BEST, 0, 265N, 819W, 20, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080912, , BEST, 0, 262N, 823W, 20, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 125, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010080918, , BEST, 0, 259N, 825W, 20, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 125, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010081000, , BEST, 0, 256N, 826W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010081006, , BEST, 0, 255N, 830W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010081012, , BEST, 0, 256N, 835W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010081018, , BEST, 0, 257N, 839W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

I'm the winner

[cycloneye]

This is the correct best track file for new invest 94L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009181249
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2010, DB, O, 2010091812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942010
AL, 94, 2010091712, , BEST, 0, 121N, 246W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010091718, , BEST, 0, 122N, 252W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010091800, , BEST, 0, 123N, 257W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010091806, , BEST, 0, 125N, 262W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010091812, , BEST, 0, 128N, 267W, 25, 1008, DB, 34

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Cyclone1]

Wow, I actually caught an INVEST early for once. I'm proud of myself.

[HURAKAN]

I think SAL will be hindering development

[expat2carib]

Moving WNW. Another miss of the Islands? Hopefully.

[HURAKAN]

Another shot

[cycloneye]

Link to thread at Talking tropics forum that discussed about this system.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109375&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[HURAKAN]

you can see the dry air north of the CVI

[Aquawind]

While it looks like a healthy little wave I agree the SAL blob to the north will be a hinderance for development unfortunately..Otherwise I could see a fish like Julia.. However the SAL should help keep it weak and allow it to get further west for trouble down the road possibly..Weaker west has verified this year...fortunately systems have strengthened early and thus we have had a fishy season..so far.

[bvigal]

Uhhh, fishy season if you don't live in the islands or Mexico!

[emeraldislencguy]

i dont think the people in Bermuda would say fishy season
wish we could just get past the fishy stage
bermuda is facing a disaster and we say FISH
and tell the people who have gotten caught in rip currents or families who have lost loved ones "fishy season'

[ColinDelia]

Another view of the SAL with the track basically forecast by Euro, GFS and UKMet.

[Aquawind]

I doubt it will be a cane with that track..

[bvigal]

I'm going to reserve judgement about whether to write this one off, until a few more model runs. The initial are usually wrong. Any feature that hinders development will result in more westerly track. It was 10% earlier today, now up to 30%, and that in itself indicates the models are changing their tune.

[CrazyC83]

If it goes straight north, it is going nowhere. Needs to ride low to survive.

[somethingfunny]

Maybe it will "earmark" the name Lisa before degenerating like Gaston did, only this time it would actually regenerate in the Caribbean.

[plasticup]

i dont think the people in Bermuda would say fishy season
wish we could just get past the fishy stage
bermuda is facing a disaster and we say FISH
and tell the people who have gotten caught in rip currents or families who have lost loved ones "fishy season'

No joke. Three storms have triggered watches and warnings in Bermuda this season. That's over one quarter of the season's systems.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/1200 UTC 12.6N 28.0W T1.0/1.0 INVEST

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[brunota2003]

Weren't the models showing a pattern change after Igor moves out of the way? They were showing ridging building in...or weas that only in the western ATL?