ATL: LISA - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.0     3.4     3.4


[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 14, 2010092112, , BEST, 0, 179N, 317W, 40, 1002, TS

Up to 40 kts.

[HurricaneBelle]

Latest

Lisa's a big girl.

[CrazyC83]

Could she follow in the footsteps of her brothers and sisters Danielle, Earl, Igor and Julia and become an intense storm herself?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 14, 2010092118, , BEST, 0, 182N, 316W, 40, 1002, TS

[Cyclone1]

Could she follow in the footsteps of her brothers and sisters Danielle, Earl, Igor and Julia and become an intense storm herself?

It's actually gotten to the point where I'm expecting exactly that. Seems like it's the hip thing to do.

[Pedro Fernández]

From Spain, we are monitoring the progresses of LISA, as an interaction between that tropical cyclone and a deep trough in the Eastern Atlantic could result in a PRE development. That PRE could affect to the Canary Islands. Generous rainfalls are forecasted tomorrow along them.

I leave a link, if you are able to read Spanish.

Thank you very much.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[pepeavilenho]

Yes, Canary Islands need to be warned tomorrow with this PRE.




I leave some links, they are in English.

DANA-Pen Interaction tropical PRE

Tropical Storm Lisa (14L MDR)

mmm....Nice organization with LISA, DVORAK says 53 kts

[HURAKAN]

Sorry to ask but what is PRE?

[HURAKAN]

Sorry to ask but what is PRE?

Got it! (predecessor rainfall event)

[HurrMark]

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS...WHICH USUALLY FAVORS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS BELOW 40 PERCENT AFTER 24 HOURS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY
AIR...JULIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO THE IMPROVED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT A 75-PERCENT EYEWALL
FEATURE EXISTED 6 HRS AGO AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED TO
BELOW -80C NEAR THE CENTER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP LISA SOUTH OF
20N LATITUDE AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH
48 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 18.3N 31.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 18.6N 31.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 19.0N 31.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 19.3N 32.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 19.7N 33.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 20.4N 34.7W 55 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 36.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 21.0N 38.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

I wonder if they are hinting something...

[Pedro Fernández]

Sorry to ask but what is PRE?

Got it! (predecessor rainfall event)

Look at this case of study: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20080906/

The conceptual model of a PRE:

[Macrocane]

Interesting, I didn't know what a PRE was either, thanks for the info.

By the way it seems that Stewart has not gotten over Julia yet.

[sargeabernathy]

I wonder if they are hinting something...

They must be, or if it is an honest mistake it was made only because Julia is on their minds. Note what else they said in that paragraph:

AIR...JULIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO THE IMPROVED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT A 75-PERCENT EYEWALL
FEATURE EXISTED 6 HRS AGO AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED TO
BELOW -80C NEAR THE CENTER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP LISA SOUTH OF
20N LATITUDE AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH
48 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION.

[Pedro Fernández]

Here is my interpretation of the latest satellite image (IR+RGB):



We are monitoring the progresses of that PRE, as it is an inmediate threat for the Canary Islands.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[bob rulz]

It looks very good, intensity will definitely go up again at 11 as long as it doesn't collapse.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 14, 2010092200, , BEST, 0, 182N, 313W, 40, 1002, TS

no change

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

On a scale of 1 to 5 for the possibility of RI, I put this one at about a 3 for RI happening during the next 24 hours. Right now, conditions are not entirely perfect and the system is looking a little ragged...however, we are in DMIN, and DMAX might just spark off a convective burst that really gets things rolling. Due to the over 50% complete eyewall feature earlier (NHC even said 75%), and the fact Lisa is vertically aligning, I opted for a 3, instead of a 2 on the scale.

If RI were to take place, I would be looking at a general increase in convective activity overnight, and some modest strengthening tonight/tomorrow, then there might be a slight lull in activity for 6 hours or so, followed by a rapid deepening of the system tomorrow evening or tomorrow night. Now, during this slight lull, the pressure may still drop a millibar or two, but the winds will generally not be increased.