ATL: LISA - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Funny how things work.

Yep Hurakan...depends on who is on duty also.

We need to combine Lixion and Steward!!! That would be the perfect forecaster!! lol

[Vortmax1]

That would be the perfect forecaster!! lol

Wow!
What an awesome idea!
ROFL

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[superfly]

Not upgraded because the LLC is still poorly defined and looks to have multiple vortices on visible sat.

That didn't hold them back from upgrading Igor. Funny how things work.

Igor and Julia were both upgraded early because of proximity to the CV islands. If this was a few hundred miles east, it would probably be upgraded by now as well.

[CrazyC83]

The last time there were no storms active was on the afternoon of August 21 (before TD6/Danielle was declared). If this fails to develop before Igor becomes extratropical, it will be the first quiet time in a month.

ETA: Oops I am wrong, there was a short gap (no full days though) between Earl becoming extratropical and Hermine forming. August 20 was the last full quiet day.

[HURAKAN]

This one could go straight to tropical storm

[Aric Dunn]

[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/ATL/45.PGI45L/ssmi/composite/20100920.1901.f15.x.composite.45PGI45L.15kts-1010mb-163N-328W.87pc.jpg[/img

Looking good

I no longer see evidence of multiple vorts. the last few visible images show a pretty clear LLC pulling up under the convection and that along with the recent microwave images provides plenty of evidence for upgrade.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[Migle]

Anything out of BT yet on whether or not we get an update at 8?

[lester]

Anything out of BT yet on whether or not we get an update at 8?

AL, 94, 2010092018, , BEST, 0, 163N, 320W, 25, 1007, DB

Still a disturbance as of 18z

[Weatherfreak000]

Nice blowup of convection over the center going now. I believe that could be the trigger to start classification potentially at 10 if this trend continues.

[cycloneye]

Up to 90%

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[MGC]

Yea, looks real close to being upgraded....MGC

[expat2carib]

Yeah...Should be 99.9% Now the question is: Straight to TS or first TD.

[cycloneye]

Finnally!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al942010_al142010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009210005
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[Weatherfreak000]

Not surprising, the recent blowup of convection was mighty convincing...

[lester]

Looks to be a TD at 11 according to Best Track.

[cycloneye]

Looks to be a TD at 11 according to Best Track.

AL, 14, 2010092100, , BEST, 0, 167N, 320W, 30, 1006, TD

[Weatherfreak000]

19/8/6 looking legendary!

[Florida1118]

I dont know...7 more storms by the end of Oct.? 6 formed in 2005, so we might match that. Im thinking around 16 NS.

[Weatherfreak000]

I dont know...7 more storms by the end of Oct.? 6 formed in 2005, so we might match that. Im thinking around 16 NS.

If your following the models, actually we will be 14/?/? by this week. GFS has also been showing spurious low pressure everywhere and the MJO is now positive. I''m just saying it's not 7 because we likely have 2 coming, so that makes it 5. Isn't that the same number you called with 2005? Yeah we can do it. I believe it.