ATL: LISA - Models

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ATL: LISA - Models

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 18, 2010 7:54 am

Code: Select all

331
WHXX01 KWBC 181252
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1252 UTC SAT SEP 18 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100918 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100918  1200   100919  0000   100919  1200   100920  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  26.7W   13.7N  28.2W   14.8N  29.6W   15.8N  30.8W
BAMD    12.8N  26.7W   13.5N  28.3W   14.3N  29.5W   15.4N  30.1W
BAMM    12.8N  26.7W   13.6N  28.0W   14.4N  29.4W   15.5N  30.5W
LBAR    12.8N  26.7W   13.3N  27.8W   14.3N  28.9W   15.5N  29.6W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          35KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          35KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100920  1200   100921  1200   100922  1200   100923  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.1N  32.0W   18.9N  33.7W   19.8N  36.5W   20.5N  40.4W
BAMD    16.5N  30.2W   18.4N  29.5W   19.4N  26.7W   21.3N  23.7W
BAMM    16.6N  31.1W   18.5N  31.4W   19.7N  30.7W   20.2N  30.8W
LBAR    16.8N  30.1W   19.6N  31.0W   22.9N  30.8W   26.2N  29.2W
SHIP        46KTS          53KTS          47KTS          39KTS
DSHP        46KTS          53KTS          47KTS          39KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.8N LONCUR =  26.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  12.3N LONM12 =  25.7W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  12.1N LONM24 =  24.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  135NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L : MODELS

#2 Postby OURAGAN » Sat Sep 18, 2010 8:07 am

Another fish.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L : MODELS

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 18, 2010 8:07 am

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#4 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Sep 18, 2010 8:12 am

I've never in my life seen a worse model consensus. That's pretty much as bad as it gets, lol.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L : Models

#5 Postby hurricaneCW » Sat Sep 18, 2010 8:29 am

This one could be the last Cape Verde system to develop far to the east but the models don't intensify it too much. The bigger focus will be the Caribbean next week, that's where all the instability will lie. As we approach the end of September, development will occur much further west so the landfall threat will gradually increase with time.
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Re:

#6 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Sep 18, 2010 8:33 am

Cyclone1 wrote:I've never in my life seen a worse model consensus. That's pretty much as bad as it gets, lol.


Not really. The BAM models are showing three different tracks depending on how deep the system is. As you can see, it makes a big difference.
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#7 Postby Frank2 » Sat Sep 18, 2010 11:32 am

Nothing shown here (other than a Fall pattern developing by Day 10):

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L : Models

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 18, 2010 7:50 pm

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 190043
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC SUN SEP 19 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100919 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100919  0000   100919  1200   100920  0000   100920  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.8N  29.3W   14.7N  30.8W   15.7N  31.9W   16.6N  32.9W
BAMD    13.8N  29.3W   14.5N  30.5W   15.6N  31.2W   16.8N  31.4W
BAMM    13.8N  29.3W   14.5N  30.7W   15.6N  31.7W   16.5N  32.2W
LBAR    13.8N  29.3W   14.6N  31.0W   15.7N  32.4W   17.1N  33.3W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100921  0000   100922  0000   100923  0000   100924  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.3N  33.6W   17.8N  35.4W   18.0N  38.7W   18.6N  42.9W
BAMD    17.9N  31.4W   19.3N  30.9W   19.5N  30.9W   20.3N  32.1W
BAMM    17.2N  32.6W   18.5N  33.4W   18.8N  35.6W   19.8N  39.3W
LBAR    18.6N  34.1W   21.3N  35.4W   23.5N  36.2W   26.6N  35.3W
SHIP        46KTS          56KTS          61KTS          61KTS
DSHP        46KTS          56KTS          61KTS          61KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.8N LONCUR =  29.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  12.6N LONM12 =  27.2W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  12.3N LONM24 =  25.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$

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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 18, 2010 10:22 pm

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GFDL
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L : Models

#10 Postby JTD » Sat Sep 18, 2010 10:23 pm

Looking at those models above, would it be wrong to say that they are not implying a recurve? It looks that way to me at least.
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#11 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 19, 2010 5:42 am

They are directly implying a recurve but at this time of year it'd be highly unlikely not to recurve from that point...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 19, 2010 7:55 am

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 191246
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC SUN SEP 19 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100919 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100919  1200   100920  0000   100920  1200   100921  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.0N  30.8W   15.7N  32.2W   16.3N  33.4W   16.6N  34.1W
BAMD    15.0N  30.8W   15.7N  32.1W   16.4N  33.0W   16.9N  33.8W
BAMM    15.0N  30.8W   15.6N  32.2W   16.2N  33.2W   16.6N  33.8W
LBAR    15.0N  30.8W   15.8N  31.9W   16.9N  33.0W   18.2N  33.6W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          44KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100921  1200   100922  1200   100923  1200   100924  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.6N  34.7W   16.4N  35.8W   16.8N  37.4W   17.8N  38.6W
BAMD    17.2N  34.5W   17.0N  36.1W   17.2N  38.4W   18.1N  40.2W
BAMM    16.8N  34.4W   16.8N  35.5W   17.1N  37.5W   18.0N  39.1W
LBAR    19.8N  34.2W   22.8N  35.0W   25.1N  34.4W   29.1N  29.9W
SHIP        53KTS          67KTS          71KTS          68KTS
DSHP        53KTS          67KTS          71KTS          68KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.0N LONCUR =  30.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  14.7N LONM12 =  28.9W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  14.1N LONM24 =  27.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 19, 2010 9:09 am

Image

GFDL

Image

HWRF
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 19, 2010 1:49 pm

18z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 191836
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC SUN SEP 19 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100919 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100919  1800   100920  0600   100920  1800   100921  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.3N  31.0W   16.1N  32.5W   16.8N  33.4W   17.0N  34.2W
BAMD    15.3N  31.0W   16.0N  32.0W   16.7N  32.8W   17.2N  33.5W
BAMM    15.3N  31.0W   16.0N  32.3W   16.7N  33.1W   17.0N  33.9W
LBAR    15.3N  31.0W   15.9N  31.9W   17.2N  32.9W   18.3N  33.6W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          38KTS          44KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          38KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100921  1800   100922  1800   100923  1800   100924  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.1N  35.0W   17.0N  36.9W   17.6N  39.4W   18.2N  41.4W
BAMD    17.6N  34.3W   17.6N  36.4W   18.2N  39.1W   18.9N  41.2W
BAMM    17.3N  34.6W   17.4N  36.5W   18.0N  39.1W   18.7N  41.2W
LBAR    19.8N  34.5W   22.9N  36.2W   25.4N  37.4W   26.7N  35.0W
SHIP        51KTS          65KTS          71KTS          69KTS
DSHP        51KTS          65KTS          71KTS          69KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.3N LONCUR =  31.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  14.9N LONM12 =  29.7W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  14.4N LONM24 =  28.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#15 Postby OURAGAN » Sun Sep 19, 2010 3:05 pm

The models are wrong for this one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#16 Postby Florida1118 » Sun Sep 19, 2010 3:09 pm

OURAGAN wrote:The models are wrong for this one.

Whys that?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#17 Postby expat2carib » Sun Sep 19, 2010 3:10 pm

OURAGAN wrote:The models are wrong for this one.


What do you mean Ouragan? You expect it to go due west?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#18 Postby OURAGAN » Sun Sep 19, 2010 3:18 pm

Yes i thing it is moving west to 270°
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 19, 2010 7:35 pm

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 200032
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC MON SEP 20 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100920 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100920  0000   100920  1200   100921  0000   100921  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.6N  31.6W   16.5N  32.9W   17.0N  33.6W   17.1N  34.4W
BAMD    15.6N  31.6W   16.3N  32.4W   16.9N  33.1W   17.2N  33.7W
BAMM    15.6N  31.6W   16.3N  32.7W   16.8N  33.3W   16.9N  33.9W
LBAR    15.6N  31.6W   16.5N  32.3W   17.6N  33.1W   18.6N  33.8W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100922  0000   100923  0000   100924  0000   100925  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.1N  35.0W   16.8N  36.9W   17.2N  39.3W   17.5N  41.2W
BAMD    17.2N  34.2W   17.0N  36.2W   17.4N  38.8W   17.7N  40.4W
BAMM    17.0N  34.4W   16.7N  36.1W   17.0N  38.6W   17.2N  40.5W
LBAR    20.0N  34.6W   22.5N  36.4W   25.1N  38.3W   27.8N  36.6W
SHIP        50KTS          63KTS          65KTS          61KTS
DSHP        50KTS          63KTS          65KTS          61KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.6N LONCUR =  31.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  15.1N LONM12 =  30.4W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  14.7N LONM24 =  28.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

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#20 Postby Tstormwatcher » Sun Sep 19, 2010 8:38 pm

Wow, models are all over the place. Anywhere from due north to due west. :double:
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