EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Depression

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202338
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 20 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS TO GALE FORCE. THIS
SYSTEM LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Macrocane]

Intresting outlook if the organization increases it will go straight to Georgette.

[Migle]

Completely forgot to check this one at 8. Looks like Baja might be seeing a Tropical Storm pretty soon here.

[Kingarabian]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 20 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY GALE-FORCE WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
STORM. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN

It looks pretty crap on visible and avn, only recently convection has begun to refire over the center... Let's see if it can keep up.

[cycloneye]

TS Georgette shortly

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
420 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM AND...AS A RESULT...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ON TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BERG

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 211145
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122010
1200 UTC TUE SEP 21 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN
LUCAS ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM BUENAVISTA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN
LUCAS ON THE EAST COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 109.5W AT 21/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 109.5W AT 21/1200Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.1N 110.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 25.4N 111.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.1N 112.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 109.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122010
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010

...TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORMS JUST SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 109.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN
LUCAS ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM BUENAVISTA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN
LUCAS ON THE EAST COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST.
GEORGETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY AND
THEN MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE MOVES
INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND
THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND WESTERN SONORA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

WTPZ42 KNHC 211204
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122010
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND IT IS WELL ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. SINCE AN ASCAT PASS FROM
YESTERDAY...AND SHIP DFZA2 FROM 0300 UTC...INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM WAS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...THE
SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WITH 35-KT WINDS.
GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER
TODAY AND SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODEL
FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GEORGETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO UNTIL
IT DISSIPATES IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST IS JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS NEAR THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 23.1N 110.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 25.4N 111.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/1800Z 28.1N 112.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[brunota2003]

This formed from the remnants of Karl, right?

[Chacor]

I don't believe so.

[bob rulz]

It's certainly possible that some of the remnants of Karl found their way into the circulation of Georgette but I don't think there's any definitive proof for it. We'll probably have to wait for the TCR to know for sure.

[HURAKAN]

When Karl was still active, the NHC was talking about the disturbance that ultimately became Georgette.

[Macrocane]

So the EPAC managed to produce the 7th named storm of the season. What a nasty surprise for Baja California.

[KWT]

A quick fire system did end up developing from this region, good to see the EPAC finally develops a storm after a very slack period in that basin due partly to the explosion in the Atlantic.

[Aquawind]

Fortunately it's not forecast over 35kts..maybe some added rain for the SW USA?

[cycloneye]

WTPZ32 KNHC 211448
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122010
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010

...GEORGETTE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS CABO SAN LUCAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 109.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST.
GEORGETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE MOVES
INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TONIGHT. GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND
THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND WESTERN SONORA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART

[Kingarabian]

I knew it! Good luck to everyone in Baja!

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 211743
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122010
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010

...GEORGETTE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 109.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENAVISTA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST.
GEORGETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOON...AND THEN
MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE MOVES
INLAND. GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY
AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND
THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND WESTERN SONORA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 212036
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122010
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SUGGEST THAT IT HAS MADE LANDFALL
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS
ARE 2.5 FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 35 KT. GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SINCE
GEORGETTE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LEFT
OF THE CIRCULATION WHEN IT REACHES THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER
TONIGHT. PRIMARILY FOR THIS REASON...RESTRENGTHENING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/8. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING. GEORGETTE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY...AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MOISTURE
FROM GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 23.3N 109.9W 35 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 22/0600Z 25.1N 110.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 22/1800Z 27.7N 111.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 30.3N 112.3W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to TD

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 212346
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122010
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010

...GEORGETTE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 110.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0
WEST. GEORGETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MAKE LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AFTER LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND
THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND WESTERN SONORA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MOISTURE FROM
GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 220230
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122010
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 110.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO NORTHWARD TO BAHIA
KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13
MPH...20 KM/HR. A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER LANDFALL IN
MAINLAND MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND
THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND WESTERN SONORA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MOISTURE FROM
GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[CrazyC83]

Looks pretty good right now - might be a TS again.