EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Depression

#2 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 6:36 am

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 201000
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6N 107.4W TO 22.2N 109.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 200930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.0N 107.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211000Z.
//

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 6:37 am

Latest

#4 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 6:38 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN SEP 19 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 6:46 am

862
ABPZ20 KNHC 201142
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 20 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD COOLER WATERS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

KWT · #6 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:52 am

Its not looking too bad right now to be honest, decent convection is present with this system. If it does develop there isn't going to be much from this system...

#7 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:53 am

EP, 96, 2010092006, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1079W, 30, 1002, DB

could be upgraded soon

#8 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:14 am

EP, 96, 2010092012, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1083W, 30, 1002, DB

12z .. no change

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:19 am

Code: Select all

430 
WHXX01 KMIA 201309
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1309 UTC MON SEP 20 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962010) 20100920 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100920  1200   100921  0000   100921  1200   100922  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.6N 108.3W   20.5N 109.1W   21.0N 109.9W   21.5N 110.7W
BAMD    19.6N 108.3W   20.8N 110.1W   21.6N 111.8W   22.4N 113.3W
BAMM    19.6N 108.3W   21.0N 109.5W   22.0N 110.8W   23.0N 111.9W
LBAR    19.6N 108.3W   20.7N 109.5W   22.0N 110.7W   23.3N 112.0W
SHIP        30KTS          33KTS          32KTS          29KTS
DSHP        30KTS          33KTS          32KTS          29KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100922  1200   100923  1200   100924  1200   100925  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.1N 111.4W   23.9N 113.1W   26.0N 115.6W   27.7N 118.5W
BAMD    23.2N 114.5W   25.2N 115.5W   27.3N 117.1W   28.9N 118.9W
BAMM    24.1N 112.7W   27.0N 112.5W   29.3N 112.5W   29.8N 113.3W
LBAR    24.8N 113.0W   29.2N 112.3W   34.7N 107.4W   39.5N 101.9W
SHIP        24KTS           0KTS           0KTS           0KTS
DSHP        24KTS           0KTS           0KTS           0KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.6N LONCUR = 108.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  18.3N LONM12 = 107.2W DIRM12 = 325DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  17.4N LONM24 = 106.5W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

KWT · #10 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:27 am

Models aren't really all that keen, which isn't all that surprising given where it is...may get a quick fire TD/TS out of this but anything that does get going is short lived.

#11 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:05 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 20 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD COOLER
WATERS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN

#12 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:53 pm

EP, 96, 2010092018, , BEST, 0, 201N, 1086W, 30, 1001, LO

no change

#13 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:10 pm

Code: Select all

662 
WHXX01 KMIA 201902
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1902 UTC MON SEP 20 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962010) 20100920 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100920  1800   100921  0600   100921  1800   100922  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.1N 108.6W   20.9N 109.1W   21.6N 109.8W   22.3N 110.3W
BAMD    20.1N 108.6W   21.2N 110.0W   22.1N 111.4W   23.1N 112.6W
BAMM    20.1N 108.6W   21.3N 109.4W   22.5N 110.3W   23.6N 111.1W
LBAR    20.1N 108.6W   21.2N 109.3W   22.5N 110.4W   23.9N 111.5W
SHIP        35KTS          36KTS          34KTS          31KTS
DSHP        35KTS          36KTS          34KTS          31KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100922  1800   100923  1800   100924  1800   100925  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.2N 110.9W   25.6N 111.8W   27.7N 113.8W   29.1N 116.7W
BAMD    24.3N 113.2W   26.6N 113.0W   28.4N 114.0W   29.1N 115.7W
BAMM    25.2N 111.4W   28.3N 110.1W   30.1N 110.8W   31.2N 112.6W
LBAR    25.6N 112.3W   30.7N 111.0W   36.4N 106.7W   39.3N 104.3W
SHIP        28KTS          33KTS          39KTS          43KTS
DSHP        27KTS          28KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  20.1N LONCUR = 108.6W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  19.3N LONM12 = 107.9W DIRM12 = 324DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  17.8N LONM24 = 106.8W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =   45NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

#14 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:11 pm

EP, 96, 2010092018, , BEST, 0, 201N, 1086W, 35, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 45, 0, 0, 1007, 120, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

up to 35 knots but still says invest

#15 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:19 pm

exposed

pepeavilenho · #16 Postby **pepeavilenho** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:23 pm

No development by GFS & Euro.....

It would be a surprise to see this becoming Georgette.... :eek:

pepeavilenho · #17 Postby **pepeavilenho** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:06 pm

Guys! Do we have any news from the Best Trak, Dvorak, or ATCF?

I'm really interested in this system, also is close to Baja California :eek:

#18 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:09 pm

pepeavilenho wrote:Guys! Do we have any news from the Best Trak, Dvorak, or ATCF?

I'm really interested in this system, also is close to Baja California

Remains just a disturbance and continues exposed, so development in the short term is unlikely.

#19 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:10 pm

Not very impressive

bob rulz · #20 Postby **bob rulz** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 5:25 pm

Strong circulation, lacking convection.

This East Pacific season is really bordering on pathetic. It's getting into late September and we haven't had a storm in a month!

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