ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Former PGI46L

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009211305
NONE
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010092112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952010
AL, 95, 2010092012, , BEST, 0, 118N, 580W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010092018, , BEST, 0, 119N, 592W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010092100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 604W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010092106, , BEST, 0, 121N, 616W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010092112, , BEST, 0, 122N, 628W, 20, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that discussed about PGI46L.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109410&p=2066489#p2066489

[tolakram]

Graveyard. Let's see if it has any surprises in store for us.

[Ivanhater]

Interesting stat from jconsor (pro-met on eastern and S2K)

"only 2 of 32 tropical cyclones that formed or moved into the W. Caribbean (west of 77W) between Sep 20 and 30 had any east of north component to their motion while still in the Caribbean (this includes the motion after Sep 30 of cyclones that remained in the Caribbean). "

[bob rulz]

Finally something tangible that we can actually associate with the future storm everyone's been talking about.

[abajan]

Graveyard. Let's see if it has any surprises in store for us.

I think this graveyard business is more about cyclones not forming in that area rather than systems that have already formed being killed. (Not to suggest that this is already a cyclone.)

[ronjon]

Wow, SHIPs up to 120 kts in 5 days. Here's my couple of analog storms for what it's worth.

[Vortmax1]

[tolakram]

Graveyard. Let's see if it has any surprises in store for us.

I think this graveyard business is more about cyclones not forming in that area rather than systems that have already formed being killed.

Yes, that's correct. Cyclones that have already formed tend to intensify in this area. I think it's more statistical than anything else ... very few cyclones form in this area.

[HurricaneBelle]

Eastern Caribbean's supposed to be a graveyard, but this is consolidating quickly.

[abajan]

That image speaks volumes.

[Vortmax1]

That image speaks volumes.

Yes...it looks darn good this morning!

[cycloneye]

What a change,from a small pouch PGI46L that was tracked for many days to now.

[Aquawind]

Curious to see if the daytime heating pops some big storms along the coast and disrupts the current trend this afternoon.. Hopefully soo..

[supercane]

Well, imagery this morning speaks more of favorable upper-level environment but shows that 95L still has some consolidation to do. UW-CIMSS TCTrak showing low shear with anticyclonic flow aloft but somewhat scattered vorticity for those who like that method.

The question is always what's underneath? As above image shows, few obs available. From microwave, nothing greatly organized yet.

[Portastorm]

Interesting stat from jconsor (pro-met on eastern and S2K)

"only 2 of 32 tropical cyclones that formed or moved into the W. Caribbean (west of 77W) between Sep 20 and 30 had any east of north component to their motion while still in the Caribbean (this includes the motion after Sep 30 of cyclones that remained in the Caribbean). "

I was thinking based on the latest model runs that we in Texas were probably in the clear with this one ... until I read this!

[MWatkins]

What a change,from a small pouch PGI46L that was tracked for many days to now.

Indeed, Luis. Looks like the most favorable MJO pulse of the season is moving in...but wow what a change even from yesterday at this time...

This could be the beginning of yet another active phase.

MW

[KWT]

I suspect only a touch north of due west next few days, into Central America but back out into the NW Caribbean in the end...thats when things get VERY worrying IMO...

I agree with everyone, this one maybe the memorable cat-5 this season IMO if it manages to miss Central America and slow down over the super high heat content...

[ROCK]

Interesting stat from jconsor (pro-met on eastern and S2K)

"only 2 of 32 tropical cyclones that formed or moved into the W. Caribbean (west of 77W) between Sep 20 and 30 had any east of north component to their motion while still in the Caribbean (this includes the motion after Sep 30 of cyclones that remained in the Caribbean). "

I was thinking based on the latest model runs that we in Texas were probably in the clear with this one ... until I read this!

oh it will go into CA I have no doubt about that but its whatever is left over getting back over water is going to be interesting.... where it tracks from there.....models still figuring out setup 7 days out....

[KWT]

Hmmm its not clear cut it gets into CA, esp if it was develop a little faster and stronger then expected...could quite easily see it only just get inland and then be out as the upper trough comes in and stall as it gets left behind in weak steering currents, a classic set-up for a monster hurricane to develop.

[tolakram]

One thing interesting to note. When the disturbance that was to become Karl was down here SA has numerous storms inland with outflow boundaries regularly flowing into the disturbance. Today the conditions in SA are different with the flow coming from the NE instead of off land. Might make a difference.