ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[StormClouds63]

"hurricide" ... very clever. I think a new expression has been launched for S2K.

As far as Matthew, yesterday it looked like a good bet for a major. Now, probably doesn't survive. Confusing, because maybe the future Nicole goes to Florida? U.S. remains very fortunate ... not so lucky for CA.

[blp]

I just got on and this might have been stated but I actually think there is more concensus today with the models. They (GFDL, HWRF, CMC, EURO) seem to be leaning towards the GFS solution of the trough inducing enough weakness in the ridge to bring whatever energy is left back over the water and heading NE to a position just south of Cuba. The GFS seems the most agressive with intensity but it cannot be discounted considering the SST's in the region. I wonder if the NHC will consider this another system or continue with Matthew.

[psyclone]

i think the writing has been on the wall since last night as matthew booked it to the west. this is just a less savory option for storm geeks. as i said last night central america is a casino for tropical cyclones... easy to get into and tough to get out of. i still think the caribbean will produce more action over the next month though.

[Air Force Met]

I just got on and this might have been stated but I actually think there is more concensus today with the models. They (GFDL, HWRF, CMC, EURO) seem to be leaning towards the GFS solution of the trough inducing enough weakness in the ridge to bring whatever energy is left back over the water and heading NE to a position just south of Cuba. The GFS seems the most agressive with intensity but it cannot be discounted considering the SST's in the region. I wonder if the NHC will consider this another system or continue with Matthew.

I think you are mis-reading what the models are saying. The energy the models are seeing and eventually heading into Florida is not really related to Matthew...its something different. The GFS is certainly looking at an entirely separate piece of energy. The mid levels clearly heads due west with something new forming on a monsoon trof to the east...which is beginning to show up in the satellite imagery over the central Caribbean now.

To answer your question...they would have to consider it a new system as the low level center would be totally different than Matthew. I fully expect Matthew to be dissipated ...and NHC advisories to be discontinued long before the 5 day point in the latest NHC forecast. I would expect advisories to be discontinued by late tomorrow or Sunday morning.

[wxman57]

I just got on and this might have been stated but I actually think there is more concensus today with the models. They (GFDL, HWRF, CMC, EURO) seem to be leaning towards the GFS solution of the trough inducing enough weakness in the ridge to bring whatever energy is left back over the water and heading NE to a position just south of Cuba. The GFS seems the most agressive with intensity but it cannot be discounted considering the SST's in the region. I wonder if the NHC will consider this another system or continue with Matthew.

I think you are mis-reading what the models are saying. The energy the models are seeing and eventually heading into Florida is not really related to Matthew...its something different. The GFS is certainly looking at an entirely separate piece of energy. The mid levels clearly heads due west with something new forming on a monsoon trof to the east...which is beginning to show up in the satellite imagery over the central Caribbean now.

To answer your question...they would have to consider it a new system as the low level center would be totally different than Matthew. I fully expect Matthew to be dissipated ...and NHC advisories to be discontinued long before the 5 day point in the latest NHC forecast. I would expect advisories to be discontinued by late tomorrow or Sunday morning.

I've come to that conclusion, too, AFM. Separate system the models are spinning up east of Matthew. Matthew dissipates inland and something else develops. Strange....

[Air Force Met]

I've come to that conclusion, too, AFM. Separate system the models are spinning up east of Matthew. Matthew dissipates inland and something else develops. Strange....

I think someone drugged me and I woke up at JTWC....

[Ivanhater]

I knew yesterday that whatever hit Florida would not be Matthew.The vorticity continued to march westward, while a monsoonal low pressure was developing back east. I wonder if this is a sign if things to come? NW Caribbean continuing to crank out storms into the Gulf. The pattern at the time of each storm would be crucial. What a crazy pattern for the 2nd half of the 2010 season.

[sphelps8681]

Lastest model plots looks like NHC has shifted a little more west from previous plot.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[srainhoutx]

This is looking like a WPAC monsoonal 'like' development. I could see a baroclinic low as the Euro is trying to depict. But that is for another discussion. Very interesting pattern for the NALT.

[Steve H.]

Concur AFM and wx57, energy that is lagging in the Central Caribbean is what is going to be the area to watch. Convection already building there.

[chaser1]

"hurricide" ... very clever. I think a new expression has been launched for S2K.
....Confusing, because maybe the future Nicole goes to Florida? U.S. remains very fortunate ... not so lucky for CA.

Maybe not "hurricide" nor Nicole coming to Florida......, maybe Matthew's just playing "hide-acane and go seek" before visiting the sunshine state! Of course much less realistic ( especially in light of increased forward speed ), then that suggested by several here that West Carib. cyclongenesis likely to simply spin up a new system. Real debate might come in to play if Matt were drifting into the coast and lose identity quickly rather than to fly off to the west and at least be a discernible low for a few days.

[Aquawind]

Wow... Weather is soo amazing and unpredictable at times..

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well I see alot of models hooking him back out over the gulf of honduras...why is it impossible to believe its not him coming back under Jamacia as a potent storm in the long run?

[Aric Dunn]

well the 12z GFS develops not 1 but 2 separate systems from the same monsoon trough in carribean throughout the run after taking nicole into florida then dives it back across cuba all the while develops a hurricane in the carrib then across DR where Nicole and the hurricane fujiwhara around each other.. hmmmm... sounds like a great idea lol

basically the GFS has nicole doing something similar to Gordan just farther south and west than what gordan did

[Evil Jeremy]

You know the future track is uncertain when the models thread is 10 pages longer than the main thread lol.

[dizzyfish]

[quote="Aric Dunn"]well the 12z GFS develops not 1 but 2 separate systems from the same monsoon trough in carribean throughout the run after taking nicole into florida then dives it back across cuba all the while develops a hurricane in the carrib then across DR where Nicole and the hurricane fujiwhara around each other.. hmmmm... sounds like a great idea lol

basically the GFS has nicole doing something similar to Gordan just farther south and west than what gordan did
quote]

I just looked at the 12z GFS - that is a whacked track right there! What is that at the end? Still Nicole??? Geez if that verifies I don't wanna see where it goes!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Wx_Warrior]

I agree Ivan. The pattern has changed heading into October with the door open for the SE-US. Hopefully nothing too strong develops.

[Rob H]

GFS must have it in for Tampa. Now that it looks like Mathew is not going to do the job it cooks up another system to come up and destroy us.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps= There is a thread at Talking tropics forum about the next system. Visit that thread and you can see all the model runs for the other system(s).

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109519&hilit=&p=2074630#p2074630

[mobilebay]

GFS must have it in for Tampa. Now that it looks like Mathew is not going to do the job it cooks up another system to come up and destroy us.

now thats funny!