ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[wxman57]

12Z models shifted 30-40 miles south on the initial track, taking Matthew well inland across Nicaragua/Honduras and only briefly over water before reaching Belize. Then inland to west of Belize followed by a turn NE as the front picks it up.

I was always confused by this, so please clear this up for me: What 12z models are you referring to? Do you refer to the 06z GFS, GFDL, HWRF models, as well as others that run during that time, as the 12zs?

It's not the 12Z global models, they don't come in for another 3-4 hrs. But there are 12Z "early" models that include the GFDL, HWRF (and variations) as well as, of course, the BAMs. Trend is definitely farther south, but there are more now indicating a NE hook back out over the NW Caribbean in 4-5 days.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Welcome back Mobile Bay I am confused too!

Bocadude if the track verifies then maybe the chances of dissapation increase. But until we get more clarity about the future movement of Matthew keep on watching for the latest info.

[hurricaneCW]

I don't think we'll see total dissipation, there's too much instability and low pressures around the area to allow his remnants to just fade away. The actual storm may be gone, but not the remnants that could easily regenerate once they move back over the hot Caribbean waters. Also, more instability developing in the western Caribbean will aid in further development probably around 3-5 days from now.

The 06z gfs is quite alarming and it's more or less a trend of what it was showing in past runs with the whole south Florida impact and then moving north up the east coast as a powerful sub or extra tropical system.

[Evil Jeremy]

But there are 12Z "early" models that include the GFDL, HWRF (and variations)

Is there public access to these early models, or do you have to pay for them?

[srainhoutx]

But there are 12Z "early" models that include the GFDL, HWRF (and variations)

Is there public access to these early models, or do you have to pay for them?

[boca]

Is 97E in the east pacific the tricker that will form the new system in the NW Caribbean Sea and move NNE like the 06zGFS is indicating.

[wxman57]

The 12Z "early" models are readily available on numerous sites. One good site is Colorado State's.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Look at the "Frame 3" links for Matthew:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early3.png

Of course, I can plot my own, as I did below. I only removed the experimental NOGAPS model and the goofy BAMs which take it to the East Pac then back across CA to the Caribbean:

[mobilebay]

Welcome back Mobile Bay I am confused too!

Bocadude if the track verifies then maybe the chances of dissapation increase. But until we get more clarity about the future movement of Matthew keep on watching for the latest info.

thanks. i hope to post more in the coming days

[sphelps8681]

I have got one GFS ensemble member getting real close to Texas....I wonder if that is a trend?

I was thinking the same thing. You never know, but today is the anniversary for Rita.

[Bocadude85]

The 12Z "early" models are readily available on numerous sites. One good site is Colorado State's.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Look at the "Frame 3" links for Matthew:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early3.png

Of course, I can plot my own, as I did below. I only removed the experimental NOGAPS model and the goofy BAMs which take it to the East Pac then back across CA to the Caribbean:

Looking at some of those models it appears Matthew could make a sharp righthand turn.. any chance this goes south of Florida?

[wxman57]

Looking at some of those models it appears Matthew could make a sharp righthand turn.. any chance this goes south of Florida?

Yes, it could reach south Florida around the end of next week.

[wzrgirl1]

Looking at some of those models it appears Matthew could make a sharp righthand turn.. any chance this goes south of Florida?

Yes, it could reach south Florida around the end of next week.

I think he meant South of Florida....not South Florida.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I was thinking the same thing. But I also think that Wxman57 meant that it could come to South Fla as opposed to going south of Fla.

[AdamFirst]

Looks like worst case scenario for Belize and the Yucatan area. Good luck to those folks down there.

[Air Force Met]

Looking at some of those models it appears Matthew could make a sharp righthand turn.. any chance this goes south of Florida?

Yes, it could reach south Florida around the end of next week.

I really think we have one of two possible scenarios now:
1) Matthew commits hurricide over Central America...and Nicole forms over the NW Carib next week...and that is what impacts Florida...or...
2) Matthew commits hurricide over Central America...and nothing forms...

I really believe the entity the HWRF is seeing that moves NE is NOT Matthew...but its own version of what the GFS is doing....which is taking Matthew into Central America and killing it...and then reforming something else east of Belize next week. Its clear the GFS takes the mid level vorticity west and what hits Florida is something totally seperate...something with the EURO.

The HWRF is doing the same thing just too far north. The HWRF 06z run is already 90 miles too far north. It has Matt at 15.5...and the GFDL has it at 14.9. So both of the models are way too far north.

Matt is destined to die over Central America. I tossed around this idea last night and was almost 50/50...now I am feeling pretty confident. There is still good ridging north of Matt over the NW Carib and that is why he is hauling it off to the west. He will be inland by early afternoon.

[HurricaneBelle]

Matt is destined to die over Central America. I tossed around this idea last night and was almost 50/50...now I am feeling pretty confident. There is still good ridging north of Matt over the NW Carib and that is why he is hauling it off to the west. He will be inland by early afternoon.

The NHC seems to agree with you. From the 11AM discussion:

BEYOND TWO DAYS...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER CONTINUES WESTWARD AND DISSIPATES...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND BECOMES PART OF A NEARLY STATIONARY BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

[Air Force Met]

Matt is destined to die over Central America. I tossed around this idea last night and was almost 50/50...now I am feeling pretty confident. There is still good ridging north of Matt over the NW Carib and that is why he is hauling it off to the west. He will be inland by early afternoon.

The NHC seems to agree with you. From the 11AM discussion:

BEYOND TWO DAYS...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER CONTINUES WESTWARD AND DISSIPATES...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND BECOMES PART OF A NEARLY STATIONARY BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

Yeah...read that after I posted it. We have been discussing this scenario amongst ourselves for a couple of days now and have been growing increasingly confident in it.

[plasticup]

I really believe the entity the HWRF is seeing that moves NE is NOT Matthew...but its own version of what the GFS is doing....which is taking Matthew into Central America and killing it...and then reforming something else east of Belize next week.

I completely agree. And it makes sense, too, because there is little likelihood of Matthew surviving those mountains, but there is plenty of disturbance in the area to generate something new.

[srainhoutx]

THe PREDICT Team would agree AFM...

1. GFS & ECMWF continue to show development of a large
circulation to the east of Matthew around day 4. Yesterday, it
looked like it would come out of a east-west oriented vorticity
strip associated with a line of convection emanating out of the
northeast sector of Matthew itself. As of yesteday's 12Z run,
the story has changed. Now it seems that the models are locking
onto a monsoonal-type of development in which high OW values are
pulled eastward by the flow on the south side of Matthew from
the Eastpac into the Caribbean, which then develop. UKMET and
NOGAPS also show this OW max, but they haven't depicted a
circulation or pouch at the day 4-5 period yet. (See the fields
for Matthew to see this potential system.)

[fci]

THe PREDICT Team would agree AFM...

1. GFS & ECMWF continue to show development of a large
circulation to the east of Matthew around day 4. Yesterday, it
looked like it would come out of a east-west oriented vorticity
strip associated with a line of convection emanating out of the
northeast sector of Matthew itself. As of yesteday's 12Z run,
the story has changed. Now it seems that the models are locking
onto a monsoonal-type of development in which high OW values are
pulled eastward by the flow on the south side of Matthew from
the Eastpac into the Caribbean, which then develop. UKMET and
NOGAPS also show this OW max, but they haven't depicted a
circulation or pouch at the day 4-5 period yet. (See the fields
for Matthew to see this potential system.)

Any historical examples where this scenario has occured?