ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[wxman57]

A re-post of a discussion that started in the other thread in response to a post about the models not agreeing on what Matthew will do:

It's not so crazy when you remove the "garbage" from the latest model plot. Most of the strange tracks that have it looping out near the East Pac then back to the Caribbean or Gulf, or NW toward the NW Gulf or BoC are from rather bad models (LBAR, CLIPPER, BAMs). I removed the various climo runs, LBAR and the BAMS/BAMM/BAMD and we see quite a good consensus developing.

The GFS seems to be at the heart of the disagreement. Note that there are now 3 divergent tracks that take Matthew more rapidly off to the NE - the GFS ensembles, HWRF and the consensus models (TVCN/TVCC). The HWRF at least in part incorporates GFS data, so it's not surprising it sort of follows the lead of the GFS. The consensus models incorporate the GFS and HWRF, so the consensus track is well to the NE, too. The consensus is good to follow most of the time, but not when 1 or 2 of its members are extreme outliers. All the other models, however, keep Matthew inland for 5 days. That yellow line emerging offshore near northern Belize is the GFS operational run.

[MortisFL]

Wxman57, are you still on board with a new low forming east of Matthew in the western carib?

[xironman]

The 6z GFS makes a run at the CMC for crazy uncle title with Matt and Nicole performing a Fujiwhara in GOM/Carib.

[wxman57]

It's hard to rival the Canadian for craziness, but the 6Z GFS comes close...

[ROCK]

boy the GFS gets it real close to Texas....hmmmm...dare I say west of 95?

[ROCK]

It's hard to rival the Canadian for craziness, but the 6Z GFS comes close...

seems the GFS has been spitting out craziness for a few runs now....be cool to see a Fuji effect in the GOM....not that it want something to hit anyone...

[plasticup]

GFDL is sort of amusing. It pushes Matthew into Belize, then reverses direction into the Caribbean Sea for some restrengthening, then makes a second landfall in the same place 2-3 days later.

[crimi481]

De-Coupling appears to be starting, as Low may be forming east-off Belize coast- moving towards N.W.?
Matthew energy lagging behind - to east -ovr water
loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/4536 ... toeast.jpg

[Steve]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

12Z CMC takes a developing, impact system into south Florida. It appears to still be intensifying as it landfalls. That looks like a bad scenario for the Keys, Florida City and Miami.

Contrast that with the GFS which builds the western ridge on the CONUS in a little quicker and traps a weaker system across the central and eastern FL Panhandle (again, landfalling around Wakulla or Franklin County.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Steve]

12Z GFDL goes in even a different route, rotating the circulation around the Yucatan and emerging into the BoC by the end of the run. That's 3 completely different solutions so far with the 12z runs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

HWRF pulses in Central America with a new system forming south of Cuba at the end of the run.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

UKMET is faster with the CONUS trough which is transient and simply lifts out leaving Matthew to possibly meander in the southern Gulf. As a piece of energy comes down, low pressure develops off of Pensacola out in front of the trough.

When almost no model agrees with any other model, you know it's an interesting setup.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... tLoop.html

[AdamFirst]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010092512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

12Z CMC takes a developing, impact system into south Florida. It appears to still be intensifying as it landfalls. That looks like a bad scenario for the Keys, Florida City and Miami.

Looks like an Irene scenario except it enters on the East Coast.

[superfly]

18Z GFS is pretty amusing too. It looks like it spawns Nicole in the NW Carib and pushes her off to the NE then immediately afterwards spawns Otto in the exact same spot!

[plasticup]

lol wut, initiate freakout:



Euro and NOGAPS are similar, but develop the system a of couple days behind:

Euro:


NOGAPS:


Heck, even GFDL sees something, although it thinks that it is still following Matthew while the synoptic models call this a new system:

[AdamFirst]

Theres some model agreement there



(the smililes arent showing up....hmmm)

[Nimbus]

All the models show a large ridge over the plains states which would steer any development towards Florida. Looking at the water vapor imagery some of the decoupled energy is headed west through Mexico.
Still a broad remnant low centered over the Yucatan so I can understand the reasoning behind the concern over a monsoon low in the area.

If the current LLC does not survive its stay over land persistent convection somewhere in the monsoon low should provide enough lift to develop a new LLC. Everyone seems to like the western Caribbean for that.

[hurricanefloyd5]

lol wut, initiate freakout:



Euro and NOGAPS are similar, but develop the system a of couple days behind:

Euro:


NOGAPS:


Heck, even GFDL sees something, although it thinks that it is still following Matthew while the synoptic models call this a new system:

dose anyone have the loop of this gfdl model here at the bottom

[pgoss11]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation