DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Well I see alot of models hooking him back out over the gulf of honduras...why is it impossible to believe its not him coming back under Jamacia as a potent storm in the long run?
That's not really what the models are showing. The HWRF, for instance...is not actually showing that hook. If you look at it very closely...it is showing the same thing the GFS is showing: Matthew moves WNW...dissipates...and at the same time a large/broad low forms over the NW Carib...and another low forms east. However...due to the way the model is trying to track the low level feature...it "follows" the lowest pressure and gives the appearance that it is all one system...Matthew...hooking out to the NE. It should be noted, however, that the HWRF is 60 miles too far north already and is therefor not initializing correctly.
If you take a look at all the global models...and look at the big picture they are painting for you...you see that what they are trying to show you is not a hook of Matthew...but a separate low forming on a broad low/monsoon trof. Matthew is almost inland...and will be onshore or almost on shore by the 21z advisory. As the NHC said this morning...and as the GFS has been showing...the mid level vorticity center from Matthew will decouple from the sfc center over the next day and will dissipate over Guatemala. What's left of the LLC will dissipate over N Guatemala/Yucatan. A broad trof will be left...and that is form Nicole in a few days.
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