CPAC: INVEST 97C

[tolakram]

BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_cp972010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009210852
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, CP, C, , , , , 97, 2010, DB, O, 2010092118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP972010
CP, 97, 2010092018, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1501W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 97, 2010092100, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1506W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 97, 2010092106, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1511W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 97, 2010092112, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1514W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 97, 2010092118, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1523W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[tolakram]

South of Hawaii.



EPAC Floater 2: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float7.html

[cycloneye]

18z Models.

SHIP doesn't do anything with it intensitywise.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 211854
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1854 UTC TUE SEP 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP972010) 20100921 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100921  1800   100922  0600   100922  1800   100923  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.2N 152.3W   13.1N 153.7W   13.8N 155.0W   14.6N 156.5W
BAMD    12.2N 152.3W   13.0N 153.4W   13.6N 154.3W   14.3N 155.1W
BAMM    12.2N 152.3W   13.0N 153.3W   13.5N 154.3W   14.0N 155.5W
LBAR    12.2N 152.3W   13.2N 153.2W   14.2N 154.0W   15.2N 154.7W
SHIP        20KTS          21KTS          21KTS          21KTS
DSHP        20KTS          21KTS          21KTS          21KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100923  1800   100924  1800   100925  1800   100926  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.3N 158.1W   16.4N 161.0W   16.5N 164.1W   15.9N 167.9W
BAMD    14.8N 155.9W   15.0N 157.6W   14.0N 159.5W   12.3N 161.5W
BAMM    14.5N 156.8W   14.9N 159.2W   14.1N 161.9W   12.7N 165.1W
LBAR    16.1N 155.4W   16.4N 156.7W   15.0N 158.2W   14.7N 160.8W
SHIP        20KTS          16KTS          17KTS          23KTS
DSHP        20KTS          16KTS          17KTS          23KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.2N LONCUR = 152.3W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  11.1N LONM12 = 151.1W DIRM12 = 325DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =   9.8N LONM24 = 150.1W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Macrocane]

It looks very good, I'm surprised it has only a 10% chance of development, maybe conditions ahead are very bad and it will be destroyed rapidly.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

Very small, will be very easy to RI and also RW.

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOCATED ABOUT 535 MILES
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...AND HAS BEEN
MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Kingarabian]

[supercane]

TXPN41 PHFO 220020
TCSNP1
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0020 UTC WED SEP 22 2010
A. DISTURBANCE SSE OF HAWAII (INVEST 97C)
B. 21/2330Z
C. 12.4N
D. 152.8W
E. GOES11
F. T1.0/1.0/INITIAL FIX
G. VIS/IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM WRAPS 0.2 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL...YIELDING A DATA
T OF 1.0. PATTERN T AGREES. FINAL T BASED ON DATA T.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL.
$$
KINEL



Latest ASCAT whiffed, but earlier pass did show a small circulation.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

[SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PHNC 220200
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 152.4W TO 13.7N 158.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 220130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 153.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 230200Z.
//

[supercane]

ACPN50 PHFO 220545
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE SEP 21 2010
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS AREA HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE AS IT
CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.
$$
HOUSTON

[supercane]

Latest Dvoraks T1.0 from both PHFO (CPHC) and PGTW (JTWC):
TXPN41 PHFO 220626
TCSNP1
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0625 UTC WED SEP 22 2010
A. TROP. DIST. SSE OF HAWAII...INVEST 97C
B. 22/0530Z
C. 13.3N
D. 152.9W
E. GOES11
F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/6 HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED NEAR CENTER. OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE TO NORTH. WRAP OF 0.2 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
22/0313Z 13.0N 152.8W SSMI
$$
HOUSTON


TPPZ01 PGTW 220546
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97C (SE OF HAWAII)
B. 22/0530Z
C. 12.6N
D. 152.8W
E. FIVE/GOES11
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN IS TOO WEAK TO MEASURE AN
ACCURATE DT HOWEVER, DVORAK RULES INSIST THE STORM NOT BE
LOWERED AT NIGHT DURING FIRST 24HRS. FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/2359Z 12.8N 153.3W MMHS
22/0003Z 12.7N 153.1W AMSR
22/0012Z 12.4N 153.0W MMHS
KIENZLE

[dwsqos2]

I am bored once more, so once again I offer my climocast. The ENSO state is quite negative; the PDO state is quite negative; the state of these two indices does not favor development in the CPAC. Thus, I do not think that this will develop.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I suppose if I were brave I would cancel the CPAC season entirely based upon these indices.

[Chacor]

Do you have data for these two indices for 1979, the last year no CPac TCs occurred?

Remains at 60% HIGH at 12z.

[supercane]

Latest Dvoraks: T1.5 from PHFO (CPHC) and T1.0 from PGTW (JTWC)
TXPN41 PHFO 221241
TCSNP1
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1235 UTC WED SEP 22 2010
A. TROP. DIST. SSE OF HAWAII...INVEST 97C
B. 22/1200Z
C. 13.3N
D. 155.2W
E. GOES11
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/12 HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...LLCC APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED JUST TO THE WEST OF DEEP
CONVECTION. USING SHEAR PATTERN...DT IS 1.5. PT AGREES. FT BASED ON
DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
22/0445Z 13.2N 152.7W AMSU
22/0513Z 13.3N 152.9W SSMS
$$
HOUSTON



TPPZ01 PGTW 221145
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97C (SE OF HAWAII)
B. 22/1130Z
C. 13.1N
D. 153.7W
E. FIVE/GOES11
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG-10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
KIENZLE

[supercane]

ACPN50 PHFO 221750
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST WED SEP 22 2010
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 410 MILES
SOUTH OF HILO...HAWAII...HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THIS AREA HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE AS IT CONTINUES
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
$$
BURKE

Exposed circulation seen on visible:


TXPN41 PHFO 221834
TCSNP1
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1835 UTC WED SEP 22 2010
A. TROP. DIST. SSE OF HAWAII...INVEST 97C
B. 22/1800Z
C. 13.4N
D. 155.6W
E. GOES11
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/12 HRS
G. VIS/IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...LLCC IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF DEEP CONVECTION.
USING SHEAR PATTERN...DT IS 1.5. PT AGREES. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
22/1217Z 13.2N 155.0W AMSRE
22/1549Z 13.4N 155.5W SSMI
$$
BURKE

[Chacor]

TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST THU SEP 23 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTER OR TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 515 MILES
SOUTH OF OAHU CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST AT A LITTLE UNDER 10 MILES AN
HOUR OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORTS AN ELONGATED
TROUGH BETTER THAN A LOW AS SUCH...AND A MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION FOR
THE FEATURE AS WELL. STILL...THE AREA OF GREATEST INTEREST IS
LOCATED RIGHT AT THE EDGE OF THE SATELLITE PASS...SO THIS DATA MUST
BE USED WITH CAUTION. THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EAST FLANK OF THE LOW
SPREAD RAPIDLY ALONG ITS NORTH EDGE...REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF
SEPARATION BETWEEN THE HYPOTHETICAL LOW CENTER AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS WELL. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
FEATURE IS POSSIBLE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT
10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO TROUBLE
THIS SYSTEM...IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

$$

RYSHKO

[Chacor]

TXPN41 PHFO 231157 CCA
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1145 UTC THU SEP 23 2010

A. TROP. DIST. SSE OF HAWAII...INVEST 97C

B. 23/1115Z

C. 13.6N

D. 157.9W

E. GOES11

F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24 HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...LLCC REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DEEP
CONVECTION...BUT THE CONVECTION IS CATCHING UP. USING SHEAR
PATTERN...DT IS UNREPRESENTATIVE 2.5. MET IS 1.5...AND PT AGREES.
FT BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

$$

RYSHKO

[Chacor]

And... again we're looking at a poofer.

ACPN50 PHFO 232349
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU SEP 23 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 480 MILES TO THE
SOUTH OF HONOLULU HAWAII. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL EVIDENT
IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS
THIS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PULSING
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER BUT REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS ONLY A WEAK TROUGH
IN THIS AREA AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

BURKE