ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories

[JTD]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231729
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT 2 PM EDT TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Cyclone1]

Lol I like how they still call 100% a "high chance".

[somethingfunny]

Lol I like how they still call 100% a "high chance".

If the NHC has a computer crash, there's a chance the advisories will never be posted.

[tolakram]

000
WTNT25 KNHC 231748
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1800 UTC THU SEP 23 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF
HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON...INCLUDING
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 76.2W AT 23/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 76.2W AT 23/1800Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 74.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.1N 77.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.7N 80.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.4N 83.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.9N 85.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT... 65NE 50SE 30SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.9N 87.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 85NE 75SE 45SW 85NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 18.0N 88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 19.5N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 76.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON FOUND
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND WINDS
SUFFICIENT TO CLASSIFY THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY STRENGTHEN FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND PASS OVER OR NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY ISSUED AT 2100 UTC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1800Z 13.9N 76.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 14.1N 77.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 14.7N 80.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 15.4N 83.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 15.9N 85.1W 60 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1200Z 16.9N 87.8W 70 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 27/1200Z 18.0N 88.4W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/1200Z 19.5N 87.5W 70 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[SouthFloridawx]

[abajan]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 231749
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 76.2W
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF
HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON...INCLUDING
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT25 KNHC 232035
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
2100 UTC THU SEP 23 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 76.9W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 76.9W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 76.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.4N 78.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.1N 81.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.6N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.2N 85.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 55SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.1N 88.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 85NE 75SE 45SW 85NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.3N 88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.5N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 76.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 232041
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MATTHEW COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Discussion came out late.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 232051
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
CYCLONE FOUND 42-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT ABOUT 1500 FT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON ITS OUTBOUND LEG. THAT WIND SPEED WOULD
NORMALLY EQUATE TO ABOUT 34 KT AT THE SURFACE. ALSO...THERE WERE
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 35-37 KT IN THAT AREA.
SINCE THOSE WIND REPORTS...CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO
INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED..AND THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14. TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
OR SO...AND PASS OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS IN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON
THE TIMING OF THE WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST
TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAY 3...THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MATTHEW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALL OF THE
NHC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYNOPTIC
SCALE PATTERN...EXCEPT FOR THE TIMING. THE GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS...
HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS KEEP THE LOW WEST OF 85W LONGITUDE BY 120
HOURS...WHEREAS THE UKMET IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THE
LARGE TROUGH EAST OF 80W. GIVEN THE USUAL SLOW MOVEMENT OF SUCH
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH...THE UKMET IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER MODEL
AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND
OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS...EXCLUDING THE UKMET SOLUTION...
AND IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS SINCE MATTHEW
WILL BE MOVING OVER 30C SSTS AND BENEATH A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS IN 36-48 HOURS...AND MOVE INLAND NEAR
BELIZE BY DAY 4. LAND INTERACTION WOULD DISRUPT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS DESPITE THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER...THEN MATTHEW COULD
EASILY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION
THAT MATTHEW WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 14.0N 76.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 14.4N 78.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 15.1N 81.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 15.6N 84.0W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/1800Z 16.2N 85.8W 60 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 26/1800Z 17.1N 88.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 18.3N 88.4W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/1800Z 19.5N 87.5W 70 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 232349
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
800 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...MATTHEW HEADING TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 77.7W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...
THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
MATTHEW COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM A
NOAA AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 240252
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 78.4W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAVE CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
TO LIMON HONDURAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
WEST OF LIMON WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON HONDURAS WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER

WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTS OF
GUATEMALA AND BELIZE ON FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MATTHEW COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

Again,the discussion came late.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 240258
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF MATTHEW HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER AND SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SEEN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LATEST
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35
KT...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...
MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME AND THERE IS FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST. IN 2-3 DAYS...
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENTS AND A
DECELERATION OF THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SEVERAL OF THEM SHOWING RATHER
COMPLEX SCENARIOS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL MOVE MATTHEW
WELL INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN
2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY WEAKEN
MATTHEW...THEN DEVELOP A SECOND CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS...GFDL....AND HWRF
KEEP MATTHEW AS THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AND SHOW IT TURNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS THAN NORMAL. FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN...AND IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 72
HOURS.

MATTHEW WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 24
HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LAND
INTERACTION. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...ASSUMING THE CENTER STAYS OFFSHORE OF
HONDURAS. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SINCE THE NEW TRACK FORECAST SHOWS MATTHEW OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 72-120 HOURS.

BASED ON THE NEW TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...SOME CHANGES WERE
REQUIRED TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 14.0N 78.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 14.5N 80.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 15.1N 82.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 15.9N 85.1W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0000Z 16.6N 87.1W 65 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 27/0000Z 17.9N 89.2W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/0000Z 18.5N 89.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 29/0000Z 19.0N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Aquawind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 240541
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 79.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON HONDURAS WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER

WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE COAST OF
GUATEMALA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
MATTHEW COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[abajan]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 240850
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 79.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON HONDURAS WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER

WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE COAST OF
GUATEMALA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS LATE TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MATTHEW COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
LATE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
_______________________________________________________________________

000
WTNT45 KNHC 240851
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

MATTHEW HAS GOTTEN SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. WHILE THE STORM HAS A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -80C...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO 15 KT OF EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWN IN ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS PRESENT.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM
SAB...AND BASED ON THESE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14. MATTHEW IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE
NEXT 36-48 HR. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SERIOUS
DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE. THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
THAT MATTHEW SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND/OR GUATEMALA...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING THE
CENTER REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFDL..HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST MATTHEW TO REACH THE
EAST COAST OF YUCATAN AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE DIFFERENCES
APPEAR TO STEM FROM THE INTERACTION OF MATTHEW WITH A DEVELOPING
MONSOON LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. FOR NOW...THE
TRACK FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND CALL FOR
A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO KEEP
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS IS A
LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.

THE CURRENT SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE IN 12-24 HR...SO THE MAIN
FACTOR CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK HAS MATTHEW PASSING OVER MORE LAND THAN PREVIOUSLY
AND THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE THUS BEEN LOWERED. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MATTHEW BECOMING A
HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...BUT THIS
POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE INTENSITY OF MATTHEW AFTER 48
HR IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH GROUPS OF MODELS ARE CORRECT ABOUT
THE TRACK. IF THE GLOBAL MODELS VERIFY...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA. IF THE GFDL/HWRF
VERIFY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE LATTER PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...AND LIKE THE TRACK FORECAST...IT
IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 14.3N 79.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 14.8N 82.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 15.5N 84.5W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/1800Z 16.2N 86.5W 50 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 26/0600Z 16.7N 87.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 17.5N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/0600Z 18.5N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 29/0600Z 19.5N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

114
WTNT35 KNHC 241141
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW HEADING TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 80.7W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON HONDURAS WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER

WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE COAST OF
GUATEMALA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. MATTHEW
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS LATER TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MATTHEW COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MOVES
CLOSE TO CENTRAL AMERICA LATE TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
STRONG SQUALLS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER. THE NOAA BUOY 42057 LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF MATTHEW RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS TO
43 MPH...69 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

KNHC 241752
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 83.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREAFTER...MATTHEW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 998
MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY REACHING THE COAST
OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
THESE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA FIXED THE
CENTER OF MATTHEW AT 1717 UTC ABOUT 30 NMI EAST OF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND WINDS
SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...MATTHEW MOVED
WESTWARD AND THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND IS NOW LOCATED INLAND SOUTH OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS. THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY
CURVED RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY OVER LAND...GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN.

AS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD OVER HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THERE
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND NOAA BUOY DATA.

MATTHEW HAS DECREASED SOME IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
ABOUT 13 KNOTS...WELL EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
DAYS.

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 14.7N 83.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.2N 85.6W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1800Z 15.8N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0600Z 16.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 242336
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER HONDURAS...TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 84.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST. MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15
MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS HONDURAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO BELIZE AND
GUATEMALA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY AND WEAKEN TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. PUERTO LEMPIRA IN EASTERN HONDURAS
RECENTLY REPORTED A 10-MINUTE WIND OF 46 MPH...74 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE SPREADING WESTWARD WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 250236
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND WIND ACROSS HONDURAS...TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 85.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM ESE OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE COAST OF BELIZE LATE
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT
MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE NORTH THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA IN HONDURAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVERNIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WARNING AREA IN
BELIZE ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN
BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTNT45 KNHC 250244
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS NOT WEAKENED MUCH THIS
EVENING. PUERTO LIMPERA IN EASTERN HONDURAS REPORTED A 10-MINUTE
WIND OF 38-40 KNOTS AT 2300 AND 0000 UTC...AND THE AIRCRAFT FOUND A
850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 58 KT AND A PEAK SFMR WINDS OF
51 KT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC.
BASED ON THESE DATA...AND THE FACT THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN OVER
LAND FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 4 HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45
KT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
LAND...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FROM 12 TO 24
HOURS AS THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
BEFORE MOVING INTO BELIZE. BEYOND 24 HOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
GUATEMALA OR EASTERN MEXICO IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE DATA...SATELLITE FIXES AND RADAR DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF MATTHEW IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13.
OVERALL...THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL GENERALLY STEER
MATTHEW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. BY THE
TIME MATTHEW MOVES INTO GUATEMALA AND MEXICO...THE STEERING FLOW
WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC FORECAST
IS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL LIES A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THE FORWARD SPEED WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...LIKELY PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE
AREAS. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN
AFTER MATTHEW WEAKENS.

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION OF A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 15.2N 85.0W 45 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 25/1200Z 15.6N 87.0W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 26/0000Z 16.2N 89.0W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/1200Z 16.9N 90.7W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/0000Z 17.2N 91.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 28/0000Z 17.5N 92.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN