000
WTNT35 KNHC 251139
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010
...MATTHEW PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 87.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 85 MI...145 KM ESE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST. MATTHEW
CONTINUES TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16
MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MATTHEW WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS BELIZE AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE
TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA IN HONDURAS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE WARNING AREA IN BELIZE LATER
TODAY.
RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...SOUTHERN BELIZE...AND
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories
WTNT45 KNHC 251444
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010
THE INNER CORE OF MATTHEW HAS BECOME DISRUPTED WHILE MOVING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE AREA OF STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE. THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HONDURAS AND BELIZE INDICATE
THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTH
COAST OF WESTERN HONDURAS. MATTHEW IS STILL GENERATING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...AS INDICATED BY THE STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REPORTED BY THE BELIZE RAOB
THIS MORNING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THAT MOST OF
THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS
FORECAST.
THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT MATTHEW IS SLOWING DOWN YET. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS. HOWEVER STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE
ENTIRE CIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION. MANY OF THE TRACK
MODELS KEEP MATTHEW OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA OR EASTERN MEXICO WHERE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS MATTHEW DISSIPATING OR BECOMING A REMNANT
LOW.
WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE LARGEST THREAT FROM MATTHEW IS HEAVY
RAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES DUE
TO MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 16.2N 87.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.5N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 26/1200Z 17.0N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/0000Z 17.5N 91.5W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 91.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010
THE INNER CORE OF MATTHEW HAS BECOME DISRUPTED WHILE MOVING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE AREA OF STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE. THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HONDURAS AND BELIZE INDICATE
THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTH
COAST OF WESTERN HONDURAS. MATTHEW IS STILL GENERATING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...AS INDICATED BY THE STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REPORTED BY THE BELIZE RAOB
THIS MORNING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THAT MOST OF
THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS
FORECAST.
THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT MATTHEW IS SLOWING DOWN YET. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS. HOWEVER STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE
ENTIRE CIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION. MANY OF THE TRACK
MODELS KEEP MATTHEW OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA OR EASTERN MEXICO WHERE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS MATTHEW DISSIPATING OR BECOMING A REMNANT
LOW.
WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE LARGEST THREAT FROM MATTHEW IS HEAVY
RAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES DUE
TO MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 16.2N 87.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.5N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 26/1200Z 17.0N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/0000Z 17.5N 91.5W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 91.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories
000
WTNT35 KNHC 251736
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010
...MATTHEW WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER BELIZE...HEAVY
RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 88.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BELIZE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS
WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST. MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
MATTHEW FARTHER INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND MATTHEW
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS COULD STILL OCCUR TODAY
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...
AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIAPAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EVEN AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT35 KNHC 251736
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010
...MATTHEW WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER BELIZE...HEAVY
RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 88.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BELIZE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS
WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST. MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
MATTHEW FARTHER INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND MATTHEW
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS COULD STILL OCCUR TODAY
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...
AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIAPAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EVEN AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW MOVED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE WHILE WEAKENING.
THE CYCLONE DOES NOT HAVE A TIGHT INNER CORE AND WE ARE BASICALLY
TRACKING AN AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE WITH NUMEROUS
RAINBANDS FROM THE ADJACENT EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS
AND GIVEN THAT THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND...
WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
MATTHEW HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN YET...AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
COLLAPSE SOON AND MATTHEW IS LIKELY TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE BASICALLY MEANDERING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF MATTHEW...
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 17.4N 89.4W 30 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 26/0600Z 18.0N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 91.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.5N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 28/1800Z 19.0N 90.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW MOVED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE WHILE WEAKENING.
THE CYCLONE DOES NOT HAVE A TIGHT INNER CORE AND WE ARE BASICALLY
TRACKING AN AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE WITH NUMEROUS
RAINBANDS FROM THE ADJACENT EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS
AND GIVEN THAT THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND...
WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
MATTHEW HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN YET...AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
COLLAPSE SOON AND MATTHEW IS LIKELY TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE BASICALLY MEANDERING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF MATTHEW...
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 17.4N 89.4W 30 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 26/0600Z 18.0N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 91.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.5N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 28/1800Z 19.0N 90.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories
000
WTNT45 KNHC 260233
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AGAIN NEAR THE
CENTER OF MATTHEW TONIGHT. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON
A 25-KT 10-MINUTE WIND FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO NORTH OF THE
CENTER AROUND 0000 UTC...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB IS
BASED ON AN OBSERVATION FROM TIKAL GUATEMALA AS THE CENTER PASSED
NEARBY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
OVER LAND...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT MATTHEW IS
LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12. MATTHEW CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW
DRAMATICALLY. BEYOND THAT TIME...A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT SEEMS LIKELY AS WHAT IS LEFT OF MATTHEW ROTATES
WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION AND A SOUTHWARD TREND IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE WITH MATTHEW AND ITS REMNANTS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WERE THREE OBSERVING SITES IN HONDURAS
AND GUATEMALA THAT REPORTED BETWEEN 6.1 AND 7.3 INCHES OF RAIN IN
THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 0000 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 17.0N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 26/1200Z 17.4N 92.1W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 27/0000Z 17.7N 92.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 92.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 28/0000Z 17.4N 92.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
WTNT45 KNHC 260233
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AGAIN NEAR THE
CENTER OF MATTHEW TONIGHT. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON
A 25-KT 10-MINUTE WIND FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO NORTH OF THE
CENTER AROUND 0000 UTC...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB IS
BASED ON AN OBSERVATION FROM TIKAL GUATEMALA AS THE CENTER PASSED
NEARBY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
OVER LAND...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT MATTHEW IS
LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12. MATTHEW CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW
DRAMATICALLY. BEYOND THAT TIME...A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT SEEMS LIKELY AS WHAT IS LEFT OF MATTHEW ROTATES
WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION AND A SOUTHWARD TREND IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE WITH MATTHEW AND ITS REMNANTS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WERE THREE OBSERVING SITES IN HONDURAS
AND GUATEMALA THAT REPORTED BETWEEN 6.1 AND 7.3 INCHES OF RAIN IN
THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 0000 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 17.0N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 26/1200Z 17.4N 92.1W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 27/0000Z 17.7N 92.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 92.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 28/0000Z 17.4N 92.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
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Well, since nobody will ......
000
WTNT35 KNHC 260841
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010
...MATTHEW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...DRENCHING THE STATES OF
CHIAPAS...TABASCO...OAXACA...AND VERACRUZ...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND MATTHEW
COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY MONDAY NIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA EVEN AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT35 KNHC 260841
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010
...MATTHEW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...DRENCHING THE STATES OF
CHIAPAS...TABASCO...OAXACA...AND VERACRUZ...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND MATTHEW
COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY MONDAY NIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA EVEN AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139027
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Advisories
5 KNHC 261435
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010
VISIBLE/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
DISORGANIZED AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NO MORE THAN 20
KT. MATTHEW HAS WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD WITH A GRADUALLY
DECREASING FORWARD SPEED. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE REMNANT
OF MATTHEW WILL LIKELY BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMNANT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY CLOCKWISE
WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION UNTIL DISSIPATION BY 36 TO
48 HOURS OR SOONER.
EVEN THOUGH THE LOW IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE THE SYSTEM...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/1500Z 17.4N 92.9W 20 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 17.4N 93.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.2N 93.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 28/0000Z 17.1N 93.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010
VISIBLE/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
DISORGANIZED AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NO MORE THAN 20
KT. MATTHEW HAS WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD WITH A GRADUALLY
DECREASING FORWARD SPEED. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE REMNANT
OF MATTHEW WILL LIKELY BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMNANT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY CLOCKWISE
WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION UNTIL DISSIPATION BY 36 TO
48 HOURS OR SOONER.
EVEN THOUGH THE LOW IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE THE SYSTEM...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/1500Z 17.4N 92.9W 20 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 17.4N 93.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.2N 93.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 28/0000Z 17.1N 93.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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