WPAC: INVEST 91W

[StormingB81]

After a quite couple of days a new one has popped up..However must be really new cause there is no information except it saying Invest 91 on the NRL site. once I see it Iwill post it.

[StormingB81]

This is way out there..10N 165E..Here is a photo of it.

Where I am at it wont let me post photos.

[dowdavek]

Starting to watch this here on Guam



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[supercane]

ITOP's weather discussion mentions this as the most likely of 3 identified vorticity centers to develop, although not alot of model support ATT:
ITOP_2010 weather summary

Date(UTC): 2010/09/26 21:28
Author: Gary Foley
Submitted at(UTC): 2010/09/26 22:05
Revised at(UTC): 2010/09/26 23:26
Synoptic Overview:

Meteorology Satellite Image:
Yesterday: Image 1.
Today: Image 2.
Standard pair of images to illustrate changes in past 24 hours.
Shows scattered convection along 10N. Most clustering of
convection is around about 165E and has been coded as ITOP25.

The ITOP24 appears to be around 145E
Model Overview:

EC 850mb Vorticity loop - no significant tropical systems at
analysis time.

EC vorticity Loop

Current Conditions/Review of Yesterday's Forecast:

N/A
DAY 1 (Tomorrow) Update:

There are 3 x 850mb Vorticity centers discernible - located:

Code: Select all

             ITOP24                     ITOP25
At 27/12Z:   11N 142E        11N 152E  13N 163E


All systems are weak and are not supported by corresponding
circulations at the surface.
DAY 2 (Day after tomorrow) Forecast:

In 48 hours the 3 vorticity centers have tracked to:

Code: Select all

            ITOP24                     ITOP25
At 28/12Z:  11N 138E      12N 148E    14N 159E

(Still no surface circulations on high resolution EC model).
Longterm Outlook:

The 3 centers are trackable further into the model run.

Code: Select all

             ITOP24                            ITOP25
At 30/12Z:   14N 129E      16N 141E   17N 150E
At 01/12Z    16N 123E      16N 138E   20N 147E
At 02/12Z    18N 120E      14N 132E   23N 143E
At 04/12Z    Diffuse      Diffuse    27N 138E
At 06/12Z    Diffuse vorticity pattern

Summary:
EC ensembles and latest deterministic run, if anything, favor
more eastern system to have the greater longer-term potential
(ITOP25).

[RobWESTPACWX]

We were looking at that here earlier today, NGPS is picking up on it. Any how, just won the office pool on this one. Here it is! Can't get a break can we?

[RobWESTPACWX]

I think once the upper level low NE of Siapan gives way this system will begin to develop. My guess is 48hrs. What do you guys think?

[supercane]

Congratulations on your win. What were the conditions on the bet, the person closest to stating the first model run to develop a system after Malakas wins? NOGAPS does not cause much excitement for me, but time will tell.
Back on topic, ASCAT over eastern Micronesia showing a weak circulation around Chuuk and Invest 91W/ITOP 25 appearing as a trough axis (no circ as far north as ITOP IDs).

[RobWESTPACWX]

Naa, just if it was going to upgraded to an invest on this particular area. Everyone here was thinking no, even asked JT and they werent saying much about it. Time will tell as you said, will be interesting to see what happens with this in the next 12-24.

[dowdavek]

Looking at the latest NGPS model run I agree that things look like they could get interesting for us.

Honestly, a small system would be nice (without major damage of course), as we could really use the rain on Guam.

[StormingB81]

Looking at the latest NGPS model run I agree that things look like they could get interesting for us.

Honestly, a small system would be nice (without major damage of course), as we could really use the rain on Guam.

Didn;t I hear you guys are in a bad drought right now?

[phwxenthusiast]

hmm, looks to be another taiwanese typhoon on the Nogaps...

[StormingB81]

Should I be like like everyone else in Okinawa and say if it comes near here it wil lturn anyway...lol Looks like it could be either Okinawa or Tawain

[RobWESTPACWX]

I hope it just recurves N, dosent seem like it will happen with the WP high ridging back in.. but let's still hope.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well, just my thoughts on the invest and a few other things in the video here.. I gave storm2k a shout out in there as well.. This site is great!
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3Jrh85-UsI[/youtube]

[dowdavek]

Looking at the latest NGPS model run I agree that things look like they could get interesting for us.

Honestly, a small system would be nice (without major damage of course), as we could really use the rain on Guam.

Didn;t I hear you guys are in a bad drought right now?

We're not in too bad of a drought as is, we're currently 5inches under climatology averages for the year. It's just that when we don't get all of our rainy season rain, the following dry season tends to be drier which leads to dead vegetation and small brush fires. At least that's what happened last year.

Also my inner weather geek would like to be able to say I was in a west pacific typhoon haha.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hey Rob! Great to see you on the board and your videos are awesome - keep up the good work.

I'm back in the Wpac now after missing Fanapi (was clinging precariously onto a cliff top over a lava lake at the time in Vanuatu) so keeping a very close eye on what's brewing!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey Rob! Great to see you on the board and your videos are awesome - keep up the good work.

I'm back in the Wpac now after missing Fanapi (was clinging precariously onto a cliff top over a lava lake at the time in Vanuatu) so keeping a very close eye on what's brewing!

Chasing typhoons is one thing, but omg! I just watched your video at the volcano. WOW! That is some intense stuff!

[dexterlabio]

Well, just my thoughts on the invest and a few other things in the video here.. I gave storm2k a shout out in there as well.. This site is great!
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3Jrh85-UsI[/youtube]

Great video! It's nice to have you here, Rob.



Got this feeling that the systems forming far in the Western Pacific right now could make their way to Taiwan-Okinawa area in the coming days.

A bit OT...October is just 4 days away, and I expect a shocker in this basin for this year's last quarter. 2010's kinda like the 1998 season...late start and seemed to be totally dead until the last quarter came, and typhoons like Babs and Zeb were born. Let's see if this potential cyclone can prove this.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well, looks like the shear from that upper level low to the N got the best of this invest, NRL looks like they have dropped it. I still think we should continue to watch it in the coming days as the shear loosens up. The overall area of convection still has potential. But good news for now!

And thanks dexter! We defiantly are getting in to OT here. Hopefully it ends sooner than later.