ATL: NICOLE - Models

[Stephanie]

Evil can you send that link to the GFDL please?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Get em all here...

Thanks DESTRUCTION. I thought I had that bookmarked at one time.

CMC has a double header forecasted for Florida and the East Coast.

[hurricaneCW]

Is it really going to be that far west, looks like it shoots through Florida and ends up all the way in western PA/eastern Ohio?

[Stephanie]

Is it really going to be that far west, looks like it shoots through Florida and ends up all the way in western PA/eastern Ohio?

I know that they said it was a possibility, but we'll find out in a day or so.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 290049
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0049 UTC WED SEP 29 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162010) 20100929 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100929  0000   100929  1200   100930  0000   100930  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.4N  82.1W   23.0N  81.8W   25.1N  80.5W   28.1N  79.0W
BAMD    21.4N  82.1W   24.0N  81.1W   28.0N  79.8W   33.4N  78.8W
BAMM    21.4N  82.1W   23.2N  81.3W   25.9N  79.8W   30.0N  78.1W
LBAR    21.4N  82.1W   23.8N  81.4W   27.6N  80.6W   32.8N  79.8W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          42KTS          48KTS
DSHP        30KTS          33KTS          39KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101001  0000   101002  0000   101003  0000   101004  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    31.5N  77.4W   35.1N  75.4W   36.9N  71.6W   40.5N  63.4W
BAMD    39.4N  77.4W   51.9N  63.3W   55.8N  36.0W   50.4N  11.0W
BAMM    35.1N  76.2W   44.1N  68.2W   51.8N  50.4W   50.0N  25.3W
LBAR    38.9N  77.5W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        50KTS          38KTS           0KTS           0KTS
DSHP        39KTS          30KTS           0KTS           0KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  21.4N LONCUR =  82.1W DIRCUR =  35DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  20.4N LONM12 =  83.0W DIRM12 =  31DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  19.4N LONM24 =  84.1W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  180NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS =  997MB OUTPRS = 1003MB OUTRAD =  375NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[srainhoutx]

72 hours and we are Sub or Extra Tropical the way I read it.

[blp]

Seems like we missing models on this graphic.

[/code]
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_16.gif

[cycloneye]

Seems like we missing models on this graphic.

[/code]
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_16.gif

Graphic just updated adding the BAMS.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _018.shtml

The Nam seems to really tighten this up in the straights.

[SouthDadeFish]

Lets see if the GFS shows what the NAM does. If its true, thats pretty concerning.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wet

[ROCK]

Pedict team said this was "the big One"....big yes in circulation maybe. ...time is almost up for consolidation, IMO. Maybe after FL if it stay over water long enough. Got a feeling though once passed FL it will go Sub-trop and accelerate up the EC....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Twins..lol

[DESTRUCTION5]

Just a mess....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ooo...Look Stick storms..lol

[shah8]

The top end of the stick doesn't really look like something to be playing with. Isn't the pressure gradient fairly high to the east?

[artist]

Pedict team said this was "the big One"....big yes in circulation maybe. ...time is almost up for consolidation, IMO. Maybe after FL if it stay over water long enough. Got a feeling though once passed FL it will go Sub-trop and accelerate up the EC....

actually, that's what they meant by the big one - they meant the entire mass and how they were following it and what might happen with one of its vortices. That is my understanding anyway.

[ericinmia]

Pedict team said this was "the big One"....big yes in circulation maybe. ...time is almost up for consolidation, IMO. Maybe after FL if it stay over water long enough. Got a feeling though once passed FL it will go Sub-trop and accelerate up the EC....

actually, that's what they meant by the big one - they meant the entire mass and how they were following it and what might happen with one of its vortices. That is my understanding anyway.

At the time, they were making that statement based on what the ECMWF was saying... hence how that statement was following this "ECMWF: ..." They base their Pouch's on model runs, and were saying that this model was predicting a BIG storm...

That is all...

[sandyb]

can someone explain the models to me they are making Nichole stronger as it comes into the carolinas

[plasticup]

can someone explain the models to me they are making Nichole stronger as it comes into the carolinas

Some of them are, but nothing about Cat 1. And the NHC doesn't seem to give that solution much credence. Rainfall is going to be the bigger concern, and I don't have that model with me at the moment

[artist]

can someone explain the models to me they are making Nichole stronger as it comes into the carolinas

sandy - here is the last forecast from the NHC which was just east of your area-
INITIAL 29/0300Z 21.9N 81.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 23.3N 81.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 26.3N 80.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 30.6N 79.3W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 01/0000Z 36.3N 78.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
they are saying the most winds just to your east should be up to around 40 mph.

the last GFDL model run for your area had around 34 mph for your area.
and the ukmet model has it at very weak for your area. Hope this helps. Of course you will probably be getting more rain with this.