ATL: NICOLE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Rainband

Re:

#101 Postby Rainband » Tue Sep 28, 2010 9:48 am

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:News14 Carolina has started talking about it this morning. They are also talking about getting another 8+ inches of rain ahead of the possible approaching storm. That could be almost 20 inches of rain in less than a week before a TC of some sort (here in Wilmington we got 10.33 inches yesterday). Flooding and downed trees could be quite a serious situation.
Yea I saw that on the local news. Hopefully this thing goes well east of you. Stay safe.
0 likes   

User avatar
DanKellFla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1291
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 12:02 pm
Location: Lake Worth, Florida

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#102 Postby DanKellFla » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:10 am

Cuber wrote:
DanKellFla wrote:Is anybody going to go get gas for their generators?


If I were a customer of Lake Worth Utilities I would



I actually LOL'd. That is so true.
I think I am going to get some gas. Just 10 gallons. This year there have been a few suprises as far as rapid intesification goes.
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9793
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#103 Postby artist » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:16 am

DanKellFla wrote:
Cuber wrote:
DanKellFla wrote:Is anybody going to go get gas for their generators?


If I were a customer of Lake Worth Utilities I would



I actually LOL'd. That is so true.
I think I am going to get some gas. Just 10 gallons. This year there have been a few suprises as far as rapid intesification goes.

yeah, out here in the Acreage with FPL we have outages without storms, so we have made certain we have our gas.

GFS 24 hours, looks like the center is going over Lake Okeechobee
Image
Last edited by artist on Tue Sep 28, 2010 11:07 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139071
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : Tropical Depression 16 - Models

#104 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 28, 2010 10:57 am

12z GFS at 36 hours has low pressure just east of Jacksonville.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139071
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : Tropical Depression 16 - Models

#105 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 28, 2010 11:05 am

Outerbanker,low tracks just west of you.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9861
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL : Tropical Depression 16 - Models

#106 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 28, 2010 11:36 am

Image

(2) track camps.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1787
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando

Re: ATL : Tropical Depression 16 - Models

#107 Postby otowntiger » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:33 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image

(2) track camps.
They all pretty much look the same to me. Pretty tightly clustered.
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5459
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#108 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:46 pm

12Z GFDL has jumped west with a SWFL landfall.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1343
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

Re: ATL : Tropical Depression 16 - Models

#109 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:48 pm

:uarrow: Do you happen to have a link? The page i usually visit is still showing the 6z run...
0 likes   

tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1159
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re:

#110 Postby tgenius » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:52 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:12Z GFDL has jumped west with a SWFL landfall.


SWFL Landfall brings more rain to Miami correct?
0 likes   

jhpigott
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 538
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:09 pm
Location: North Palm Beach, Florida

Re:

#111 Postby jhpigott » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:52 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:12Z GFDL has jumped west with a SWFL landfall.


what about intensity??
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5459
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#112 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:53 pm

1: I am using the SFWMD page. The FSU model page doesn't have it up yet.
2: Theoretically yes, more rain for Miami
3: The intensity information will be available when the run is on the FSU model page.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4671
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL : Tropical Depression 16 - Models

#113 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:54 pm

Updated model plots:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5459
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#114 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:01 pm

12Z HWRF also over SWFL, but no more hurricane, only 42 knots.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL : Tropical Depression 16 - Models

#115 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:08 pm

I think the model runs will change some what to the west. The frontal boundary across Florida is no longer progressing to the southeast. It has started to back up to the north west.
0 likes   

Eyeofdtiger75
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:50 pm

Re: ATL : Tropical Depression 16 - Models

#116 Postby Eyeofdtiger75 » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:12 pm

What will this mean to the Orlando area?
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL : Tropical Depression 16 - Models

#117 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:27 pm

Right now you have more rain headed your way. As far as TD 16, we will have to wait and see.
0 likes   

WX183
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9
Age: 57
Joined: Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:24 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL : Tropical Depression 16 - Models

#118 Postby WX183 » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:32 pm

GFDL 12 Z just below hurricane strength approaching SW FL, actually strengthens over land.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
0 likes   

hurricaneCW
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1773
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
Location: Toms River, NJ

Re: ATL : Tropical Depression 16 - Models

#119 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:47 pm

That's unfortunate that the models keep shifting west once Nicole transitions, I was really hoping for a few inches of rain. What we had for the past 2 days wasn't anything too impressive, mostly pockets of stronger showers. In the end a bit of dent in the drought, not nothing to eliminate it.
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5459
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#120 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:51 pm

Any word on what the 12z ECMWF is showing?
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 94 guests