WTNT31 KNHC 281456
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 82.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES FROM MANTANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING INCLUDES
THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT ISLAND...
THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE AND FOR THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CROSS CUBA
TONIGHT AND BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IN THIS CASE MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE
OCCURING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON THURSDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS
IN THE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
__________________________________________________________________________________
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED A
SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SURFACE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CUBA AND
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. BY 48
HOURS...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN 72 HOURS OR SOONER AS THE MODELS
DEPICT A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/9. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OCCURING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. IF THIS STRUCTURE PERSISTS...THE TRACK OF THE CENTER
WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.6N 82.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.6N 81.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 23.5N 80.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 26.5N 80.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
__________________________________________________________________________________
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1500 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES FROM MANTANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING INCLUDES
THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT ISLAND...
THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE AND FOR THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 82.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 82.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 82.8W
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.6N 81.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.5N 80.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 82.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
ATL: NICOLE - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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ATL: NICOLE - Advisories
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 82.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CROSS CUBA
TONIGHT AND BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IN THIS CASE MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE
OCCURING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON THURSDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS
IN THE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 82.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CROSS CUBA
TONIGHT AND BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IN THIS CASE MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE
OCCURING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON THURSDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS
IN THE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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HenkL
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 282052
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
CONSISTED OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY UNIFORM
PRESSURE. INDEED...WINDS WERE 20 KT OR LESS WITHIN 100 N MI OR
MORE OF THE CENTER. CLEARLY...THIS IS NOT A CLASSICAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED SOME 200 N MI SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42057 FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING AND ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1500 UTC SUGGESTED THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY HAVE BEEN A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM EARLIER TODAY. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION...HOWEVER...AS TO WHETHER THOSE WINDS WERE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE SCALE. IN ANY EVENT...RECENT
HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOWS NO EVIDENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH RAGGED-LOOKING BANDING FEATURES AND VERY LITTLE
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE LATEST STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM PREDICTION. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE WITH A FRONT
AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
MODELS ALSO SHOW WHAT APPEARS TO BE A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT TO
THE NORTH REPLACING THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AIRCRAFT...SURFACE...AND SATELLITE DATA THE
CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC REASONING. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH ACCELERATION...BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED UNTIL
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT QUITE CLOSE TO THE NEW U.K. MET.
OFFICE AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL TRACKS.
UNLESS THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE TIGHTENS UP SOON...THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE CENTER ACROSS CUBA AND FLORIDA WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIMPORTANT...SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
OCCUR WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/2100Z 21.5N 82.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 23.0N 81.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 25.4N 80.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 29.0N 79.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 34.0N 78.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT41 KNHC 282052
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
CONSISTED OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY UNIFORM
PRESSURE. INDEED...WINDS WERE 20 KT OR LESS WITHIN 100 N MI OR
MORE OF THE CENTER. CLEARLY...THIS IS NOT A CLASSICAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED SOME 200 N MI SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42057 FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING AND ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1500 UTC SUGGESTED THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY HAVE BEEN A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM EARLIER TODAY. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION...HOWEVER...AS TO WHETHER THOSE WINDS WERE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE SCALE. IN ANY EVENT...RECENT
HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOWS NO EVIDENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH RAGGED-LOOKING BANDING FEATURES AND VERY LITTLE
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE LATEST STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM PREDICTION. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE WITH A FRONT
AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
MODELS ALSO SHOW WHAT APPEARS TO BE A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT TO
THE NORTH REPLACING THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AIRCRAFT...SURFACE...AND SATELLITE DATA THE
CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC REASONING. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH ACCELERATION...BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED UNTIL
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT QUITE CLOSE TO THE NEW U.K. MET.
OFFICE AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL TRACKS.
UNLESS THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE TIGHTENS UP SOON...THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE CENTER ACROSS CUBA AND FLORIDA WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIMPORTANT...SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
OCCUR WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/2100Z 21.5N 82.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 23.0N 81.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 25.4N 80.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 29.0N 79.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 34.0N 78.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139141
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 282339
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION RE-FORMS A LITTLE TO THE EAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 82.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL CROSS CUBA TONIGHT AND BE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IN THIS CASE MOST OF THE STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON
THURSDAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 997 MB...29.44
INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS
IN THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION RE-FORMS A LITTLE TO THE EAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 82.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL CROSS CUBA TONIGHT AND BE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IN THIS CASE MOST OF THE STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON
THURSDAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 997 MB...29.44
INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS
IN THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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- Posts: 46086
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608
WTNT31 KNHC 290242
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 81.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CROSS CUBA
TONIGHT AND BE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY IN BANDS WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON
THURSDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS
IN THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT31 KNHC 290242
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 81.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CROSS CUBA
TONIGHT AND BE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY IN BANDS WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ON
THURSDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS
IN THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139141
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories
WTNT41 KNHC 290242
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN CONTINUES TO HAVE A STRUCTURE MORE
CHARACTERISTIC OF A WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC/NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
MONSOON DEPRESSION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS OVER AN AREA ENCOMPASSING 100 N MI IN
DIAMETER FROM THE CENTER...AND THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
CONVECTION ARE 250-300 N MI AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. AN EARLIER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER MISSION IN THIS AREA FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 997 MB.
THERE ARE MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRLS PRESENT...AND THE CENTER
APPEARS TO RE-FORM FROM TIME TO TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION OF 035/7
IS THUS A BIT UNCERTAIN. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK. A COMBINATION OF A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD
STEER THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH ACCELERATION FOR THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK NORTHWARD MOTION. THERE IS
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE SPEED AND DIRECTION OF MOTION BY 48 HR.
THE GFS... GFDL...AND HWRF ARE MUCH FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN ARE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT. THESE DIFFERENCES LIKELY RESULT
FROM THE MODEL HANDLING OF THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING WITH A
DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 15 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR. THUS...NEITHER THE
ENVIRONMENT NOR THE CURRENT STRUCTURE ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH MODEST STRENGTHENING ALONG THE LINES OF
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HR OR SO AND BE COMPLETE BY 36-48 HR. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY THE EASTERN U. S. BAROCLINIC
LOW AFTER 48 HR...AS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
UNLESS THE STRUCTURE CHANGES RADICALLY IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0300Z 21.9N 81.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 23.3N 81.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 26.3N 80.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 30.6N 79.3W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 01/0000Z 36.3N 78.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 02/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN CONTINUES TO HAVE A STRUCTURE MORE
CHARACTERISTIC OF A WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC/NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
MONSOON DEPRESSION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS OVER AN AREA ENCOMPASSING 100 N MI IN
DIAMETER FROM THE CENTER...AND THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
CONVECTION ARE 250-300 N MI AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. AN EARLIER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER MISSION IN THIS AREA FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 997 MB.
THERE ARE MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRLS PRESENT...AND THE CENTER
APPEARS TO RE-FORM FROM TIME TO TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION OF 035/7
IS THUS A BIT UNCERTAIN. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK. A COMBINATION OF A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD
STEER THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH ACCELERATION FOR THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK NORTHWARD MOTION. THERE IS
SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE SPEED AND DIRECTION OF MOTION BY 48 HR.
THE GFS... GFDL...AND HWRF ARE MUCH FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN ARE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT. THESE DIFFERENCES LIKELY RESULT
FROM THE MODEL HANDLING OF THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING WITH A
DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 15 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR. THUS...NEITHER THE
ENVIRONMENT NOR THE CURRENT STRUCTURE ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH MODEST STRENGTHENING ALONG THE LINES OF
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HR OR SO AND BE COMPLETE BY 36-48 HR. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY THE EASTERN U. S. BAROCLINIC
LOW AFTER 48 HR...AS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
UNLESS THE STRUCTURE CHANGES RADICALLY IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0300Z 21.9N 81.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 23.3N 81.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 26.3N 80.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 30.6N 79.3W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 01/0000Z 36.3N 78.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 02/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 290853
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION EMERGING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIT...HEAVY
RAINS SPREADING ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 81.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE NEAR
OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE SURFACE WINDS ARE VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE ON THURSDAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM CUBA AND
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS
TODAY.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT31 KNHC 290853
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION EMERGING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIT...HEAVY
RAINS SPREADING ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 81.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE NEAR
OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE SURFACE WINDS ARE VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE ON THURSDAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM CUBA AND
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING THE WARNING AREAS
TODAY.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes
Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories
000
WTNT41 KNHC 290857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM
KEY WEST AND MIAMI...ALONG WITH RADAR RADAR FROM CUBA INDICATE
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ALSO...AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLYING BETWEEN FLORIDA AND
CUBA HAS INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 33 KT IN UNCONTAMINATED SFMR
DATA ABOUT 80-120 NMI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS MUCH
CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN SEEN NOTED IN PRIOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RECON DATA. THE LARGEST DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY VALUES DETECTED
THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 40-44 KT BETWEEN 6000-12000 FT. THIS INDICATES
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.
THE DEPRESSION IS ON TRACK AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
020/12. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
BEEN STEADILY BACKING AROUND FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
DIG SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
ALONG 85W...THE FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ACCELERATE THE DEPRESSION TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TODAY...AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE STRONG BACKING
FLOW PATTERN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY ARGUES FOR KEEPING THE FORECAST
TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN OR LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 30 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST LATER TODAY. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND BE COMPLETE
BY 36-48 HR AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY 48 HOURS...THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER U. S. BAROCLINIC OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0900Z 23.3N 81.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 25.2N 80.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 28.9N 79.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 33.8N 78.6W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 01/0600Z 40.0N 77.3W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT41 KNHC 290857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM
KEY WEST AND MIAMI...ALONG WITH RADAR RADAR FROM CUBA INDICATE
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ALSO...AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLYING BETWEEN FLORIDA AND
CUBA HAS INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 33 KT IN UNCONTAMINATED SFMR
DATA ABOUT 80-120 NMI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS MUCH
CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN SEEN NOTED IN PRIOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RECON DATA. THE LARGEST DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY VALUES DETECTED
THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 40-44 KT BETWEEN 6000-12000 FT. THIS INDICATES
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.
THE DEPRESSION IS ON TRACK AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
020/12. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
BEEN STEADILY BACKING AROUND FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
DIG SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
ALONG 85W...THE FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ACCELERATE THE DEPRESSION TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TODAY...AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE STRONG BACKING
FLOW PATTERN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY ARGUES FOR KEEPING THE FORECAST
TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN OR LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 30 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST LATER TODAY. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND BE COMPLETE
BY 36-48 HR AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY 48 HOURS...THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER U. S. BAROCLINIC OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0900Z 23.3N 81.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 25.2N 80.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 28.9N 79.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 33.8N 78.6W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 01/0600Z 40.0N 77.3W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139141
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories
291149
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
800 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...CENTER
RELOCATED...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 81.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MAY
BE BECOMING LESS WELL DEFINED AND HAS BEEN RELOCATED OVER CENTRAL
CUBA. AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9
MPH...15 KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE NEAR
OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM CUBA IS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREAS TODAY.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
800 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...CENTER
RELOCATED...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 81.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MAY
BE BECOMING LESS WELL DEFINED AND HAS BEEN RELOCATED OVER CENTRAL
CUBA. AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9
MPH...15 KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE NEAR
OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM CUBA IS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREAS TODAY.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139141
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...CENTER STILL NEAR CENTRAL
CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 80.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR FLORIDA HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. NICOLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF NICOLE WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BEFORE NICOLE IS ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW ON
THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM CUBA IS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...CENTER STILL NEAR CENTRAL
CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 80.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR FLORIDA HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. NICOLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A MOTION TO THE
NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF NICOLE WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BEFORE NICOLE IS ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW ON
THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM CUBA IS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139141
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories
000
WTNT31 KNHC 291745
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
200 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
...CIRCULATION OF NICOLE BECOMING POORLY DEFINED...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 80.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
NICOLE IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND LESS DEFINED.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. NICOLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NICOLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE NICOLE IS
ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT31 KNHC 291745
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
200 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
...CIRCULATION OF NICOLE BECOMING POORLY DEFINED...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 80.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
NICOLE IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND LESS DEFINED.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. NICOLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NICOLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE NICOLE IS
ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139141
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories
Last Advisory
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
SATELLITE...AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
NICOLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER...
WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED...HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. THIS NEW LOW...NOT CONSIDERED TO BE THE REMNANT OF
NICOLE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES AS A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
RAINFALL IN FLORIDA SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.5N 80.0W 35 KT...POST-TROPICAL
12HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
SATELLITE...AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
NICOLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER...
WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED...HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. THIS NEW LOW...NOT CONSIDERED TO BE THE REMNANT OF
NICOLE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES AS A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
RAINFALL IN FLORIDA SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.5N 80.0W 35 KT...POST-TROPICAL
12HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139141
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Advisories
Last Advisory
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
SATELLITE...AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
NICOLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER...
WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED...HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. THIS NEW LOW...NOT CONSIDERED TO BE THE REMNANT OF
NICOLE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES AS A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
RAINFALL IN FLORIDA SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.5N 80.0W 35 KT...POST-TROPICAL
12HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
SATELLITE...AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
NICOLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER...
WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED...HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. THIS NEW LOW...NOT CONSIDERED TO BE THE REMNANT OF
NICOLE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES AS A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
RAINFALL IN FLORIDA SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.5N 80.0W 35 KT...POST-TROPICAL
12HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
It makes sense that NHC declared this as the last advisory. I think it is clear now that the extratropical transition had long transpired since this morning in my opinion. I never really thought there was a true defined circulation center when Recon investigated earlier this morning in the area around the north coast of Cuba. Thus, I was very surprised NHC upgraded this to tropical storm in the first place. But, the guys at NHC are the experts, so they had enough info in their judgment to upgrade the system.
But, I hope and pray for the best for everyone in the flooded areas of East Central Florida (Brevard, St Lucie counties), SE Florida and Eastern North Carolina!
But, I hope and pray for the best for everyone in the flooded areas of East Central Florida (Brevard, St Lucie counties), SE Florida and Eastern North Carolina!
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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