ATL: OTTO - Models

[gatorcane]

00z nam moving slowly wnw, trough lifting out.

[AJC3]

It's important to note that while the main cutoff low very (and I mean very) slowly lifts out of the eastern U.S. from days 3-5, the mid to upper level flow over the southeastern U.S. remains westerly for the foreseeable future. The threat for a system approaching FL from the east or southeast is very low now, from both a climotological standpoint, and more importantly, the synoptic pattern favors the CONUS remaining landfall free through mid October. It's looking more and more like a climo-favored system originating in the western Caribbean and moving northeast toward the Greater Antilles or FL would be about the only threat for a CONUS landfall for the remainder of the season, unless some sort of an unusual early fall-season high amplitude block forms.

[floridasun78]

i been told few people who know models that nam cannot be trust for tropical system i see few here look at it for tropical system it have soso recond of doing good with tropical system i go with other models to see what going happen with tropical system not nam

[floridasun78]

It's important to note that while the main cutoff low very (and I mean very) slowly lifts out of the eastern U.S. from days 3-5, the mid to upper level flow over the southeastern U.S. remains westerly for the foreseeable future. The threat for a system approaching FL from the east or southeast is very low now, from both a climotological standpoint, and more importantly, the synoptic pattern favors the CONUS remaining landfall free through mid October. It's looking more and more like a climo-favored system originating in the western Caribbean and moving northeast toward the Greater Antilles or FL would be about the only threat for a CONUS landfall for the remainder of the season, unless some sort of an unusual early fall-season high amplitude block forms.

i agree with you this time a year system that area dont affect usa i not say could happen but unlikely to happen because weather setup in usa now in fall if was aug i be little more worry

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 041324
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1324 UTC MON OCT 4 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20101004 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101004  1200   101005  0000   101005  1200   101006  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.7N  65.4W   18.1N  67.1W   18.5N  68.8W   18.9N  70.0W
BAMD    17.7N  65.4W   17.8N  66.7W   18.1N  67.9W   18.6N  68.9W
BAMM    17.7N  65.4W   17.8N  67.0W   18.0N  68.4W   18.3N  69.3W
LBAR    17.7N  65.4W   18.2N  67.5W   18.9N  69.3W   19.6N  71.2W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          32KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          32KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101006  1200   101007  1200   101008  1200   101009  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.0N  70.9W   19.0N  71.7W   19.9N  72.1W   21.9N  73.5W
BAMD    18.9N  69.7W   19.6N  70.4W   22.0N  69.6W   27.2N  59.3W
BAMM    18.4N  69.7W   19.0N  68.2W   22.3N  63.4W   26.3N  54.5W
LBAR    20.3N  72.8W   21.7N  73.9W   23.6N  72.6W   27.5N  67.4W
SHIP        50KTS          66KTS          74KTS          78KTS
DSHP        37KTS          38KTS          46KTS          50KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.7N LONCUR =  65.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  17.6N LONM12 =  62.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  17.6N LONM24 =  60.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has it forming just north of Puerto Rico, but moves it NE from there.

48 hours.



96 hours.

[HURAKAN]

NAM 48 hours

[HURAKAN]

NAM 84 hours ... intensifying and moving north

[MortisFL]

Why is the NAM even posted? Does it ever verify?

[HURAKAN]

Why is the NAM even posted? Does it ever verify?

Because it's showing, more or less, the same thing the ECMWF is showing

[HURAKAN]

GFS 48 hours



120 hours

[HURAKAN]

GFS



CMC

[cycloneye]

The 12z package of global models has this developing just north of PR/Hispanola and moving NE thru the open Atlantic,in other words,there is a consensus about having Otto.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 041940
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1940 UTC MON OCT 4 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20101004 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101004  1800   101005  0600   101005  1800   101006  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.7N  65.8W   18.3N  67.4W   18.9N  68.9W   19.3N  69.9W
BAMD    17.7N  65.8W   18.0N  67.1W   18.6N  68.3W   19.0N  69.2W
BAMM    17.7N  65.8W   18.1N  67.3W   18.6N  68.7W   19.0N  69.6W
LBAR    17.7N  65.8W   18.2N  67.5W   18.9N  69.1W   19.8N  70.9W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          33KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101006  1800   101007  1800   101008  1800   101009  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.6N  70.6W   20.2N  70.6W   22.5N  67.5W   27.3N  56.5W
BAMD    19.5N  69.9W   20.3N  70.4W   23.5N  67.8W   29.6N  55.4W
BAMM    19.2N  70.2W   19.9N  70.0W   23.2N  66.2W   28.8N  54.4W
LBAR    20.4N  72.1W   21.8N  72.7W   23.9N  70.8W   27.7N  64.6W
SHIP        53KTS          73KTS          78KTS          79KTS
DSHP        27KTS          33KTS          38KTS          38KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.7N LONCUR =  65.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  17.6N LONM12 =  64.1W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  17.6N LONM24 =  61.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[plasticup]

The 12z package of global models has this developing just north of PR/Hispanola and moving NE thru the open Atlantic,in other words,there is a consensus about having Otto.

And the consensus is also that Otto will be a big fat pile of nothing. PR is in for a rain event either way, but the models don't show Otto being much worse than that.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 050110
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0110 UTC TUE OCT 5 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20101005 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101005  0000   101005  1200   101006  0000   101006  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.5N  64.5W   18.7N  66.1W   19.7N  67.5W   20.4N  68.5W
BAMD    17.5N  64.5W   18.3N  65.9W   19.2N  67.1W   19.9N  68.0W
BAMM    17.5N  64.5W   18.4N  66.1W   19.2N  67.4W   19.8N  68.4W
LBAR    17.5N  64.5W   18.1N  65.4W   19.0N  66.4W   19.6N  67.2W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          25KTS          34KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101007  0000   101008  0000   101009  0000   101010  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.8N  68.9W   22.5N  67.5W   26.6N  62.2W   31.2N  52.0W
BAMD    20.6N  68.6W   22.7N  68.8W   27.7N  63.3W   34.4N  51.0W
BAMM    20.3N  68.9W   22.1N  68.2W   26.6N  62.3W   32.8N  50.8W
LBAR    19.8N  67.4W   21.8N  66.1W   26.0N  61.3W   32.3N  51.4W
SHIP        57KTS          75KTS          78KTS          74KTS
DSHP        56KTS          73KTS          76KTS          72KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.5N LONCUR =  64.5W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR =   1KT
LATM12 =  17.6N LONM12 =  64.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =  17.6N LONM24 =  62.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[gatorcane]

Strong consensus on a recurve. Upper-level westerlies are just too entrenched now across the sw Atlantic.

[srainhoutx]

Caution as this disturbance is still affecting the Islands tonight.

[plasticup]

:uarrow:

Caution as this disturbance is still affecting the Islands tonight.

Even the most bullish models don't do much to it in time to affect the islands. Although the local radars are showing some serious rain

[Typhoon_Willie]

That serious rain can lead to serious flooding an landslides though.