Link to NRL
94WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-141N-1423E.
Nothing on JMA.
ASCAT relatively unimpressive:
From NWS Guam discussion:
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 300813 AAA
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
600 PM CHST THU SEP 30 2010
MICRONESIAN SECTION ADDED
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE MARIANAS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
GFS AND UKMET AGREE ON MOVING THE DISTURBANCE NW OUT OF THE MARIANAS
LATE THIS EVENING...AND SATELLITE AND RADAR BOTH SHOW THE MASS OF
WEATHER WORKING SLOWLY NORTH AND NW. THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER
OFF AROUND 10 PM...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER. DRYING IS
INDICATED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FRI NITE ON...SO SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR WET SEASON.
And relevant excerpts from ITOP discussion from yesterday:
Synoptic Overview:
Meteorology Satellite Image:
Yesterday: Image 1.
Today: Image 2.
Standard pair of images to illustrate changes in past 24 hours.
Overall, there has been slightly better organization notable
over this period. A cloud feature is consolidating in the South
China Sea around 113E...ITOP24 has tracked to around 127E with
some sense of rotation evident...ITOP26 is trackable to 135E but
has not developed...ITOP25 has moved to around Guam
longitudes...evidence on Guam radar of rotation...925mb heights
have fallen 6 decameters in last 12 hours at Guam.
Model Overview:
EC 850mb Vorticity loop -
EC vorticity Loop
Model intercomparison at 01/12Z: Most vorticity being steered
into South China Sea...
model.ComNGU_1deg.201009291200.048_Vort-850-streaml.gif
Current Conditions/Review of Yesterday's Forecast:
The forecast suggested that there was little evidence of
development of the cloud clusters in the short term but favored
the EC scenario of development west of the Philippines in the
next few days. The GFS model preferred rapid development by
03/12Z around 20N 132E at the expense of the low in the South
China Sea (SCS) but has now locked into the SCS system as the
dominating feature.
DAY 1 (Tomorrow) Update:
In 24 hours the most significant vorticity centers are tracking
to:
ITOP24 ITOP25
At 30/12Z: 12.5N 126E 11.5N 141E
South China Sea (SCS) low:9N 113E
Positions consistent with previous 24 hour model run
ECMWF 925mb Streamlines for 30/12Z.
model.ECMWF_05deg_SmallDomain.201009291200.024_Isotach-925-strea
m.png
DAY 2 (Day after tomorrow) Forecast:
In 48 hours the vorticity centers are tracking to:
ITOP24 ITOP25
At 01/12Z: wave on 122E 15N 141E
SCS low: 9.6N 110.4E
ECMWF 925mb Streamlines for 01/12Z.
model.ECMWF_05deg_SmallDomain.201009291200.048_Isotach-925-strea
m.png
Longterm Outlook:
The 3 centers are trackable further into the model run.
SCS Low ITOP24 ITOP25
At 02/12Z 11N 110E diffuse 18N139E
At 03/12Z 11N 109E - 22N 137E
At 04/12Z 13N 106E - 24N 138E
