BAY OF BENGAL - INVEST 95B
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HURAKAN
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N
85.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 80.8E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
BETWEEN 06/02Z AND 06/09Z DEPICTED A CLEARLY DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TRACKING NORTHWARD WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A
06/12Z SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND A 061119Z SSMIS WIND
ANALYSIS PRODUCT CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PERSISTENT CLOSED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN A MONSOON DEPRESSION, WITH WEAKER WINDS
AT THE CENTER (10-15 KNOTS) AND STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY
(APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS). THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR
85.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 80.8E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
BETWEEN 06/02Z AND 06/09Z DEPICTED A CLEARLY DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TRACKING NORTHWARD WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A
06/12Z SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND A 061119Z SSMIS WIND
ANALYSIS PRODUCT CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PERSISTENT CLOSED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN A MONSOON DEPRESSION, WITH WEAKER WINDS
AT THE CENTER (10-15 KNOTS) AND STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY
(APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS). THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR
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RobWESTPACWX
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Re: BAY OF BENGAL - INVEST 95B
JT has a poor area on this invest as well.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
Looks like it did have alot of convection so can't rule out development, this time of year usually is when you do see systems form in this part of the basin.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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P.K.
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Re: BAY OF BENGAL - INVEST 95B
This is now a Depression.
DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 07-10-2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 07 OCTOBER, 2010 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 07 OCTOBER, 2010 (.)
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERIES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 07TH OCTOBER 2010 NEAR LATITUDE 16.50N AND 84.50E, ABOUT 180 KM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM (43149), 300 KM SOUTH OF GOPALPUR (43049) AND 700 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA (42901).
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE INITIALLY NORTHWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND THEN RECURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS.
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 998 HPA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHEAR PATTERN. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL WEST OF LONG 87.0E.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -800C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS. THERE IS NEGATIVE 24 HR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 190 N IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER MYANMAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (300-320 C), AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (MORE THAN 100 KJ/CM2) OVER THE REGION ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 07-10-2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 07 OCTOBER, 2010 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 07 OCTOBER, 2010 (.)
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERIES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 07TH OCTOBER 2010 NEAR LATITUDE 16.50N AND 84.50E, ABOUT 180 KM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM (43149), 300 KM SOUTH OF GOPALPUR (43049) AND 700 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA (42901).
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE INITIALLY NORTHWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND THEN RECURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS.
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 998 HPA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHEAR PATTERN. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL WEST OF LONG 87.0E.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -800C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS. THERE IS NEGATIVE 24 HR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 190 N IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER MYANMAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (300-320 C), AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (MORE THAN 100 KJ/CM2) OVER THE REGION ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
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RobWESTPACWX
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Re: BAY OF BENGAL - INVEST 95B
hehe BOB, I'm sure it stands for Bay of Bengal, but still.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION BOB02-2010
17:30 PM IST October 7 2010
======================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression BOB02-2010 over west central Bay of Bengal moved north northeastward and lays centered over west central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal near 18.5N 85.0E, or about 200 kms northeast of Visakhapatnam, 90 kms south southeast of Gopalphur, and 450 kms southwest of Digha, West Bengal.
The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would move further north northeast and cross Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip by midnight or tomorrow
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.
Satellite imagery indicates shear pattern. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection over northwest and west central Bay of Bengal, to the west of 89.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -80C.
Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is between 10-20 knots. There is negative 24 hr tendency of vertical wind shear to the north of the system's center. The system lies close to the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 18.0N. Sea surface temperature is 30-32C, However the ocean heat content over the north Bay of Bengal is not favorable for intensification.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION BOB02-2010
17:30 PM IST October 7 2010
======================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression BOB02-2010 over west central Bay of Bengal moved north northeastward and lays centered over west central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal near 18.5N 85.0E, or about 200 kms northeast of Visakhapatnam, 90 kms south southeast of Gopalphur, and 450 kms southwest of Digha, West Bengal.
The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would move further north northeast and cross Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip by midnight or tomorrow
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.
Satellite imagery indicates shear pattern. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection over northwest and west central Bay of Bengal, to the west of 89.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -80C.
Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is between 10-20 knots. There is negative 24 hr tendency of vertical wind shear to the north of the system's center. The system lies close to the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 18.0N. Sea surface temperature is 30-32C, However the ocean heat content over the north Bay of Bengal is not favorable for intensification.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
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RobWESTPACWX
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To RobWEST:
Source: IMD, Cyclone page, FAQ
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/faq/FAQP.htm
How does IMD mention state of sea in the bulletins?
This is mentioned subjectively in plain language like rough sea, very rough sea etc. based on the prevailing wind over the sea surface as mentioned below.
Descriptive Term
Height
Metres
Wind Speed
Knots (Kmph)
Inbeaufort
Scale
CALM (GLASSY)
0
0
0
CALM (RIPPLED)
0 - 0.1
1 - 3 (2 - 6)
1
SMOOTH
(WAVELESS)
0.1 - 0.5
4 - 10 (7 - 19)
2 - 3
SLIGHT
0.5 - 1.25
11 - 16 (20 - 30)
4
MODERATE
1.25 - 2.5
17 - 21 (31 - 39)
5
ROUGH
2.5 - 4.0
22 - 27 (41 - 50)
6
VERY ROUGH
4.0 - 6.0
28 - 33 (52 - 61)
7
HIGH
6.0 - 9.0
34 - 40 (63 - 74)
8
VERY HIGH
9.0 - 14.0
41 - 63 (76 - 117)
9 - 11
PHENOMENAL
OVER 14
64 OR ABOVE
(119 OR ABOVE)
12
Source: IMD, Cyclone page, FAQ
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/faq/FAQP.htm
How does IMD mention state of sea in the bulletins?
This is mentioned subjectively in plain language like rough sea, very rough sea etc. based on the prevailing wind over the sea surface as mentioned below.
Descriptive Term
Height
Metres
Wind Speed
Knots (Kmph)
Inbeaufort
Scale
CALM (GLASSY)
0
0
0
CALM (RIPPLED)
0 - 0.1
1 - 3 (2 - 6)
1
SMOOTH
(WAVELESS)
0.1 - 0.5
4 - 10 (7 - 19)
2 - 3
SLIGHT
0.5 - 1.25
11 - 16 (20 - 30)
4
MODERATE
1.25 - 2.5
17 - 21 (31 - 39)
5
ROUGH
2.5 - 4.0
22 - 27 (41 - 50)
6
VERY ROUGH
4.0 - 6.0
28 - 33 (52 - 61)
7
HIGH
6.0 - 9.0
34 - 40 (63 - 74)
8
VERY HIGH
9.0 - 14.0
41 - 63 (76 - 117)
9 - 11
PHENOMENAL
OVER 14
64 OR ABOVE
(119 OR ABOVE)
12
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