WPAC: INVEST 98W

[StormingB81]

Located 6N 114E..Near Indonesia..

[Chacor]

Um... that's the southern PI.

[dexterlabio]

The models keep tracking a system located somewhere near Malaysia-south PI and move it towards Vietnam. I thought might be an error (thinking that depressions rarely form in this area), but it seems that they were right since an invest really did show up.

[supercane]

Both Storming and Chacor are right, SW of RPI, NW of Malaysia, and near enough to Indonesia. This is also ITOP 27. Not looking like much now:

From 14Z JTWC summary, new one out shortly:
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N 115.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTH OF BRUNEI. A 081222Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH CURVED INFLOW
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[supercane]

Latest ASCAT still looks like trough axis:

GFS hinting at development as the system approaches the Vietnam coast in 2 days.

[supercane]

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N
115.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 115.5E. APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH
OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090132Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATES A WEAK, DEVELOPING CIRCULATION WITH 10 KNOT WESTERLIES
JUST SOUTH OF 10N. THE 090132Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH A BROAD LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[supercane]

Still carried as an invest on NRL:

But JTWC no longer concerned with development:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
115.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.