ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[fci]

Don't forget that the ecmwf got this right way in advance. The gfs also did quite well.

Both models never showed a threat to Florida except the the gfs 12 day forecast which is not believable anyway

Both models showed a western Cuba threat and a very sheared small system.

Add to the "did quite well" category; wxman57 and AJC3 who both told us from the start that Paula (at the time not even an invest); would never be a threat to Florida.

[supercane]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 140550
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
100 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

...EYE OF PAULA NEARING WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

[supercane]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 140857
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS PAULA A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 84.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...60 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 22.3N 84.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 22.6N 84.0W 60 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 15/0600Z 22.9N 82.5W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 15/1800Z 22.9N 81.1W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/0600Z 22.3N 80.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 17/0600Z 21.5N 79.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[KWT]

Looks like Paula really like Cuba, its goin to do a Fay and try and travel all the way down the spine of the country from the looks of things.

Still hanging on in there as a hurricane as well I see...

[Sanibel]

Did a burst in the Channel last night.


That would be something if Paula looped around and returned as another hurricane in the Caribbean.

[KWT]

Still looking sheared but it appears its gonna stay just to the north of the Cuban coast given it still appears to be moving ENE at the moment.

[AdamFirst]

Is the ACE over 150 now thanks to Paula?

[stormywaves]

Did a burst in the Channel last night.


That would be something if Paula looped around and returned as another hurricane in the Caribbean.

I was taking a look at some of the models and I was wondering the same. Could that possibly happen? If it did would it still be Paula? Or would it be the Richard that I keep reading about. I am a serious novice I just love reading the boards and learning!

[wxman57]

Models initialized at 60 kts now. Recon hasn't found anything to support that Paula is still a hurricane. I wouldn't count on a "Paula II" after it's torn apart by shear in 24-36 hrs.

[stormywaves]

Models initialized at 60 kts now. Recon hasn't found anything to support that Paula is still a hurricane. I wouldn't count on a "Paula II" after it's torn apart by shear in 24-36 hrs.

Thanks...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

I don't think Paula is following the projected path, is it me or does anyone else see that?

[caneman]

Sure looks like it will come very close to Key West to me. Northern end of the cone. Reading back on some of the comments from a couple of poster of how it wouldn't come near Florida is only funny in the sense that Cuba is just 60-90 miles from the Keys which is well within the cone of error. Be careful folks making absolute claims as I've seen here. May need to break out some Crow.

[wxman57]

Sure looks like it will come very close to Key West to me. Northern end of the cone. Reading back on some of the comments from a couple of poster of how it wouldn't come near Florida is only funny in the sense that Cuba is just 60-90 miles from the Keys which is well within the cone of error. Be careful folks making absolute claims as I've seen here. May need to break out some Crow.

Paula will track near the northern coast of Cuba about 70-80 miles south of Key West. "Very close" is a relative term. For a big hurricane, Key West would get some very strong winds with the center passing only 70-80 miles away. However, 39 mph winds will likely only extend about 30 miles north of Paula's center (if that) as it passes south of Key West, so the Keys should see peak sustained NE-E winds of 20-30 mph and a few thunderstorms today/tomorrow.

[KWT]

Looks like it should avoid Cuba but frankly land isn't going to the true killer to this system but its the shear and steady weakening is clearly occuring now...only one way Paula is gonna go now...

[caneman]

I wasn't referencing you WXMAN57, you did a great job forecasting this well in advance. Yes, it is a relative term. Not a very big storm so not much impact. It was a couple of absolute terms thrown out by amateurs that it wouldn't impact Florida. You can not say that when it is within the margin of error, especially important with the bigger storms.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon found a 65 knot SFMR report just now.

[wxman57]

Recon found a 65 knot SFMR report just now.

I don't see it, but I do notice that SFMR readings are now as much as twice as high as FL winds, and many are flagged. Pressure is up to 1007mb, too. Paula isn't a hurricane now.

[wxman57]

I wasn't referencing you WXMAN57, you did a great job forecasting this well in advance. Yes, it is a relative term. Not a very big storm so not much impact. It was a couple of absolute terms thrown out by amateurs that it wouldn't impact Florida. You can not say that when it is within the margin of error, especially important with the bigger storms.

Yeah, I know. I think that the TS watch for south FL was certainly warranted, though it didn't appear that the area would receive such winds given the forecast.

[Sanibel]

Recon found a 65 knot SFMR report just now.

The Yucatan Channel has some nice warm waters. That burst reflected them last night.


Another potential trouble storm, according to climatology, knocked down by synoptics in 2010.


Front coming on strong now:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html



Center moving onshore on Key West long range radar:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes