ATL: PAULA - Models

[caneman]

Reminds me of the old saying that 'even a blind Squirrel gets an Acorn once in a awhile'
One thing if for sure. There hasn't been a stellar model thus far so why not the NOGAPS. We'll see what happens. Either way, shouldn't be too strong - hopefully anyhow.

[caneseddy]

18z NAM out to 54 hours has Paula moving away from the YP NE towards Cuba and the Florida Straits

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

60 hours: weakens it heading towards western tip of Cuba

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

66 hours: seems to intensify it slightly off of the western tip of Cuba; also it looks like it starts to develop another low off of Nicaragua/Costa Rica (Richard?)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[petit_bois]

What does the NAM initialize her at? The same 1012mb?

[caneseddy]

What does the NAM initialize her at? The same 1012mb?

Yep...1012 MB

[caneseddy]

18Z NAM at 72 hours: dissipates her

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[petit_bois]

What does the NAM initialize her at? The same 1012mb?

Yep...1012 MB

weird... huge intensity problems with ALL the models.

[wxman57]

LBAR was the 1st model to put Katrina in the GOM and when the others followed... LBAR was the 1st to put her west of Pensacola. LBAR was the star of the storm of the century.

Even a broken clock is right once (or twice) a day. If I remember correctly, I think it was right on for a number of tracks in 2004 (as an outlier). But it has such a poor track record that it's one of the first models I remove from the model plots.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm not surprised the intensity forecasts are so off and will be off for the entire longevity of this system. Models have a hard time with small storms like Paula so the intensity forecasts are pure garbage. What they see is a small area of low pressure in a not so favorable environment. It's very possible that Paula could rapidly fall apart as it approaches western Cuba. The uncertainties in both the track and intensity are huge and will probably never be completely figured out, especially the intensity.

[Blown Away]

If you want to be very close to the NHC track just follow the TVCN consensus, the NHC justs loves it.

[Evil Jeremy]

18z GFS keeps Paula in the NW Caribbean and dissipates the system in 3 days.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS is more bullish through 72 hours. Still wonder if Paula is a deep cyclone in 24 hours if it ejects to the ENE further north than the NHC forecast, perhaps between South FL and Cuba? the 250MB flow at 24 hours suggest this. I think we'll see a bit of a northward adjustment with the NHC track over the next couple of advisories, so long as Paul stays a deep hurricane.

[Evil Jeremy]

18Z GFS is more bullish through 72 hours. Still wonder if Paula is a deep cyclone in 24 hours if it ejects to the ENE further north than the NHC forecast, perhaps between South FL and Cuba? the 250MB flow at 24 hours suggest this. I think we'll see a bit of a northward adjustment with the NHC track over the next couple of advisories, so long as Paul stays a deep hurricane.

The NHC should defiantly adjust north. Again, their current cone is south of many of the late 12z model runs. Don't know about the early 18z models though. I don't think any model shows this storm moving through Cuba, at least not in a straight line.

[gatorcane]

Folks, the next Western Caribbean threat seems to start developing at 120 hours. Here we are at 144 hours and it is moving NW....

We are talking about it in the Talkin Tropics Long-range models thread:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&start=1780

[hurricaneCW]

I wonder if the intense nor'easter this Thursday/Friday will be able to pull some of Paula's moisture up the coast. I'm saying this because parts of the Northeast had been inundated from flooding rains from Nicole's remnants and any tropical connection has the potential to bring about heavier rains for parts of the northeast.

The gfs actually shows somewhat of a tropical connection but it keeps Paula very weak, I'd imagine a much stronger system could provide more moisture than the gfs depicts.

[Ntxw]

I wonder if the intense nor'easter this Thursday/Friday will be able to pull some of Paula's moisture up the coast. I'm saying this because parts of the Northeast had been inundated from flooding rains from Nicole's remnants and any tropical connection has the potential to bring about heavier rains for parts of the northeast.

The gfs actually shows somewhat of a tropical connection but it keeps Paula very weak, I'd imagine a much stronger system could provide more moisture than the gfs depicts.

Connection or not, the potential nor'easter alone will pack a punch as it is. Wind and waves will be plenty enough to worry about. There will be lots of rain but that won't be as newsworthy this time vs other effects imo.

[Evil Jeremy]

18z GFDL: More west for first day or so, and slightly more south for the rest, lightly scraping the North Cuban coastline.

18z HWRF: Hits west Cuba as a TS... and then loops it back south again.

[Tropics Guy]

Will be interesting to see if the NHC adjusts the cone northward or if they continue to "split the difference" between the GFS ensembles & the other models which have it further south. IMO South FL & especially the Keys still has to watch Paula carefully..........

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

TG

[Weatherfreak000]

Will be interesting to see if the NHC adjusts the cone northward or if they continue to "split the difference" between the GFS ensembles & the other models which have it further south. IMO South FL & especially the Keys still has to watch Paula carefully..........

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

TG

The BAMD has me VERY interested now. It is usually used for strong and stacked systems, which Paula may be, so that may show what that track could look like. Scary scenario if that plays out.

[gatorcane]

Yeah well like I said before tbe gfs ensembles are clustered very tightly over southern Florida showing a ne ejection out if the nw Caribbean. I expect the nhc to nudge the track more to the north and with an ene trajectory through the Florida straits.

[Evil Jeremy]

Its like mother nature threw a grenade into the model plot. No agreement anywhere:
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_18.gif