ATL: PAULA - Models

[caneman]

NOGAPS quickly brings it into SFL in 66+ Hours

I'm starting to wonder if NOGAPS and GFDL have the right idea with this storm whereby the stronger it gets, the more NE it gets pushed up

It would be amazing if Nogaps ends up verifying over the other major models, since NOGAPS is always slammed

It appears it has pushed the shear back and once it starts to go NE going with any wind shear that may be there, it may not having that much impact on it.

[Weatherfreak000]

Paula is going to be a pretty compact sized storm regardless....perhaps that is why the models are all over the place. I was under the impression smaller storms could be susceptible to shear but man...in 12 hours this dies off? GFS has to be phony right now...I wonder how shear tendency is going to impact the storm...either way looking at this map no way no how this opens up anytime soon...

[SouthFloridawx]

:uarrow: Where does the Nogaps go after 66 hours?

Loop: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2010101212&set=Tropical

[caneseddy]

:uarrow: Where does the Nogaps go after 66 hours?

Loop: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2010101212&set=Tropical

Looks like it pulls a reverse Andrew....west to east but much much weaker

[Nimbus]

The ULL over Arkansas responsible for the shear is rolling east but I don't see any digging trough in the gulf yet. If Paula stalls up near the Yucatan channel and the ULL bypasses the shear would eventually let up in just a few days.

The more typical late season scenario is for a trough to dig south and linger on the western edge of the storms anticyclone until the storm gets dragged east and picked up. The further north Paula gets in the near term, the more likely this scenario would occur.

[caneseddy]

12z GFDL has Paula weakening while passing between Cuba and the Keys

12z HWRF takes Paula to the Yucatan Channel then weakens it to a remnant low while moving east and SE south of Cuba

Can't link to it from my current computer

[Evil Jeremy]

The 12z GFS Ensembles are targeting SFL. All of them it seems.

[SootyTern]

It's funny how the models lose it quickly while Paula is busy intensifying into a category two. Nice.

It's like the reverse of Nicole. All these models calling for a strong TS or Cat 1 and I kept looking at the satellite thinking "where?? I don't see anything". Now we have a nice looking little storm down there and models acting like there's nothing. Guess the flesh & blood forecasters of the world won't be losing their jobs anytime soon!

[wxman57]

NOGAPS is one of the worst, if not THE worst, tropical cyclone models. It does indicate very strong upper-level winds across Paula near south FL, along with a frontal boundary associated with Paula. But taking a look at the latest model runs, I see a general trend more east over Cuba. The consensus models are all taking Paula farther east across Cuba by day 5, possibly to its demise inland. NHC will probably adjust their track eastward on the next advisory to somewhere within the red circle on the image below by day 5:

[caneseddy]

NOGAPS is one of the worst, if not THE worst, tropical cyclone models. It does indicate very strong upper-level winds across Paula near south FL, along with a frontal boundary associated with Paula. But taking a look at the latest model runs, I see a general trend more east over Cuba. The consensus models are all taking Paula farther east across Cuba by day 5, possibly to its demise inland. NHC will probably adjust their track eastward on the next advisory to somewhere within the red circle on the image below by day 5:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/models.gif

If NOGAPS is always one of the worse tropical cyclone modesl, why is it still being used? Can't they replace it with another model?

[petit_bois]

If NOGAPS is always one of the worse tropical cyclone modesl, why is it still being used? Can't they replace it with another model?

It's the Navy Model. It does a great job with Marine Forscating.

[SouthDadeFish]

Wxman, what do you make of all the GFS ensembles? They have a nice consensus goin on.

[MWatkins]

I would be VERY careful reading the consensus models in this case. Extreeme outliers like the HWRF are causing some pretty crazy looking, middle of the road tracks that probably won't verify. If you remember, Wilma had some nutty solutions too, including the GFDL doing a SE loop in the Caribbean, which in turn caused the NHC to ignore the consensus models and go with a track to the left of the guidance due to the synoptics.

I think this is another case where somebody over there needs to look at the synoptics and stop making these split the difference track forecasts that are designed strictly to keep the forecast errors down regardless of which scenario plays out.

In this case, I would expect a track on the north side of the guidance envelope through the Florida Straights, south of the Keys and perhaps along the far northern coast of Cuba, with no crazy drop to the south.

It does seem that the NHC is using the consensus models to create forecasts that split the difference in the guidance, as opposed to looking for signs that one situation over the other will evolve. And it's coming from all of the forecasters, which suggests to me that message is coming from the top.

It's simply impossible to tell why Paula wouldn't pop loose and get into the westerlies looking at the GFS 500MB charts, except that the cyclone doesn't even reflect at 500MB for more than a few hours...causing it to be steered by the low level flow (in the model, not the real atmosphere).

MW

[caneman]

Well stated Mike. WXMN57 - It doesn't really matter the history of NOGAPS. What matters is this storm and I don't see it behaving according to other models any better. In fact, I thinking throwing darts at a dart board would do better than any of the models have done thus far this year. IMHO

[HURRICANELONNY]

Couldn't of said it better myself. And I have no met degree. Why does the NHC model hug so much. The obvious is the obvious. Paula will go east and out to sea. Where and when. Well........

[wxman57]

NOGAPS is one of the worst, if not THE worst, tropical cyclone models. It does indicate very strong upper-level winds across Paula near south FL, along with a frontal boundary associated with Paula. But taking a look at the latest model runs, I see a general trend more east over Cuba. The consensus models are all taking Paula farther east across Cuba by day 5, possibly to its demise inland. NHC will probably adjust their track eastward on the next advisory to somewhere within the red circle on the image below by day 5:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/models.gif

If NOGAPS is always one of the worse tropical cyclone modes, why is it still being used? Can't they replace it with another model?

It does well in some regions, but not the Atlantic. And it has other uses (marine wind forecasts) apart from TC track/intensity forecasts. I'd like to see models like LBAR removed from the runs. What's the point of running and displaying such a primitive model that is only occasionally correct by accident?

[caneseddy]

18z NAM out to 36 hours has Paula weak but a little stronger than prior runs making landfall just south of Cancun

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

edit: 42 hours and has it stalled on the NE tip of the YP ala Wilma, although still weak

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

[wxman57]

I would be VERY careful reading the consensus models in this case. Extreeme outliers like the HWRF are causing some pretty crazy looking, middle of the road tracks that probably won't verify. If you remember, Wilma had some nutty solutions too, including the GFDL doing a SE loop in the Caribbean, which in turn caused the NHC to ignore the consensus models and go with a track to the left of the guidance due to the synoptics.

I think this is another case where somebody over there needs to look at the synoptics and stop making these split the difference track forecasts that are designed strictly to keep the forecast errors down regardless of which scenario plays out.

In this case, I would expect a track on the north side of the guidance envelope through the Florida Straights, south of the Keys and perhaps along the far northern coast of Cuba, with no crazy drop to the south.

It does seem that the NHC is using the consensus models to create forecasts that split the difference in the guidance, as opposed to looking for signs that one situation over the other will evolve. And it's coming from all of the forecasters, which suggests to me that message is coming from the top.

It's simply impossible to tell why Paula wouldn't pop loose and get into the westerlies looking at the GFS 500MB charts, except that the cyclone doesn't even reflect at 500MB for more than a few hours...causing it to be steered by the low level flow (in the model, not the real atmosphere).

MW

True, Mike. And the consensus models will generally incorporate the NOGAPS, leading to some pretty bad errors at times. This is a case when the consensus will more than likely be wrong (middle of two extremes). However, my prediction was that the NHC will go with consensus on the next advisory, correct or not.

[petit_bois]

NOGAPS is one of the worst, if not THE worst, tropical cyclone models. It does indicate very strong upper-level winds across Paula near south FL, along with a frontal boundary associated with Paula. But taking a look at the latest model runs, I see a general trend more east over Cuba. The consensus models are all taking Paula farther east across Cuba by day 5, possibly to its demise inland. NHC will probably adjust their track eastward on the next advisory to somewhere within the red circle on the image below by day 5:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/models.gif

If NOGAPS is always one of the worse tropical cyclone modes, why is it still being used? Can't they replace it with another model?

It does well in some regions, but not the Atlantic. And it has other uses (marine wind forecasts) apart from TC track/intensity forecasts. I'd like to see models like LBAR removed from the runs. What's the point of running and displaying such a primitive model that is only occasionally correct by accident?

LBAR was the 1st model to put Katrina in the GOM and when the others followed... LBAR was the 1st to put her west of Pensacola. LBAR was the star of the storm of the century.

[wxman57]

Couldn't of said it better myself. And I have no met degree. Why does the NHC model hug so much. The obvious is the obvious. Paula will go east and out to sea. Where and when. Well........

It's generally difficult for a meteorologist to crawl way out on a limb and forecast something that has no backing by model guidance. If he follows model guidance and the forecasts busts, he can blame bad guidance. If he goes out on a limb and busts, the only blame lies in the forecaster's abilities. It's easier to say "the models were wrong" vs. "I was wrong".