ATL: PAULA - Models

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ATL: PAULA - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 08, 2010 5:29 pm

All global / Bam model runs here.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2231 UTC FRI OCT 8 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101008 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101008  1800   101009  0600   101009  1800   101010  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.2N  78.6W   13.1N  78.8W   13.3N  79.6W   13.2N  80.6W
BAMD    13.2N  78.6W   13.7N  78.9W   14.3N  79.4W   14.8N  80.0W
BAMM    13.2N  78.6W   13.4N  78.8W   13.7N  79.5W   14.0N  80.4W
LBAR    13.2N  78.6W   13.2N  78.8W   14.0N  79.7W   15.3N  80.6W
SHIP        20KTS          21KTS          23KTS          27KTS
DSHP        20KTS          21KTS          23KTS          27KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101010  1800   101011  1800   101012  1800   101013  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.1N  82.0W   12.7N  84.9W   12.2N  88.8W   11.3N  93.9W
BAMD    15.5N  80.6W   16.6N  82.3W   18.2N  85.2W   20.6N  87.2W
BAMM    14.3N  81.6W   15.0N  84.5W   15.5N  88.1W   15.5N  92.0W
LBAR    17.3N  81.2W   22.7N  80.5W   27.8N  73.9W   31.0N  59.0W
SHIP        33KTS          44KTS          48KTS          41KTS
DSHP        33KTS          32KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.2N LONCUR =  78.6W DIRCUR = 170DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 =  79.3W DIRM12 = 154DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  16.7N LONM24 =  80.1W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  220NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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#2 Postby x-y-no » Fri Oct 08, 2010 5:39 pm

pretty serious divergence from the BAM models ...
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#3 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 08, 2010 5:41 pm

Bams sure does...I hope we get the 18Z GFDL/HWRF in about an hour...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 08, 2010 6:39 pm

I think GFDL and HWRF will be out at the 00z run instead of the 18z as this invest was up around 6:20 PM EDT,but I may be wrong on that.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 08, 2010 7:08 pm

The 12z Canadian develops this after it crosses Central Cuba.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 08, 2010 7:15 pm

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 090000
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0000 UTC SAT OCT 9 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101009 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101009  0000   101009  1200   101010  0000   101010  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.4N  78.4W   13.3N  78.9W   13.3N  80.0W   13.0N  81.2W
BAMD    13.4N  78.4W   14.0N  78.9W   14.6N  79.5W   15.3N  80.2W
BAMM    13.4N  78.4W   13.6N  78.6W   14.1N  79.2W   14.6N  80.1W
LBAR    13.4N  78.4W   13.7N  78.8W   14.7N  79.5W   16.1N  80.2W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          32KTS          37KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          32KTS          37KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101011  0000   101012  0000   101013  0000   101014  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.9N  82.5W   12.1N  85.4W   11.4N  89.4W   10.1N  94.7W
BAMD    16.1N  80.8W   17.6N  82.8W   19.9N  84.9W   22.3N  84.6W
BAMM    15.3N  81.1W   16.5N  83.5W   17.8N  86.5W   18.0N  89.4W
LBAR    18.5N  80.6W   24.1N  78.6W   29.0N  69.8W   32.8N  52.3W
SHIP        43KTS          52KTS          53KTS          49KTS
DSHP        43KTS          52KTS          53KTS          35KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.4N LONCUR =  78.4W DIRCUR = 140DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  13.7N LONM12 =  78.9W DIRM12 = 150DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  15.3N LONM24 =  79.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

Image
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#7 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 08, 2010 7:19 pm

Bamd shows a classic October-like track that could pose a threat to western Cuba and South Florida down the road.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models

#8 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 08, 2010 7:51 pm

To kick off the 00z guidance we roll with the NAM in 1 hour.....
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models

#9 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 08, 2010 7:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:I think GFDL and HWRF will be out at the 00z run instead of the 18z as this invest was up around 6:20 PM EDT,but I may be wrong on that.



Your were right Luis..
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models

#10 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Oct 08, 2010 7:57 pm

I'd use a great deal of caution regarding the NAM at this point other than informational interpretation near the Northern Gulf. Just a thought. :wink:
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ATL : INVEST 98L - Discussion

#11 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:07 pm

Luis, what time are the 6Z bams usually out?
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Re:

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:17 pm

Vortex wrote:Luis, what time are the 6Z bams usually out?



Between 2-2:30 AM EDT.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 98L - Models

#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:19 pm

srainhoutx wrote:I'd use a great deal of caution regarding the NAM at this point other than informational interpretation near the Northern Gulf. Just a thought. :wink:


I agree about the NAM not being the best model to follow in the tropics. :)
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#14 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:29 pm

00Z NAM at H48

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif
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Re: Re:

#15 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Vortex wrote:Luis, what time are the 6Z bams usually out?



Between 2-2:30 AM EDT.



Thanks Luis.
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#16 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:35 pm

As has been stated many times..Use the NAM with caution...having said that when it does get it right its as good as the best..

H60 strengthening..looks to be a decent TS at this point and following the BAMD track...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif
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#17 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:38 pm

This run did an excellent job with initialization of the low...something to take into consideration when evaluating the run...
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#18 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:47 pm

H78 much stronger..likely a hurricane over the NW carribean and strengthening...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif
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Re:

#19 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:48 pm

Vortex wrote:H78 stronger..with likely a hurricane over the NW carribean and strengthening...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif


I know it's the nam but wow :eek:

Hard to believe we won't get at least a tropical storm out if this.

Notice cutoff low diving into the southern plains.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#20 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:50 pm

whats concerning is with such favorable environmental conditons over the western carribean in the days to come it seems plausible....
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