WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[Chacor]

BBC repoting that 200 thousand people are now homeless from Megi.

[JTE50]

BBC repoting that 200 thousand people are now homeless from Megi.

Do you have a link? I went to the BBC website and couldn't find the article. Thanks.

[cycloneye]

Jim, I found the BBC link.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11581196

[windysocks]

Woken up to a very blustery morning and Signal No. 3 in Hong Kong.

Still no rain, though.

[StormingB81]

I know this has nothing to do with it but man here in Okinawa this morning it was pouring and black as night. Had to look to see if Megi was north enough tha twe maybe seeing home way outter bands but looks to be not....but man you couldn;t even se out the windshield driving..

[JTE50]

Jim, I found the BBC link.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11581196

Many thanks. I will pass along to some contacts

[StormingB81]

Thats is just jaw dropping to hear 200,000 are homeless.....Hopefully they have alot of help worldwide for disaster relief..you know the US will be first in line and are already helping..

[shah8]

Sure is a big time weakening trend...

[Infdidoll]

Thats is just jaw dropping to hear 200,000 are homeless.....Hopefully they have alot of help worldwide for disaster relief..you know the US will be first in line and are already helping..

They're already there or on their way. My husband said they're fixing an aircraft and then he'll probably be participating in humanitarian relief from the air. I've told him to get some photos of what's going on there. He's gotten some really cool pictures of the Philippines so far.

He was supposed to make it home by Christmas, but because of all the relief work needing done, that may not happen.

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 19.5N 117.4E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 300NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 21.2N 118.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 230000UTC 22.4N 118.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 240000UTC 23.9N 116.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 250000UTC 24.5N 116.7E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
120HF 260000UTC 25.3N 116.4E 375NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =



WTPQ20 BABJ 210100
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 210100 UTC
00HR 19.5N 117.5E 945HPA 50M/S
30KTS 320KM
50KTS 150KM
P12HR N 10KM/H=


07fW40212
WTCI RCTP 210000 =
WARNING VALID 220000Z =
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS =
TYPHOON 201013 (MEGI 201013) WARNING =
POSITION 210000Z AT ONE NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ( 19.5N ) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST ( 117.5E ) =
MOVEMENT NEXT 24HRS NNE BECOMING NORTH 10KM/HR
MIN SURFACE PRESSURE 935 HPA =
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTER 48 METER PER SECOND GUST 58 METER PER SECOND =
RADIUS OF OVER 15M/S WINDS 250 KM =
FORECAST POSITION =
12HRS VALID AT 211200Z AT TWO ZERO POINT SIX NORTH ( 20.6N ) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST ( 117.8E )=
24HRS VALID AT 220000Z AT TWO ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ( 21.7N ) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE EAST ( 117.9E )=
48HRS VALID AT 230000Z AT TWO THREE POINT SIX NORTH ( 23.6N ) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO EAST ( 117.2E )=
72HRS VALID AT 240000Z AT TWO FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ( 25.1N ) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO EAST ( 116.2E )=




TPPN11 PGTW 210027
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 20/2330Z
C. 19.3N
D. 117.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/6.0/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 36A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. A 26NM WMG RAGGED EYE IS
SURROUNDED BY A LG RING. ADDED .5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR A DT OF
5.5. FT BASED ON PT. MET AGREES.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
KIENZLE

735
TCNA21 RJTD 210000 CCA
CCAA 21000 47644 MEGI(1013) 17195 11174 12424 255// 93609=
NAMELESS 18167 11433 14134 215// 92915=

[StormingB81]

Well I hope he makes it home on time!

[HURAKAN]

close up

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 19.4N 117.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 117.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.4N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.5N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.7N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.0N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.0N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.8N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 117.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//

[supercane]

WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE,
RAGGED 40NM EYE SURROUNDED BY A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE EYE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 97 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THE 20/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SHARP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CHINA AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE STABLE AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, SUPPORTING THE
POLEWARD TRACK. AFTER TAU 36, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DE-COUPLE.
SUBSEQUENTLY, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AND THERE IS INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN INTO CHINA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW-
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER KOREA/JAPAN.
C. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 96.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

impressive

[Tom8]

BBC repoting that 200 thousand people are now homeless from Megi.

pictures after 1st minute

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/video/nation ... ge-isabela

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thank God Pagasa and the Philippine govt got most out safe, with the poor infrastructure of the region the very minute amount out of deaths at this time is a testimony to how far they come since last year. You can rebuild homes, but you can't replace a person.

[shah8]

You kinda have to check out the video. Some of those structures were well built. There are denuded entire mountains on the flyby. Trees still standing but no leaves.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 210300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210300UTC 19.7N 117.5E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 300NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 220300UTC 21.2N 118.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 230000UTC 22.4N 118.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 240000UTC 23.9N 116.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

WTPQ20 BABJ 210400
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 210400 UTC
00HR 19.7N 117.5E 945HPA 50M/S
30KTS 320KM
50KTS 150KM
P12HR N 8KM/H=

TXPN23 KNES 210322
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 21/0230Z
C. 19.6N
D. 117.4E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.5/D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...OW RAGGED EYE EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY BLACK FOR
A DT OF 4.5. MET IS 5.5 AND PT IS 5.0. FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...EARLE
=

[RobWESTPACWX]

My video for today...
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1oBtWRu78A[/youtube]