WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[dexterlabio]

90WINVEST.15kts
1010mb-13.6N-144.3E

[RobWESTPACWX]

I can see it, a little rain producer for Guam there, also this could be the wave all the models are picking up on developing later in the week. What do you think dexter?

(only a little convection at this time though...)

[StormingB81]

Whoops didnt see this at first. SHould put WPAC on the title as well to make it less confusing I will delete my Post.

[dexterlabio]

^whoops I forgot to do so. Sorry.

[RobWESTPACWX]

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7N 143.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR FROM GUAM SHOW A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. A 112024Z
WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED LOW LEVEL INFLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. DUE TO THE ORGANIZING LLCC, INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION, AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Typhoon Hunter]

It does seem to be the wave which ECMWF is keen to develop.

It's been upgraded straight to FAIR by JTWC:

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7N 143.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR FROM GUAM SHOW A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. A 112024Z
WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED LOW LEVEL INFLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. DUE TO THE ORGANIZING LLCC, INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION, AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO FAIR.

TPPN11 PGTW 120016

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SW OF GUAM)

B. 11/2330Z

C. 12.4N

D. 144.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG-10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


KIENZLE

[RobWESTPACWX]

You know Typhoon Hunter, I would bet a dime and a nickel that this system will develop in to something.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hey Rob!

Sorry for the cross post there JTWC by-passed POOR!

Yeah if ECMWF is anything to go by then we should see something in the next few days. I think it's 90W it develops and not 91W but I might be wrong. Anyway interests in the Philippines and around the S China Sea might need to keep a close eye on this later in the week.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I noticed GFS picking up on it as well, taking a little farther to the E though. I'v seen JT jump straight to TCFA on occasion, those days stink.

[Typhoon Hunter]

The ECMWF trend continues, in a disturbing way.

The latest run has initialized 90W already and develops it slowly until just offshore N Luzon where it seems to start intensifying. Once in S China Sea, wow, super typhoon...

That's 6 runs in a row it's developed 90W aggressively. An interesting few days ahead indeed!

In SCS:


Near Php:

[dexterlabio]

Models seem to be coming in agreement on this one. However, they have only agreed on its shot of becoming a tropical cyclone, but on the future track, there is still uncertainty.

[dexterlabio]

The ECMWF trend continues, in a disturbing way.

The latest run has initialized 90W already and develops it slowly until just offshore N Luzon where it seems to start intensifying. Once in S China Sea, wow, super typhoon...

That's 6 runs in a row it's developed 90W aggressively. An interesting few days ahead indeed!

In SCS:


Near Php:

That's scary one in the SCS. It's good for the Philippines because it won't be such a monster when it nears the island...only if that trend verifies...

[dexterlabio]

Is this for real? I didn't expect a TCFA.

WTPN21 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 143.1E TO 14.4N 138.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 120830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 142.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
142.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 120452Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE INCREASED CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND CURVED INFLOW WRAPPING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AT 12/06Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC REPORTED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. A 120028Z
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH WEST/SOUTH-WESTERLIES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND STRONGER EAST/NORTH-EASTERLIES
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIVERGENT
REGION OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE
NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A POSITIVE EFFECT ON THE SYSTEMS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130900Z.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Near Guam so I guess they've got a lot of ship data etc and gone for the TCFA. I wouldn't be surprised to see a stronger storm into the Philippines given the history of typhoons approaching Luzon at this time of year. SSTs are well above average near Luzon and in the S China Sea and ECMWF suggests shear will become favourable!

I have to say I wasn't expecting a TCFA so soon!

[KWT]

Very interesting and the formation chance is good as well...The ECM looks very disturbing indeed and suggests a big system which we could be tracking for the next 12-14 days!

[dexterlabio]

TPPN11 PGTW 121222

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SW OF GUAM)

B. 12/1130Z

C. 11.4N

D. 143.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPPED A .30 ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF A 2.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/0818Z 11.8N 143.2E SSMS
12/0928Z 11.1N 142.9E SSMS


GATES

[RobWESTPACWX]

Near Guam so I guess they've got a lot of ship data etc and gone for the TCFA. I wouldn't be surprised to see a stronger storm into the Philippines given the history of typhoons approaching Luzon at this time of year. SSTs are well above average near Luzon and in the S China Sea and ECMWF suggests shear will become favourable!

I have to say I wasn't expecting a TCFA so soon!

Usually a ton of Naval ships their pushin out obs, but the there is a few civilian ones there as well (below) The one to the SW of guam is a good one showing a 19kt SW wind.

[KWT]

I don't think there is a closed LLC but the SW wind ob sure does at least hint at the system having quite a sharp trough.

[RobWESTPACWX]

In a few hours we should get a new ascat pass, that should help. For the time being here is the last one, not quite closed yet.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Congrats as well on MOM there KWT.