ATL: PAULA - Advisories

[supercane]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 130835
TCMAT3
HURRICANE PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
0900 UTC WED OCT 13 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 86.0W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 86.0W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 86.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.5N 85.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.3N 85.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 23.0N 83.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.2N 82.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.9N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 86.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT33 KNHC 130851
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...STILL PACKING 100 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 86.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY THIS
AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA
SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR OR
OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MEXICAN COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. A STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

000
WTNT43 KNHC 130857
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
PAULA THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WERE 96 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO
ABOUT AN 86-KT SURFACE WIND. THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE WINDS
OBSERVED WERE 81-82 KT. BASED ON THE RECON INFORMATION...ALONG WITH
THE FACT THAT CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF PAULA HAVE BEEN COOLING
DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 85
KT. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN BY 3 MB SINCE
YESTERDAY...THE CYCLONE IS NOW ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A FIELD OF
HIGHER ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES...WHICH HAS KEPT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT NEARLY CONSTANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/8. FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...
PAULA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHEAST
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BY 36 HOURS...PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN
EASTWARD AS THE HURRICANE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...BUT DIFFER IN THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE EASTWARD TURN. THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD...DUE IN LARGE PART TO NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE HWRF MODEL.
BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BRING PAULA JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS...WHEREAS THE GFS-ENSEMBLE MEAN AND BAM
DEEP MODELS BRING PAULA ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE LATTER
MODEL SCENARIOS SEEM UNREASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MODERATE
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THAT MODEL AND NEAR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA THROUGH 48 HOURS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERLY
FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 23N LATITUDE AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT PAULA MAY WEAKEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED AND BE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

PAULA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY NOW THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO NEAR 25 KT AND RECON INDICATED THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY
SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PAULA DUE TO
VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IF PAULA
INTERACTS WITH LAND SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN MORE RAPID
WEAKENING WOULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXTREMELY SMALL SIZE
OF THE WIND FIELD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND
SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 20.7N 86.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 21.5N 85.8W 80 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 22.3N 85.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 23.0N 83.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 23.2N 82.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 22.9N 80.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 17/0600Z 22.0N 79.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
FONT13 KNHC 130835
PWSAT3
HURRICANE PAULA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
0900 UTC WED OCT 13 2010

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 6 10 14 NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 9 25 24 18 NA
TROPICAL STORM 4 45 66 58 50 51 NA
HURRICANE 96 54 24 12 16 18 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 76 45 20 11 13 14 NA
HUR CAT 2 17 7 3 1 3 3 NA
HUR CAT 3 4 1 1 X 1 1 NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 80KT 70KT 60KT 50KT 35KT 30KT NA


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) X(13)

MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 11(22) 6(28) X(28)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

KEY WEST FL 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 7(17) 11(28) 6(34) X(34)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13)

FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)

VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

MERIDA MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

COZUMEL MX 34 6 4(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) X(15)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34 59 32(91) 2(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 8 51(59) 5(64) X(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 1 31(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)

HAVANA 34 2 5( 7) 27(34) 14(48) 8(56) 3(59) X(59)
HAVANA 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

ISLE OF PINES 34 3 4( 7) 18(25) 8(33) 7(40) 3(43) X(43)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

CIENFUEGOS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 16(28) 6(34) X(34)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) X(17)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8)

GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 6(13) 5(18) X(18)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10)

KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)

LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

131132
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
700 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

...SMALL BUT STRONG HURRICANE PAULA MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF CANCUN MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

THE WARNINGS FOR YUCATAN MEXICO WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ON THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY...AND BE NEAR
OR OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD AFFECT THE MEXICAN COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. A STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 131445
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

...PAULA EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD WESTERN CUBA SOON...EYE CLEARLY
SEEN ON CANCUN AND WESTERN CUBAN RADARS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HAS REPLACED IT WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...-
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...BUT THE HURRICANE
SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA
BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT.

PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT A SMALL PORTION
OF NORTHEAST YUCATAN WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN
CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

PAULA IS A SMALLER THAN USUAL HURRICANE AND THE EYE HAS BEEN TRACKED
ALL MORNING WITH BOTH WESTERN CUBA AND CANCUN RADARS. THE
HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS AN EXCELLENT PRESENTATION WITH A
CLOSED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION DEFINING THE EYEWALL. VISIBLE IMAGES
SHOW A HINT OF AN EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE
PREVIOUS WIND MEASUREMENTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER A LITTLE MORE
THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS. PAULA IS ALREADY REACHING
THE AREA OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...AND THE FACT THAT THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD
RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.

SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THAT PAULA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
OR 005 DEGREES AT ABOUT 4 TO 5 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS
ABOUT TO RECURVE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WE ARE
CONFIDENT THAT THE TURN WILL OCCUR SOON...BUT LESS CONFIDENT IN HOW
SHARP IT WILL BE. SOME RELIABLE MODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
EAST ACROSS CUBA AND OTHERS SHOW A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SHARP TURN TO THE EAST OVER OR
VERY NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA UNTIL DISSIPATION IN FOUR
DAYS...OR EARLIER.

GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 21.3N 85.8W 85 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 22.0N 85.5W 80 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 22.6N 84.8W 70 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 23.1N 83.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 23.0N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 16/1200Z 22.5N 80.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 17/1200Z 22.1N 79.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
100 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

...PAULA HESITATES...SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD WESTERN CUBA SOON...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 85.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...-
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST. PAULA HAS
MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...LATER TODAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA WILL BE NEAR OR OVER
WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT PAULA MIGHT HAVE WEAKENED A
LITTLE. HOWEVER...THE PLANE HAS NOT CHECKED THE ENTIRE HURRICANE
YET. NEVERTHELESS...PAULA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON.

PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT A SMALL PORTION
OF NORTHEAST YUCATAN WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN
CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 132042
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

A HURRICANE IS CROSSING BETWEEN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND EASTERN
YUCATAN...BUT WITHOUT MODERN TECHNOLOGY NO ONE WOULD KNOW IT WAS
THERE.

HAVING SAID THAT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW
THAT PAULA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. THE SHEAR DISRUPTED THE CLOUD
PATTERN AND THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS ARE BECOMING GRADUALLY
DETACHED. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER...AND A SMALL 8 N MI EYE AS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND AIRCRAFT DATA STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR...AND
THE EFFECT OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CUBA...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER CUBA IN ABOUT THREE
DAYS...POSSIBLY SOONER.

PAULA MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT NOW IT APPEARS TO
BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 025 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.
THE HURRICANE ALREADY RECURVED AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STEER PAULA ON
A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
SINCE THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS LARGE. IN GENERAL...MODELS
MAINTAIN THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MOVING EASTWARD AND KEEP A WEAK
REMNANT LOW MEANDERING NEAR CUBA. BY THEN...PAULA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 21.7N 85.6W 75 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 22.1N 85.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 22.7N 84.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 23.0N 82.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 16/1800Z 22.5N 79.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 132343
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
700 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

...SMALL PAULA INCHING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 85.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CUIDAD DE LA HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA
WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY
EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

WTNT43 KNHC 140237
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PAULA HAS GRADUALLY DETERIORATED THIS
EVENING...THE EYE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY WELL INTACT IN CUBAN RADAR
IMAGERY. A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT. THE NEXT
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH PAULA AROUND 0900 UTC.

PAULA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...PRIMARILY
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR THAT IS ADVECTING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...THE
EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA WILL LIKELY HASTEN THE
DEMISE OF THE SMALL HURRICANE. PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST-NORTHEAST...THEN EAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IF THE HURRICANE WEAKENS FASTER THAN PREDICTED
BELOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS FAVORED BY THE UKMET...GFS...AND
ECMWF MODELS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED TOWARD THAT
SCENARIO...BUT LIES NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 21.9N 85.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 22.3N 84.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 22.7N 83.6W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 15/1200Z 22.8N 82.1W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/0000Z 22.5N 80.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 79.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[supercane]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 140550
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
100 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

...EYE OF PAULA NEARING WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...
PAULA WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
FORECAST BY LATER TODAY. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[supercane]

00
WTNT33 KNHC 140857
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS PAULA A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 84.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...60 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...
PAULA WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
CENTER MOVES OVER CUBA AND ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

PAULA REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

00
WTNT23 KNHC 140855
TCMAT3
HURRICANE PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
0900 UTC THU OCT 14 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 84.9W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 84.9W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.6N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.9N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.9N 81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.3N 80.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.5N 79.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 84.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT43 KNHC 140859
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING AS THE HURRICANE IS ENCOUNTERING 30 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA
SHOWS THAT THE EYE AND EYEWALL ARE STILL INTACT FOR NOW. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 999 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 72
KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT.

A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
TRYING TO STEER PAULA IN A GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
HOWEVER...A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS BLOCKING
THIS MOVEMENT WITH THE RESULT BEING A SLOW INITIAL MOTION OF 050/4.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
FLOW TO INCREASE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE LOW LEVELS
NORTH AND WEST OF PAULA. THIS EVOLUTION IS LIKELY TO CAUSE PAULA
TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD
AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWESTWARD. WHILE THE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS
DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST...WHILE THE
GFDL IS THE FARTHEST EAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE
PAULA TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND TO A REMNANT LOW
BY 48 HR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ONCE IT SHEARS APART.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 22.3N 84.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 22.6N 84.0W 60 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 15/0600Z 22.9N 82.5W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 15/1800Z 22.9N 81.1W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/0600Z 22.3N 80.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 17/0600Z 21.5N 79.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
FONT13 KNHC 140857
PWSAT3
HURRICANE PAULA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
0900 UTC THU OCT 14 2010

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 7 11 37 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 1 7 19 13 36 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 76 48 36 29 25 NA NA
HURRICANE 23 44 39 47 3 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 22 36 30 33 3 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 1 6 7 10 X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X 2 2 4 X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60KT 45KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA NA


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

MIAMI FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

MARATHON FL 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) 9(29) 7(36) X(36) X(36)
MARATHON FL 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

KEY WEST FL 34 1 10(11) 15(26) 7(33) 7(40) X(40) X(40)
KEY WEST FL 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

FT MYERS FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)

VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

HAVANA 34 4 64(68) 10(78) 4(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83)
HAVANA 50 X 28(28) 11(39) 2(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42)
HAVANA 64 X 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)

ISLE OF PINES 34 2 22(24) 6(30) 5(35) 4(39) X(39) X(39)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CIENFUEGOS 34 1 6( 7) 23(30) 18(48) 7(55) X(55) X(55)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 13(27) X(27) X(27)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 141139
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
700 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

...PAULA HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 84.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM...W OF PUERTO ESPERANZA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...
PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OR OVER WESTERN
CUBA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. PAULA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY.

PAULA REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM. THE WEATHER
STATION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A 60
MPH...97 KM/HR WIND GUST.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA TODAY. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[x-y-no]

WTNT33 KNHC 141436
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...PAULA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM HUGS THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 84.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL
CONTINUE TO HUG THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA OR MOVE INLAND OVER
CUBA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA TODAY PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH COAST OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

_________________________________________________________

WTNT23 KNHC 141435
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1500 UTC THU OCT 14 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 84.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 84.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 84.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.1N 83.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.5N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N 80.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.0N 80.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 84.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

_________________________________________________________


WTNT43 KNHC 141437
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN REPORTING HOURLY FIXES AND PLENTY OF
WIND OBSERVATIONS. THE CENTER OF PAULA IS STILL UNDER THE
CONVECTION AND CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON LA BAJADA RADAR LOCATED IN
WESTERN CUBA. BASED ON SFMR DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED GENEROUSLY TO 60 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS NOT
COMPLETELY SHEARED YET...BUT WITH THE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE UNFAVORABLE EFFECT OF THE CUBAN TERRAIN AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THIS WEAKENING COULD
OCCUR FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PAULA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070 DEGREES AT 5
KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN CUBA. AS
PAULA WEAKENS FURTHER...AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS WILL BE FORCED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHWARD OVER CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN
BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY
ALL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS...BUT BY THEN PAULA IS FORECAST TO
JUST BE A REMNANT LOW.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 22.8N 84.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 23.1N 83.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 23.0N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/0000Z 22.5N 80.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/1200Z 22.0N 80.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 17/1200Z 21.0N 80.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 141437
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN REPORTING HOURLY FIXES AND PLENTY OF
WIND OBSERVATIONS. THE CENTER OF PAULA IS STILL UNDER THE
CONVECTION AND CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON LA BAJADA RADAR LOCATED IN
WESTERN CUBA. BASED ON SFMR DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED GENEROUSLY TO 60 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS NOT
COMPLETELY SHEARED YET...BUT WITH THE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE UNFAVORABLE EFFECT OF THE CUBAN TERRAIN AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THIS WEAKENING COULD
OCCUR FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PAULA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070 DEGREES AT 5
KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN CUBA. AS
PAULA WEAKENS FURTHER...AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS WILL BE FORCED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHWARD OVER CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN
BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY
ALL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS...BUT BY THEN PAULA IS FORECAST TO
JUST BE A REMNANT LOW.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 22.8N 84.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 23.1N 83.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 23.0N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/0000Z 22.5N 80.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/1200Z 22.0N 80.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 17/1200Z 21.0N 80.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 142344
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
800 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...PAULA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA...WIND GUST
TO 54 MPH REPORTED IN HAVANA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 82.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF VERADERO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD
DE LA HABANA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA
WAS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST. PAULA PASSED OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
HAVANA CUBA THIS EVENING AROUND 6 PM EDT...2200 UTC. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF
41 MPH...67 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED
IN HAVANA DURING THE PAST HOUR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 150239
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...PAULA SKIRTING THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA NEAR VERADERO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 81.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF VERADERO CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WNW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...
95 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD EASTWARD NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
CUBA. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE
THAT PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE CENTER IS NO LONGER WELL
DEFINED AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED. THE REMNANT
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN
ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PAULA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 22.8N 79.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 16/0000Z 22.5N 78.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA