WPAC: CHABA - Severe Tropical Storm

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ya that seems really logical, they were seeing heavy rain showers at the time, something instrumental could have occurred as well.

[StormingB81]

5 am here just woke up..man things keep changing..Like I was saying it was hinting at more west and west still looks like it is doing that..gonna be a logn day and night of typhoon watching and getting things prepared

[euro6208]

typhoon chaba strengthens to 90 knots and forecast to peak at category 4!

[StormingB81]

Euro you beat me to it....WOW!!! What a night makes..Okinawa we maybe in for a long day tomorrow!

[euro6208]

wow! just 13 minutes ago, chaba showed a faint eye now it has a clear well defined eye! it's rapidly strengthening! this already looks like a category 4. i was right days ago that this will strengthen to a category 4 maybe 5?

90 knots is seriously underestimated.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 OCT 2010 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 20:32:48 N Lon : 127:52:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 971.1mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -5.9C Cloud Region Temp : -74.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[KWT]

Wow a 6.5 raw number, if those numbers continue for any length of time then this system offically will race up.

Certainly is looking more impressive, now upto 90kts and the track really isn't that far away from the chain of Islands!

[phwxenthusiast]

man, how i wish they extended that ITOP mission.. we have another impressive system here that they can study...

[StormingB81]

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A NIGHT MAKES!!!

[Infdidoll]

A very long expletive just came out of my mouth...I was ready for a Cat 1, maybe a 2, now I'm going to go poo my pants. And Kadena's site still says TCOR 4.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[supercane]

TPPN10 PGTW 270028
A. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA)
B. 26/2330Z
C. 20.7N
D. 128.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. 10NM RAGGED DG EYE WITH LG
SURR RING YIELDS A DT OF A 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/2029Z 20.6N 127.4E SSMI
26/2119Z 20.4N 127.7E SSMS
GATES



373
TCNA21 RJTD 270000
CCAA 27000 47644 CHABA(1014) 18207 11279 12234 250// 90203=

[Chacor]

JMA 00z is up to 75kt, 955 hPa. New peak fcst 85kt, 940 hPa in 24h.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1014 CHABA (1014)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 20.7N 127.9E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 23.3N 127.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 290000UTC 24.8N 128.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 300000UTC 29.1N 130.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =




WTKO20 RKSL 270000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11
NAME TY 1014 CHABA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 270000UTC 20.7N 127.9E
MOVEMENT NNE 3KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 280000UTC 22.8N 127.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 290000UTC 25.4N 128.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 78KT
72HR
POSITION 300000UTC 28.8N 130.5E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 74KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

WTPQ20 BABJ 270000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY CHABA 1014 (1014) INITIAL TIME 270000 UTC
00HR 20.9N 127.9E 960HPA 40M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR N 10KM/H
P+24HR 23.2N 127.6E 955HPA 42M/S
P+48HR 25.6N 128.5E 945HPA 45M/S
P+72HR 29.0N 130.6E 935HPA 52M/S
P+96HR 35.6N 137.3E 975HPA 30M/S
P+120HR 42.5N 149.7E 996HPA 18M/S=

[Infdidoll]

I guess Kadena isn't even bothering with their website anymore? They've gone to Facebook, though:

http://www.facebook.com/KadenaAirBase

[Infdidoll]

Wow...is this storm actually being intensified by those gradient winds? I'd thought they would do just the opposite and possibly weaken the storm...but the satellite imagery is really interesting and it's only getting stronger. Would love to hear a pro met's opinion. Yesterday those winds were very strong here...today, they aren't quite as strong because it seems like Chaba's outer rain bands are blocking direct force winds, but it looks like they are being integrated into those feeder bands, instead of hitting us directly, and feeding directly into Chaba.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops ... color.html

You can really see it on the vis: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamvs.html

Is this observation correct at all...and if so, why is it not weakening the storm feeding cooler air into it? I'm curious!

[RobWESTPACWX]

A very long expletive just came out of my mouth...I was ready for a Cat 1, maybe a 2, now I'm going to go poo my pants. And Kadena's site still says TCOR 4.

LOL, nice... marines and your salty talk.

Anyhow Yoko seems to be on top of updating their COR conditions.

http://163.251.101.54/public/Home.aspx? ... rue&site=1

[RobWESTPACWX]

Those gradient winds may be increased even more so as the tropical nears.

Check out this ob, I'm fairly confident this is correct. A 51kt sustained wind far away from the Core Near Taiwan

[Infdidoll]

You'd be cursing, too, if you had to move a wooden picnic table into your house by yourself. LOL