WTPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 136.5E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.2N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 17.3N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.6N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.1N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.2N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.0N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.3N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 136.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION
SHEARED 80NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH WAS
BASED ON AN UNORGANIZED LLCC DEPICTED IN A 221723Z AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE
INDUCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. TD 16W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU
48, AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR
AND CAUSE TD 16W TO TRACK POLEWARD. AS THE TUTT CELL CONTINUES TO
MOVE WESTWARD AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE CONSEQUENTLY
RELAX, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO CONSISTENTLY INTENSIFY.
ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
INCREASE BY TAU 72 AND INCREASE THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. THERE IS
SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH NOGAPS, GFS, AND ECMWF TRACKING THE SYSTEM
MORE POLEWARD DUE TO A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE GFDN AND JGSM
MODELS CONTINUE TRACKING TD 16W WESTWARD ALONG A STRONGER STR. THIS
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS TRACKING MORE POLEWARD
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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