WPAC: CHABA - Severe Tropical Storm

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Infdidoll
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 666
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:39 pm
Location: Temecula, CA

#301 Postby Infdidoll » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:25 pm

Gusts of over 60 mph being felt now.
0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5538
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#302 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:33 pm

TCCOR-1Caution has been declared
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#303 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:42 pm

Image

Latest - very impressive
0 likes   

User avatar
Infdidoll
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 666
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:39 pm
Location: Temecula, CA

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#304 Postby Infdidoll » Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:47 pm

Weather Underground just upgraded this to a Category 4?
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2845
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#305 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:15 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 24.2N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.6N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.2N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 29.4N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 31.9N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 37.1N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 42.4N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 24.5N 128.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z
AND 290300Z.//


WDPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE COMPLETING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE, TY CHABA HAS MANAGED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN
THE LAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
ENLARGED, SYMMETRIC 40 NM EYE. INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE
PGTW FIX AND KADENA RADAR FIX. PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES
ARE INDICATING INTENSITIES BETWEEN 102 TO 127 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS
INTENSIFIED DUE TO DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST. TY 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND CONTINUE TO ROUND
THE RIDGE AXIS. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM SHOULD START
WEAKENING WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST, AND DECREASING OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT. AROUND TAU 24, TY CHABA SHOULD START TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. BY TAU 48, TY 16W SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW,
WHCIH IS EVIDENT IN THE 500MB HEIGHT MODEL FIELDS.
C. AFTER TAU 48, TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER
THIS FORECAST IS JUST SOUTH AND AHEAD OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE TENDENCY OF THE CONSENSUS TO BE SLOW IN A RECURVATURE
SCENARIO.//
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2845
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#306 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:23 pm

Image

TXPN26 KNES 280303
SIMWIR
A. 16W (CHABA)
B. 28/0230Z
C. 24.4N
D. 128.8E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5(PLUS)/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT=5.5 BASED ON LG RING WITH WMG EYE. PT=6.0. MET=5.5. FT
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
27/2105Z 23.7N 128.4E SSMIS
...SCHWARTZ
=

TPPN10 PGTW 280320
A. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA)
B. 28/0230Z
C. 24.7N
D. 128.8E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. EYE DIAMETER APPROX 40 NM.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/2213Z 24.0N 128.6E AMSU
27/2215Z 24.0N 128.5E SSMS
UEHARA

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Infdidoll
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 666
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:39 pm
Location: Temecula, CA

#307 Postby Infdidoll » Wed Oct 27, 2010 11:11 pm

Wind is blowing so hard here that water has been blown through the seals on my sliding glass door and is now flooding my living room. :(
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2845
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#308 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 27, 2010 11:16 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1014 CHABA (1014)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 24.5N 128.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 290300UTC 27.2N 130.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 300000UTC 30.0N 133.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 310000UTC 34.3N 138.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Hang in there, Infdidoll and Storming. Peak gusts were 51kt last hour and appear to be falling (although sustained winds still around 35kt). Latest METAR:
METAR text: RODN 280412Z AUTO 36034G46KT 2000 +RA BR BKN012 BKN019 OVC028 21/20 A2954 RMK AO2 PK WND 35048/0357 SLP006
Conditions at: RODN (KADENA (USAFB-NA, JP) observed 0412 UTC 28 October 2010
Temperature: 21.0°C (70°F)
Dewpoint: 20.0°C (68°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.54 inches Hg (1000.4 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1000.6 mb]
Winds: from the N (360 degrees) at 39 MPH (34 knots; 17.7 m/s)
gusting to 53 MPH (46 knots; 23.9 m/s)
Visibility: 1.24 miles (2.00 km)
Ceiling: 1200 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1200 feet AGL
broken clouds at 1900 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 2800 feet AGL
Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#309 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 27, 2010 11:22 pm

Image

Latest
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2845
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#310 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 27, 2010 11:52 pm

Latest radar:
Image

METAR text: RODN 280441Z AUTO 01036G51KT 2800 +RA BR SCT012 BKN019 OVC027 20/19 A2953 RMK AO2 PK WND 02051/0440 CIG 010 RWY23 SLP000
Conditions at: RODN (KADENA (USAFB-NA, JP) observed 0441 UTC 28 October 2010
Temperature: 20.0°C (68°F)
Dewpoint: 19.0°C (66°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.53 inches Hg (1000.1 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1000.0 mb]
Winds: from the N (10 degrees) at 41 MPH (36 knots; 18.7 m/s)
gusting to 59 MPH (51 knots; 26.5 m/s)
Visibility: 1.74 miles (2.80 km)
Ceiling: 1900 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1200 feet AGL
broken clouds at 1900 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 2700 feet AGL
Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)

Latest ASCAT:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 28275
Age: 66
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
Contact:

Re:

#311 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:12 am

Infdidoll wrote:Wind is blowing so hard here that water has been blown through the seals on my sliding glass door and is now flooding my living room. :(

I hope you have lots of towels!!! Is there somewhere else you can go till this is over?
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5538
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#312 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:20 am

The good news of this is it is going more NE now and the majority of the heave winds will stay off shore here
0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5538
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#313 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:20 am

Latest spot from JMA shows an east movement.....means less winds unless it jolts back to the west
0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5538
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#314 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:38 am

Okinawa is now under TCCOR-1E
0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5538
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#315 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 1:27 am

SUPRISE...SUPRISE....It gets close to Okinawa and turns...lol Looks liek ti wont be to bad after all..however there is time for it to turn and wobble back so I wont let my gaurd down yet


Strongest winds so far 51 MPH with 66 MPOH winds gusts!
0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5538
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#316 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 1:48 am

just had a wing gust of 70mph!
0 likes   

giringgiting
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2010 7:20 am

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#317 Postby giringgiting » Thu Oct 28, 2010 2:09 am

Such a huge eye right there, could easily fit one of our scenic islands - Bohol.

Good thing that the forecast tracks are swaying east, could be good news for you soon and even for Tokyo over the weekend. Stay safe through the night though, Storming and Infdidoll and other Okinawans.
0 likes   

User avatar
Infdidoll
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 666
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:39 pm
Location: Temecula, CA

Re: Re:

#318 Postby Infdidoll » Thu Oct 28, 2010 2:25 am

vbhoutex wrote:
Infdidoll wrote:Wind is blowing so hard here that water has been blown through the seals on my sliding glass door and is now flooding my living room. :(

I hope you have lots of towels!!! Is there somewhere else you can go till this is over?


Thank you, I have a ton...we still have power (though I heard a lot of people on the military bases don't right now). I threw some in the dryer, dried them out, and reused them. The wind is going to shift here in a bit as the storm passes and then it shouldn't be blowing sideways across the glass...it's going to be blowing directly at it.

I must be getting old...I put every towel we had down on the floor, said, "To heck with this" and went to take a nap, typhoon be d***ed.
0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5538
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#319 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Oct 28, 2010 4:41 am

RUmor is Kadena BX has sustained some damage..think it isnt true though people having fun...
0 likes   

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

#320 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:26 am

Good went East!!! I been out of the office and house all day really havent been able to check in on this. Glad to see the forecast held out. So how is everyone doing?
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests