WPAC: CHABA - Severe Tropical Storm

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Infdidoll
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Re:

#261 Postby Infdidoll » Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:13 pm

RobWESTPACWX wrote:Those gradient winds may be increased even more so as the tropical nears.

Check out this ob, I'm fairly confident this is correct. A 51kt sustained wind far away from the Core Near Taiwan


Image


That really illustrates the observation! Notice how much the winds have calmed down nearer to Okinawa? It's like they're going around the outer periphery of the storm and feeding into it. The winds are higher than average here, but we're not getting gusts quite like we were yesterday.
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#262 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:18 pm

You know I missed this too, I'm absolutely confident that ob is correct, I didnt see the 52kt right off the Ryuku islands there as well... WOW!!
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#263 Postby Infdidoll » Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:28 pm

This is pretty cool...on this site, I've gotten first-hand knowledge of the fujiwara effect, how coastal terrain can affect a track, the effects of gradient winds on a typhoon, etc....Learning something new every day. What's baffling me is why that cooler air isn't completely weakening the system. Those winds from the north were really strong, though. I wonder if they could sustain the momentum alone to keep this thing going, even as it is cooling it down.

I'd love to see the microwave of the cloud tops...where did you guys get those photos from with Megi?
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#264 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:33 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 128.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASI-STATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 128.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.8N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.0N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.8N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 26.9N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 32.5N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 38.5N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 43.0N 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 128.0E. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA),
CURRENTLY LOCATED 350 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN,
HAS BEEN QUASI-STAIONARY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
//

Infdidoll, a lot of the images people post are from NRL's Tropical Cyclone site at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
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#265 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:39 pm

Infidoll, it is funny you mention that, on the Prog reasoning last night JTWC had something similar in there. They said the amount of inflow from the equator was stronger than the cold surge though.
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#266 Postby Infdidoll » Tue Oct 26, 2010 10:05 pm

Gotcha, so the cool wind isn't really affecting it as much as I'd think when mixed with the warmer air. So interesting. I'm going to have to get going and get some prep done around the house before this thing hits, just in case.
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#267 Postby StormingB81 » Tue Oct 26, 2010 10:12 pm

Kadena Weather calling for winds up to 85 MPH
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#268 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Oct 26, 2010 10:51 pm

My thoughts today. Really thing those gradient winds will pick up this afternoon. Also looks like the storm has slowed, will be a night pass now.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oKaEV9aEo0[/youtube]
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#269 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 26, 2010 10:57 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 270300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1014 CHABA (1014)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 21.1N 127.9E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 280300UTC 23.5N 127.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 290000UTC 24.8N 128.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 300000UTC 29.1N 130.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), CURRENTLY LOCATED 375 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS SHOWN ERRATIC (NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY)
MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
SYSTEM DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. RECENT VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OVERSHOOTING
CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE TY CORE AND THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A 26/2228Z SSMIS
91H MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATING A DEFINITIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND 90 KNOTS FROM RJTD. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WELL-DEVELOPED OUTFLOW CHANNELS EXIST
ON ALL QUADRANTS OF THE STORM. CONTINENTAL POLAR (CP) AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM A RECENT COLD SURGE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL THUS FAR,
PRODUCING LITTLE IMPEDIMENT ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS LIKELY AN
EFFECT OF PARALLEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE RYUKUS RATHER THAN
PERPENDICULAR NORTHWESTERLIES. A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP DOES
SHOW ONE PULSE OF DRIER AIR MADE IT INTO THE SYSTEM CORE BUT WAS
QUICKLY ABSORBED. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WINDS ARE BACKING
AND INCREASING OVER THE RYUKUS INDICATING BOUNDARY LEVEL FLOW OF CP
AIR INTO THE STORM WILL SOON INCREASE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
MINIMAL SOUTH OF 28N, WHERE IT INCREASES RAPIDLY. A WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACTED TO DRIVE THE STORM
WESTWARD BETWEEN 26/06Z AND 26/18Z BUT HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY,
CREATING A ALLEY FOR THE STORM TO TURN POLEWARD. 3. FORECAST
REASONING.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 36 HAS BEEN ACCELERATED
SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON INDICATIONS THE STORM
WILL ACCELERATE AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION SOONER.
B. AS TYPHOON 16W TURNS POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE, IT WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE RYUKUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. LACK OF COUPLING
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SLOW AND GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH. INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
COMMENCE AS THE STORM APPROACHES 28N. IN THE SAME REGION, THERE WILL
BE A SHARP INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES INCREASE TO OVER 75 KNOTS NORTH OF 29N. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LEVEL WILL AFFECT A
SHARP EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND PRONOUNCED DECAY OF THE SYSTEM
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. TY 16W WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TRANSITION AND
BECOME A VIGOROUS BAROCLINIC LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY TAUS. THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH
TAU 72 STAYS JUST WEST AND JUST FASTER THAN CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 16W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BETWEEN THE JAPANESE
ALPS AND THE KANTO PLAIN AS A SEVERE GALE TO STORM FORCE LOW BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE WESTERN PACIFIC WELL SOUTH OF MISAWA, JAPAN.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT IN THE
LATER TAUS AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT. THE
FORECASTED SPEED IS FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS AT TAU 96 AND 120 IN
ANTICIPATION OF STEERING BY THE POLAR FRONT JET.//
NNNN

Image

TXPN26 KNES 270309
SIMWIR
A. 16W (CHABA)
B. 27/0230Z
C. 21.2N
D. 127.8E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT=5.5 BASED ON LG RING WITH BL EYE SURROUNDED BY
WH. PT=5.0. MET=5.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ
=
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#270 Postby Infdidoll » Wed Oct 27, 2010 12:11 am

Per Kadena Force Support: "We are in TCCOR-3. We anticipate going to TCCOR 2 at 2100 hrs (9 p.m.) tonight. 18 WG Safety just completed a check of all housing areas. Common issues are unsecured trampolines, patio furniture, and children's toys. Make sure to secure your items when you get off work tonight."
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#271 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Oct 27, 2010 6:10 am

For some reason I can't get the JTWC graphic posted.....

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... wp1610.gif

Image

Okinawa now in TCOR 2 as well.
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#272 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 27, 2010 7:48 am

Image

Latest
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#273 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 27, 2010 7:50 am

Nice symmetry in there. Small eye.

09z JTWC warning has Kadena at 63 nm at CPA, at 28/18z (3 am JST on Friday 29 Oct). JTWC forecast for 28/18z is 100 knots, storm-force wind radius of 65–70 nm. So Kadena will be in the storm-force wind field per JTWC.

Image
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#274 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 27, 2010 7:53 am

JMA's 12z warning is out. They've increased the winds to 80 knots and lowered the pressure to 950 hPa. New peak forecast is 90 kt, 945 hPa in 12–24 hours.

WTPQ21 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1014 CHABA (1014)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 22.4N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 25.1N 129.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 291200UTC 27.6N 131.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 301200UTC 32.4N 135.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#275 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Oct 27, 2010 7:57 am

My evening update all!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XS6-mC0xsDE[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#276 Postby Macrocane » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:07 am

Chaba looks very good this morning I would put the intensity at 115 kt, let's see what the JTWC says on the next warning.
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#277 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:33 am

Almost there. JTWC is up to 110 knots.
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#278 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:37 am

The winds have really picked up here on Okinawa 30mph here...gusting to almost 35
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Re:

#279 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:44 am

StormingB81 wrote:The winds have really picked up here on Okinawa 30mph here...gusting to almost 35



Those gradient winds already building in then.. Figured that would happen as the storm moves N. Still am really curios how that is going to effect this storm as it moves in farther N towards Honshu.

Its a NNE wind right?
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#280 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Oct 27, 2010 8:52 am

lol i dunno....but man pagasa has it coming right at us huh..so who is right ECMWF who has it slamming into us or jtwc who has it going right of us..how close will it be..answers will soon be answered
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