ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

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ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 16, 2010 7:11 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201010190031
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2010, DB, O, 2010101700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992010
AL, 99, 2010101606, , BEST, 0, 108N, 751W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010101612, , BEST, 0, 109N, 757W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010101618, , BEST, 0, 110N, 763W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010101700, , BEST, 0, 113N, 774W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 99, 2010101706, , BEST, 0, 117N, 784W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 99, 2010101712, , BEST, 0, 123N, 795W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 99, 2010101718, , BEST, 0, 128N, 804W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 99, 2010101800, , BEST, 0, 134N, 810W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 99, 2010101806, , BEST, 0, 138N, 815W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010101812, , BEST, 0, 141N, 819W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 99, 2010101818, , BEST, 0, 145N, 822W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 220, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 99, 2010101900, , BEST, 0, 150N, 826W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Thread at Talking tropics forum that discussed about the North of Panama area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109710&hilit=&start=0
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#2 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 16, 2010 7:14 pm

Well well, here we go, right now looks to head into central america
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3 Postby Macrocane » Sat Oct 16, 2010 7:15 pm

20% chance of development on the next 48 hours sounds about right as the models begin to develop the area in about 3 or 4 days.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4 Postby FireRat » Sat Oct 16, 2010 7:19 pm

Whoa and I was just mentioning it was too early to tell. Well still kinda early :wink:

We shall see what the invest wants to do in the next few days. How fast it spins up will determine its path. Central America doesn't always mean death for the storms, some skirt it.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#5 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sat Oct 16, 2010 7:25 pm

Any model runs for this yet?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#6 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 16, 2010 7:25 pm

Looks like it could be a slow top-down development.

Mostly stratiform precip firing during the day.

500mb PV at 11N 81W.

Sunrise at DMAX could fire off some shear induced MCS's and get the anti-cyclone to move south.




Image


Image


Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#7 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 16, 2010 10:41 pm

Something is playing with our minds this year. Another one with a big circulation perched to slide right into climatology as a monster storm that just misses. I see it as drifting west towards EPAC, but let's see what happens.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#8 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 16, 2010 11:10 pm

Sanibel wrote:Something is playing with our minds this year. Another one with a big circulation perched to slide right into climatology as a monster storm that just misses. I see it as drifting west towards EPAC, but let's see what happens.


It may very well do that, but it is still way too early to give up all hope that it won't do that. Of course, it could even end up not even forming into a TC as per the Euro.
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#9 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Oct 17, 2010 1:51 am

No changes at 2AM, still 20%
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#10 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Oct 17, 2010 6:59 am

8AM, no change, still 20%

Sat image looks pretty ragged too.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:11 am

12z Best Track

AL, 99, 2010101712, , BEST, 0, 115N, 782W, 20, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

More time over water with this new position.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#12 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:43 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:Any model runs for this yet?


See the models thread.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#13 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 17, 2010 9:51 am

Today's visible loop has that ever-drifting-west look, however the convection has consolidated better in the Gulf of Panama just north of Panama and tucked-in to Central America.

So, of course, we'll all be watching for it to take a track N, possibly through Central America.


I have a pet theory that when you get a cold front that compresses the tropical air into the southern Caribbean at this time of year it forces development by piling all the tropical "juice".
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#14 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 17, 2010 10:12 am

Looks like the global models build in a ridge across the nw Caribbean by day 7. Until then, a weakness will be present. So if this system organizes more quickly then expected, should drift northward or northwestward over the next several days and not move inland into central America. I believe the hwrf is showing this solution, then ridging pushes it back southward.
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#15 Postby KWT » Sun Oct 17, 2010 10:22 am

Yeah either way Gatorcane I think this will eventually pile itself into CA, its just how long that process takes...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#16 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Oct 17, 2010 11:46 am

IR floater now on 99L
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 17, 2010 11:49 am

If needed, a mission is planned for next Tuesday afternoon.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SUN 17 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-138

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR 13.5N AND 82.5W.

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#18 Postby KWT » Sun Oct 17, 2010 12:46 pm

Given where it is now recon may be needed since I suspect a small weak system may try and get going down there, maybe like Martha from 1969 but not quite so strong...but who knows...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#19 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 1:01 pm

wxman57 wrote:
wzrgirl1 wrote:Any model runs for this yet?


See the models thread.



Thanks I posted this right before the models thread came out.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 17, 2010 1:06 pm

2 PM TWO. No change.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED NEAR A BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH LAND IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

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