ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#801 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 23, 2010 9:20 pm

Macrocane wrote:This question may be a little dumb but I've seen many times people talking about the fat lady, what does it mean?


See here: http://www.wwwk.co.uk/culture/phrases/i ... -sings.htm

It is a common expression in sports reporting. Although there are earlier similar phrases, it is commonly attributed to writer/broadcaster Dan Cook; his original line was "The opera ain't over till the fat lady sings."

This occurred in April 1978, when he coined the phrase after the first basketball game between the San Antonio Spurs and the Washington Bullets (now the Washington Wizards) during the 1977-78 National Basketball Association playoffs, to illustrate that while the Spurs had won once, the series was not over yet.

The phrase has also been attributed to former major league manager Earl Weaver. However, it is now known that Cook did not coin the phrase; Fred R. Shapiro found and published an example in The Yale Book of Quotations which appeared in the Dallas Morning News on 10 March 1976:

Despite his obvious allegiance to the Red Raiders, Texas Tech sports information director Ralph Carpenter was the picture of professional objectivity when the Aggies rallied for a 72-72 tie late in the SWC tournament finals. "Hey, Ralph," said Bill Morgan, "this... is going to be a tight one after all." "Right," said Ralph. "The opera ain’t over until the fat lady sings."

In the same newspaper on 26 November 2006, Steve Blow followed up the discovery by contacting Bill Morgan about the incident: "Bill vividly remembers the comment and the uproar it caused throughout the press box. He always assumed it was coined on the spot. 'Oh, yeah, it was vintage Carpenter. He was one of the world’s funniest guys,' said Bill, a contender for that title himself."

A suggestion that the phrase is older is based on an old saying in the Southern United States stating that "Church ain't over until the fat lady sings". This form of the line was apparently well known in the South for years, appearing in a 28 page booklet in 1976 entitled Southern Words and Sayings.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#802 Postby Macrocane » Sat Oct 23, 2010 9:31 pm

Great info as always, thanks!

And about Richard it seems like 60 kt will be the intensity in this advisory, I believe that the eyewall will reform again tonight it won't be difficult for such a small system to complete it although it could easily lose it for the same reason.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#803 Postby maxx9512 » Sat Oct 23, 2010 9:33 pm

Now that was an explaination! :uarrow:
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#804 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 23, 2010 9:34 pm

...LITTLE RICHARD GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 84.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


Image
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#805 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:49 pm

Almost a hurricane now...looking alot better organized.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#806 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:55 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#807 Postby SETXWXLADY » Sat Oct 23, 2010 11:06 pm

Torgo wrote:
cycloneye wrote:..LITTLE RICHARD GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


I have to vehemently disagree. Little Richard hasn't been organized since at least the sixties.


Lol. So it wasn't just me. I guess the forecaster just couldn't resist. :lol:
Aside from the giggle though, I wish all in its path a safe weekend/week. And hopefully he won't intensify too much more.
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#808 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 23, 2010 11:26 pm

Image

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#809 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Oct 23, 2010 11:31 pm

I have the feeling Richard is really gunna try to wrap up in about 12 hours once he gets more separation from Honduras and the eyewall is more established.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#810 Postby Macrocane » Sat Oct 23, 2010 11:31 pm

Eyewall trying to develop again although the western half looks strangely flat.
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#811 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Oct 24, 2010 12:00 am

I am thinking very close to hurricane now....very impressive.
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#812 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Oct 24, 2010 1:14 am

Weatherfreak000 Posted: Sat Oct 23, 2010 10:49 pm Almost a hurricane now...looking alot better
organized.

Weatherfreak000 Posted: Sun Oct 24, 2010 12:00 am I am thinking very close to hurricane now....very impressive.


:roll:
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#813 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 6:38 am

Good morning.Just came here and found the lowest pressure of 990 mbs at first pass of this mornings mission.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#814 Postby O Town » Sun Oct 24, 2010 6:47 am

WeatherGuesser posted on Sun Oct 17, 2010 1:51 am :
No changes at 2AM, still 20%


WeatherGuesser posted on Sun Oct 17, 2010 6:59 am:
8AM, no change, still 20%

Sat image looks pretty ragged too.



:roll: :roll: :roll: :P :P :P


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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#815 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 7:08 am

Decoded first Vortex Data Message of this mornings mission.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 11:43Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 11:26:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°45'N 86°18'W (16.75N 86.3W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 135 miles (217 km) to the ESE (113°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,348m (4,423ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the E (90°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 148° at 66kts (From the SSE at ~ 76.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the E (81°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 990mb (29.23 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,536m (5,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the north (center has 50% or more, but less than 100%, of eyewall coverage)
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) in the east quadrant at 11:16:10Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Ragged thin wall cloud

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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#816 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 7:18 am

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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#817 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 7:58 am

Second decoded VDM.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 12:50Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 12:30:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°47'N 86°26'W (16.7833N 86.4333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 126 miles (203 km) to the ESE (113°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,352m (4,436ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the SE (138°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 227° at 50kts (From the SW at ~ 57.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the SE (139°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the east quadrant at 12:39:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the east quadrant at 12:39:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Ragged eye
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#818 Postby ronjon » Sun Oct 24, 2010 8:01 am

Looks like we'll have hurricane Richard by 11 am. Might be RI now that the core is established and its pulled far enough from land.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis-s.html
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#819 Postby Battlebrick » Sun Oct 24, 2010 8:01 am

Eye location per dropsonde:
Splash Location: 16.79N 86.44W
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#820 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 8:10 am

Two web cams from Belize.

Image

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