ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Bit of a center burst near 11.75N-81W

[Blown Away]

The 18z TVCN loops 99L offshore in the SW Caribbean. The NHC usually follows the TVCN consensus, so for now maybe 99L stays offshore?

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED NEAR A BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH LAND IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

[wxman57]

Development chances appear to be diminishing. Looking more like just a rain event for Nicaragua/Honduras and not a threat to the northern Caribbean, Florida, or the Bahamas.

[Tropics Guy]

99L looking good tonight, plenty of deep convection popping, probably a threat to NE Nicaragua with heavy rains......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

TG

[Typhoon_Willie]

Lets hope that it does not rain too much over Honduras and Nicarauga. The flooding that could take place in the mountainous areas can be life threatening.

[CourierPR]

System appears to me to be moving more northwest which might keep it over water and give it the opportunity to intensify.

[Florida1118]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...BUT HAVE INCREASED
NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH LAND
IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[DanKellFla]

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING
WITH LAND...AND DEVELOPMENT COULD BE INHIBITED FOR THAT REASON.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[cycloneye]

Already moving inland. 8 AM TWO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING
WITH LAND...AND DEVELOPMENT COULD BE INHIBITED FOR THAT REASON.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[SouthDadeFish]

AL, 99, 2010101812, , BEST, 0, 151N, 825W, 25, 1010, LO,

99L has been gaining quite a bit of latitude as of late. Might be able to just brush CA unless it gets pushed back SW.

[TheBurn]

[wxman57]

Pressures are relatively high in the western Caribbean. With the disturbance moving inland today, development chances are diminishing even further.

[latitude_20]

Looks like recon will fly in tomorrow.

[latitude_20]

You know, backing off the floater and watching the loops from a broader perspective, looks like this one might just have a chance.

[jconsor]

NHC 12z best track position is 15.1N 82.5W, which is supported by surface obs of WNW winds at Puerto Cabezas on the north coast of Nicaragua and Puerto Lempira on the NE coast of Honduras. However, the first few morning visible images suggest the center is a bit closer to the Honduras coast, near 15.5N 83.5W. The motion in the past 24 hours has been NW at around 5-7 kt. 99L would have to take a sharp left turn and move due west to move inland today.

Given the mid-level steering pattern with a weakness in the ridge over the NW Caribbean the next few days, I expect a continued drift to the NW through Wed, and then a turn to the W or WSW. I don't see 99L moving inland over the Yucatan until late Thu at the earliest.

NHC doesn't expect it to move inland either in the next day or so; on the contrary, they are tasking recon on Tue for 17.5N 83.5W, or about 150 miles north of the Honduras/Nicaragua coast.

99L may well not develop over the next few days (I'd give it only a 40% chance of development through Thu), but it won't be because it moves inland.

Pressures are relatively high in the western Caribbean. With the disturbance moving inland today, development chances are diminishing even further.

[wxman57]

Depends on how you define "moving inland". Much of the disturbance is already inland. The weak center is on the coast now, but it may move to just north of Honduras later today. That could increase its chances development. Actually, the convection north of Honduras near 16.3N/90W looks more impressive this morning. A 30-40% shot at development may not be too bad of an estimate, but I think we were all thinking 90-100% chance a few days ago.

[Sanibel]

Right up Paula's track. This one isn't as robust.


We might see some development of this from the present activity.


Perhaps a TS?

[srainhoutx]

One thing I will say, this is not headed W into the EPAC at this time. Let's see if there is some consolidation of convection as the day wears on.

[KWT]

Looking at the way its curling up I do think its got a decent shot at developing but probably not too strong, maybe a 40-45kts TS before moving inland.