ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#41 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 18, 2010 9:39 am

Not as consolidated as Paula but over warm waters where it might muster one last storm.


If those beefy bands flex towards the center we could be surprised...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#42 Postby MGC » Mon Oct 18, 2010 10:15 am

Yea, looks like Paula 2.....better organized this morning. Still looks like it will go into CA.....MGC
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#43 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Oct 18, 2010 10:36 am

Looks much bigger than Paula if anything does come from this.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#44 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 18, 2010 10:48 am

wxman57 wrote:Depends on how you define "moving inland". Much of the disturbance is already inland. The weak center is on the coast now, but it may move to just north of Honduras later today. That could increase its chances development. Actually, the convection north of Honduras near 16.3N/90W looks more impressive this morning. A 30-40% shot at development may not be too bad of an estimate, but I think we were all thinking 90-100% chance a few days ago.


57,
Yesterday, the 00Z models were initializing way down at ~10N, 81W and tracks were then going W to WNW into the EPAC. So, I'd say that compared to 36 hours ago, things are looking quite a bit more positive for development in the W. Caribbean vs. how they looked then.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#45 Postby latitude_20 » Mon Oct 18, 2010 10:51 am

Seems to be developing some circular organization. Visible shows what almost looks to me like a center about 100 miles east of Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#46 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 18, 2010 11:21 am

Plane for tommorow afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT MON 18 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-139

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 17.5N 83.5W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT
20/1200Z IF SYSTEM IS A THREAT.

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#47 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 18, 2010 12:05 pm

Image

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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#48 Postby wzrgirl1 » Mon Oct 18, 2010 12:13 pm

Quite an interesting look to it I might say. Hmm....
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#49 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 18, 2010 12:50 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS. A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...
AND DEVELOPMENT COULD BE INHIBITED FOR THAT REASON. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.


A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A
FEW SHOWERS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY...
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#50 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 18, 2010 12:54 pm

Storm should organize from the new center burst offshore from the Nicaragua/Honduras corner.


System obviously much more sheared from the east than Paula.


It's been cool up here for weeks now. If it does come in this direction I doubt conditions will support any intensity.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#51 Postby Aquawind » Mon Oct 18, 2010 1:01 pm

It's been cool up here for weeks now. If it does come in this direction I doubt conditions will support any intensity.



SSTs in the 70's and dropping so that sounds reasonable..

As usual the Yukatan and Cuba is another story..
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#52 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 18, 2010 1:22 pm

It does look better-organized this afternoon. May have a shot at developing north of Honduras. But with high pressure building across the SE U.S. it shouldn't move in that direction.
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#53 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 18, 2010 1:26 pm

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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#54 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 18, 2010 1:33 pm

18z Best Track

AL, 99, 2010101818, , BEST, 0, 157N, 832W, 25, 1010, LO
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#55 Postby latitude_20 » Mon Oct 18, 2010 2:07 pm

Um, is it me or is this thing looking like it's going to make it north of Honduras?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#56 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 18, 2010 2:08 pm

latitude_20 wrote:Um, is it me or is this thing looking like it's going to make it north of Honduras?


it's already almost north of honduras
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#57 Postby CourierPR » Mon Oct 18, 2010 2:12 pm

Sanibel wrote:Storm should organize from the new center burst offshore from the Nicaragua/Honduras corner.


System obviously much more sheared from the east than Paula.


It's been cool up here for weeks now. If it does come in this direction I doubt conditions will support any intensity.
According to AccuWeather, land interaction, not shear, is what has kept development in check.
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#58 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 18, 2010 2:13 pm

North or not, imo the building southeast ridge is going to prevent direct impacts to U.S. coast. Can't say the same for the Caribbean coast, IF it should form.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#59 Postby CourierPR » Mon Oct 18, 2010 2:24 pm

There is a cold front progged to be into the deep south on Wednesday. Might this have an affect on the future track of the system?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion

#60 Postby latitude_20 » Mon Oct 18, 2010 2:29 pm

TAFB seems to be buying in:

Image
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