ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

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#901 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 24, 2010 3:44 pm

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#902 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 24, 2010 3:47 pm

Thanks for that! Looks like they will miss the worst, then
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#903 Postby Aquawind » Sun Oct 24, 2010 3:50 pm

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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#904 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 3:53 pm

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 88.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#905 Postby jinftl » Sun Oct 24, 2010 4:00 pm

Quite a significant pressure drop from the prior advisory...down 7mb between 2pm edt and 5pm edt. If landfall wasn't imminent, the winds would have likely gone to cat 2 intensity....there is usally a lag between rapid pressure drops and the actual winds increasing due to the increased pressure gradient.

If this storm had another 12 hours over water, we could have been talking about another major hurricane. Thankfully, Richard is running out of time to intensify further.

From NHC Discussion:


BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
CENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE AND
BELIZE RADAR IMAGES...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

Sanibel wrote:First pass shows only category 1. 82Kts Flight Level - Estimated 67Kts surface.


Looks like Richard is the second storm of late in this area to show a Fist and not follow through with intensification.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#906 Postby Aquawind » Sun Oct 24, 2010 4:05 pm

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#907 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 24, 2010 4:28 pm

80 kt seems reasonable as Recon could not reach the RFQ, and winds supported 65-70 knots elsewhere in the storm. Might still reach Cat 2 before landfall though, but would need a clear radar or satellite signature or land data to support such.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#908 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 5:11 pm

Richard will not push the Atlantic towards the 150 ACE Hyperactive line,but the models are bullish on the S storm (Shary) in the Caribbean,and if that occurs,it will reach it without problems.
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#909 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 24, 2010 5:15 pm

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Latest_50kmpic.gif

Eye coming in, should be ashore within the next 30-60 minutes near Belize City.
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#910 Postby floridastorm88 » Sun Oct 24, 2010 5:27 pm

still alot ofmoisture down there even with Richard gettin out the way
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#911 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 24, 2010 5:32 pm

Belize board says Belize Coast Guard reported 92mph winds on Calabash Caye (One of those islands off Belize in the eye).
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#912 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 24, 2010 5:33 pm

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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#913 Postby Macrocane » Sun Oct 24, 2010 5:35 pm

Look at this image from some minutes ago, strong wind gusts of 90 km/h have been affecting that location (it won't change as it is a printed screen uploaded with imageshack):

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#914 Postby BZSTORM » Sun Oct 24, 2010 5:39 pm

Report on radio is that there is concern that some Belize city residents are not taking this seriously, there are definitely small board houses which will not take the winds. In the South on The Placencia peninsula (on BZ radar we are opp on coast to Independence) its been constant rain for 4 hours now occasionally heavy but not too bad, seas state is pretty calm ripples coming in from SE , not even white caps. wind barely 5kts. I am aprrox 65 miles as crow flies from BZ City
Belize city experiencing higher winds and Belize Met concurs approx. 1 hour for center to make landfall, as outer bands of eyewall starting to affect Belize City and coastline, branches coming down onto highway & a few trees & signs down. Someone from Dangriga just reported winds getting very strong & waves getting rough.
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#915 Postby BZSTORM » Sun Oct 24, 2010 5:45 pm

I'm having problems getting speed to stream Channel 5 News Live but this is the link for live footage http://edition.channel5belize.com/ click on the banner where is stays live streaming great Belize Television you need RealPlayer to view
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#916 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 24, 2010 6:03 pm

Based on that wind report (thinking the strongest winds may not have been measured) and the improving eye structure on radar, I would probably put the landfall intensity at 85 kt.
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Re:

#917 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 6:05 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Based on that wind report (thinking the strongest winds may not have been measured) and the improving eye structure on radar, I would probably put the landfall intensity at 85 kt.


Maybe they go up on intensity on the post season Tropical Cyclone report on Richard?
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Re: Re:

#918 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 24, 2010 6:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Based on that wind report (thinking the strongest winds may not have been measured) and the improving eye structure on radar, I would probably put the landfall intensity at 85 kt.


Maybe they go up on intensity on the post season Tropical Cyclone report on Richard?


Maybe, or at the 7 pm intermediate advisory they might as well.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#919 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Oct 24, 2010 6:14 pm

Richard looks impressive on radar. I think we could see Shary this week. As for how strong that would be, too early to tell.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#920 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 6:54 pm

About to make landfall.

HURRICANE RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
700 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...RICHARD ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 88.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

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