ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#921 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Oct 24, 2010 7:08 pm

Just a quick comparison. When Richard first formed, this was its forecast.

96HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 87.5W 55 KT

And right now (25/0000Z), it is at 17.2N 88.2W with 80 kt

That is only a 72 mile difference from four days out. The intensity is off, true, but they nailed the track from the beginning. For comparison, the 12 hour forecast error in 1995 was 60 miles.
Last edited by Hurricanehink on Sun Oct 24, 2010 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#922 Postby Aquawind » Sun Oct 24, 2010 7:08 pm

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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#923 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 8:08 pm

Made landfall

HURRICANE RICHARD TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
805 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...RICHARD MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE...

RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICHARD
MADE LANDFALL AROUND 745 PM CDT...0045 UTC...ALONG THE COAST OF
BELIZE ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 90
MPH...150 KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 745 PM CDT...0045 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 88.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

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#924 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 24, 2010 8:14 pm

Caye Caulker wx station is reporting winds of 44.1 mph with gusts up to 57.6 mph. 2.01 inches of rain has fallen so far today.
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#925 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 24, 2010 8:16 pm

Looking at the radar, I believe it strengthened some more after Recon left. I personally think it was a Cat 2 at landfall.
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#926 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 24, 2010 8:18 pm

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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#927 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Sun Oct 24, 2010 8:30 pm

it managed to poke a pinhole eye before it's quick death over land
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#928 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 24, 2010 8:31 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:Just a quick comparison. When Richard first formed, this was its forecast.

96HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 87.5W 55 KT

And right now (25/0000Z), it is at 17.2N 88.2W with 80 kt

That is only a 72 mile difference from four days out. The intensity is off, true, but they nailed the track from the beginning. For comparison, the 12 hour forecast error in 1995 was 60 miles.


Not bad for the NHC, folks just don't understand how good the NHC really is!
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#929 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 24, 2010 8:45 pm

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#930 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 24, 2010 8:54 pm

If he was still over water, I would forecast that he was going to rapidly strengthen into a Cat 3 or 4, but he is moving inland thankfully, before he had a chance to develop into a really bad monster.
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#931 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 24, 2010 8:59 pm

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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#932 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Oct 24, 2010 9:01 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Hurricanehink wrote:Just a quick comparison. When Richard first formed, this was its forecast.

96HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 87.5W 55 KT

And right now (25/0000Z), it is at 17.2N 88.2W with 80 kt

That is only a 72 mile difference from four days out. The intensity is off, true, but they nailed the track from the beginning. For comparison, the 12 hour forecast error in 1995 was 60 miles.


Not bad for the NHC, folks just don't understand how good the NHC really is!

This year it has become very obvious that trackwise NHC really has it down good. I think they have done a great job this year. Hopefully new advances will continue the improvements, especially in intensity forecasting.
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Re:

#933 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Oct 24, 2010 9:03 pm

brunota2003 wrote:If he was still over water, I would forecast that he was going to rapidly strengthen into a Cat 3 or 4, but he is moving inland thankfully, before he had a chance to develop into a really bad monster.


Absolutely, it could have easily become a major hurricane. Unfortunately, it's more than strong enough to cause a lot of damage even as a 90 mph Cat 1. The flooding will be the biggest problem with this system.
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Re: Re:

#934 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 24, 2010 9:11 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:If he was still over water, I would forecast that he was going to rapidly strengthen into a Cat 3 or 4, but he is moving inland thankfully, before he had a chance to develop into a really bad monster.


Absolutely, it could have easily become a major hurricane. Unfortunately, it's more than strong enough to cause a lot of damage even as a 90 mph Cat 1. The flooding will be the biggest problem with this system.

Indeed, it still will be bad, and my thoughts and prayers go out to those affected.

I agree the NHC has done very well overall with tracking these systems. I would like to see improvements in intensity forecasting now, as well, however. Some systems they do well on, but others (like the ones that RI'd), they blew the forecast by 2 or 3 categories.
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Re: Re:

#935 Postby Florida1118 » Sun Oct 24, 2010 9:20 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
hurricaneCW wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:If he was still over water, I would forecast that he was going to rapidly strengthen into a Cat 3 or 4, but he is moving inland thankfully, before he had a chance to develop into a really bad monster.


Absolutely, it could have easily become a major hurricane. Unfortunately, it's more than strong enough to cause a lot of damage even as a 90 mph Cat 1. The flooding will be the biggest problem with this system.

Indeed, it still will be bad, and my thoughts and prayers go out to those affected.

I agree the NHC has done very well overall with tracking these systems. I would like to see improvements in intensity forecasting now, as well, however. Some systems they do well on, but others (like the ones that RI'd), they blew the forecast by 2 or 3 categories.

Like Julia this year...But still, 100 folds better than lets say 50 years ago.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#936 Postby jinftl » Sun Oct 24, 2010 9:54 pm

Excerpt from the 11pm edt NHC Discussion on Hurricane Richard....he is putting up something of a fight!!!

RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND
0045 UTC ABOUT 20 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY. THE EYE
ACTUALLY BECAME BETTER DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER
LANDFALL...AND IT DOES NOT YET APPEAR THAT RICHARD HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN
.

STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES FURTHER INLAND. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEFORE IT ENTERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD KEEP RICHARD FROM RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE BACK OVER WATER.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WEAKENS RICHARD TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS AND NOW INDICATES
DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#937 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sun Oct 24, 2010 10:12 pm

jinftl wrote:Excerpt from the 11pm edt NHC Discussion on Hurricane Richard....he is putting up something of a fight!!!

RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND
0045 UTC ABOUT 20 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY. THE EYE
ACTUALLY BECAME BETTER DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER
LANDFALL...AND IT DOES NOT YET APPEAR THAT RICHARD HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN
.

STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES FURTHER INLAND. RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEFORE IT ENTERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD KEEP RICHARD FROM RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE BACK OVER WATER.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WEAKENS RICHARD TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS AND NOW INDICATES
DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS


That's very interesting. The weirdest thing was earlier I was thinking that Richard wouldn't weaken as much over land as the NHC is thinking. Just because of how Richard's been forming overall. And because this is the same area that Hurricane Alex traversed when he strengthened over land.
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#938 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 24, 2010 10:15 pm

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quite impressive
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#939 Postby Macrocane » Sun Oct 24, 2010 10:19 pm

Wow! Richard is like Fay opening his eye after landfall, I don't think Richard will weaken as fast as expected this year Alex and Karl handled pretty well their travel over land (in a similar location) although if it survives land it won't survive the conditions in the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#940 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2010 10:22 pm

IMO,the Atlantic got bonus ACE units as normally cyclones do when they make landfall,they start to weaken,but Richard has mantained an eye already well inland.I thought Richard would be a Tropical Storm at 60kts at least,but the bonus came with the still 80kts.
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