ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

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#961 Postby Shuriken » Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:57 pm

Richard's surface LLC has outpaced the mid-level center, and is moving a tad quicker; I think it'll reach the coast before midnight. Doesn't appear to be any shear in the SE BoC, however, and SSTs support at least cat 2, so I wouldn't put it beyond the realm of the pale that it regains at least TS status on Tuesday.
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#962 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 1:08 pm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

THIS IS NOT OFFICIAL, but what I think the BT should be:

20/1800 - 17.6 / 81.7 - 25 kt - 1009mb - Tropical depression

21/0000 - 17.5 / 81.2 - 25 kt - 1008mb
21/0600 - 17.2 / 80.9 - 30 kt - 1006mb
21/1200 - 16.7 / 80.6 - 30 kt - 1006mb
21/1800 - 16.3 / 80.4 - 30 kt - 1007mb

22/0000 - 16.0 / 80.4 - 35 kt - 1006mb - Tropical storm
22/0600 - 15.9 / 80.5 - 35 kt - 1007mb
22/1200 - 15.9 / 80.9 - 35 kt - 1007mb
22/1800 - 15.8 / 81.6 - 35 kt - 1007mb

23/0000 - 15.8 / 82.1 - 40 kt - 1008mb
23/0600 - 15.8 / 82.6 - 40 kt - 1007mb
23/1200 - 15.9 / 83.1 - 50 kt - 1003mb
23/1800 - 16.0 / 83.8 - 55 kt - 999mb

24/0000 - 16.2 / 84.2 - 60 kt - 995mb
24/0600 - 16.5 / 85.2 - 65 kt - 993mb - Hurricane
24/1200 - 16.8 / 86.4 - 70 kt - 991mb
24/1800 - 17.1 / 87.5 - 75 kt - 986mb

25/0000 - 17.2 / 88.2 - 85 kt - 979mb
25/0045 - 17.3 / 88.4 - 85 kt - 978mb - Landfall and peak intensity
25/0600 - 17.5 / 89.3 - 65 kt - 989mb
25/1200 - 17.7 / 89.9 - 40 kt - 1005mb
25/1800 - 18.0 / 90.5 - 30 kt - 1009mb
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Re:

#963 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 25, 2010 1:25 pm

Shuriken wrote:Richard's surface LLC has outpaced the mid-level center, and is moving a tad quicker; I think it'll reach the coast before midnight. Doesn't appear to be any shear in the SE BoC, however, and SSTs support at least cat 2, so I wouldn't put it beyond the realm of the pale that it regains at least TS status on Tuesday.


There is a cold front blasting down from Texas pushed the powerful system cutting into the great lakes bringing snow to the plains and west. It should be in the gulf by Weds so whatever comes of Richard then will likely not survive after that. But it does have a small chance in the BoC if it can move fast to effect Mexico.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#964 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 25, 2010 2:03 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes again a tropical storm (a weak one though) before reaching the shear and dry air or before the shear reaches Richard.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#965 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2010 2:13 pm

The cam survived as well the palm trees and homes there. Hopefully,BZSTORM can come soon to let us know what occured in Belize.But the first news is that no deaths nor injuries occured.

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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#966 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 2:14 pm

With the LLC moving more west than anything else today, it may not even reach the BoC until during the day tomorrow (if then). Originally, I thought it may have a fair chance at redevelopment. Now, I don't think so.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#967 Postby abajan » Mon Oct 25, 2010 3:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:The cam survived as well the palm trees and homes there. Hopefully,BZSTORM can come soon to let us know what occured in Belize.But the first news is that no deaths nor injuries occured.

http://icons.wunderground.com/webcamram ... 1275309539
Due to their flexibility, unless palm trees are in pretty loose soil, they aren’t easily toppled. From what I understand, it’s usually only powerful hurricanes or tornadoes that bring down palms.
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Re: Re:

#968 Postby Shuriken » Mon Oct 25, 2010 4:18 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Shuriken wrote:Richard's surface LLC has outpaced the mid-level center, and is moving a tad quicker; I think it'll reach the coast before midnight. Doesn't appear to be any shear in the SE BoC, however, and SSTs support at least cat 2, so I wouldn't put it beyond the realm of the pale that it regains at least TS status on Tuesday.
There is a cold front blasting down from Texas pushed the powerful system cutting into the great lakes bringing snow to the plains and west. It should be in the gulf by Weds so whatever comes of Richard then will likely not survive after that. But it does have a small chance in the BoC if it can move fast to effect Mexico.
The current model assumption is a low-level swirl moving NW and being cut-across by southwesterly sheer (and so, it croaks).

But if Richard lollygags near the southern BoC (i.e., left of and slower than presently forecast) and reacquires a vertical core during the next 48hrs, then it stands to reason later movement will be rightward and probably faster than presently forecast (i.e., in tandem with front-associated mid-levels, similar to Opal) once picked up.

Image
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#969 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 5:45 pm

Looks completely decoupled now. Wouldn't be surprised if the last advisory was issued at 10pm CDT. Regeneration chances in BoC look to be extremely low.
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#970 Postby BZSTORM » Mon Oct 25, 2010 5:56 pm

Good afternoon everyone, we had pretty much countrywide blackout around 5pm last night as the eye made landfall. Our electricity was recently restored in the South and they hope to have majority of rest of country restored by tomorrow night. I understand in Belize City the South Side was hit hardest, trees down, roofs off some homes, some homes collapsed in winds but also from trees or lamp posts crashing on houses. Belmopan the capital was badly hit and personally I know of 2 friends who lost roofs there. The eye according to local radio passed Belmopan around 8pm last night. Spanish Lookout which is near San Ignacio reported they recorded winds at 92mph as the eye passed them. Lots of trees, building damage and electrical lines came down along the path of the hurricane. I heard near Belzie City a few of the high power tension electrical lines came down, there was a report of a whole roof near Belmopan which flew off and landed up on electrical lines. Friend in Belize city said boats in a marina were washed on shore and one boat washed up right across the main road. His house had minimal damage and found out the glass doors he's bought as hurricane proof - were not hurricane proof. Dangriga sustained collapsed houses, trees down and roof damage, power lines down. San Pedro & Caye caulker had allot of beach debris and some pier damage compared to mainland it's minimal
On the placencia peninsula we had hardly any winds but constant rain till 4pm when winds picked up a bit and rain was heavier - winds swung from NE - SE during the night no more than approx 20 kts. Rain started dropping off around 8pm on th peninsula. If Richard had had more time to get bigger the damage would have been allot worse, but much like Hurr Iris 9 years ago, it was a compact hurricane doing the most damage in 20 mile radius from the eye. I woke in the South the beautifully sunny day with calm flat sea, when u see this its hard for many not being through Iris the damage & destruction just 40 miles away.
Belize Gov & NEMO just had press conference and gave a preliminary report from assessment made starting 8am today by fly over. First NO deaths related directly to Hurricane Richard. aprox 4600 ppl were in shelters. 400 homes have sustained serious damage i.e. collapsed , walls missing, whole roofs gone, currently approx 200 ppl are homeless . Major losses for citrus industry 30% overall loss - estimated $19.5million BZD orange, $9.6 million BZD grapefruit mostly from the Stann Creek Valley area. Initial estimate cost for recovery work, i,e making repairs clearing debris - $3.6 million BZD. $33.8 million BZD damages, this doesn't take into account reapirs to roads,bridges, or tourism industry. These are preliminary figures as many smaller villages still haven't been assessed.
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#971 Postby BZSTORM » Mon Oct 25, 2010 6:03 pm

One other thing I had to shut down computer at 4.10pm my time as elec was flashing on & off before full blackout - I was saving the images of the 250km radar as it was coming in if anyone saved these images, I managed to save upto 22.00 (24.10.10) & IR global sat image 17.45 please PM me as I'd like to have them for my archive. thanks
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Re:

#972 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2010 6:10 pm

BZSTORM wrote:Good afternoon everyone, we had pretty much countrywide blackout around 5pm last night as the eye made landfall. Our electricity was recently restored in the South and they hope to have majority of rest of country restored by tomorrow night. I understand in Belize City the South Side was hit hardest, trees down, roofs off some homes, some homes collapsed in winds but also from trees or lamp posts crashing on houses. Belmopan the capital was badly hit and personally I know of 2 friends who lost roofs there. The eye according to local radio passed Belmopan around 8pm last night. Spanish Lookout which is near San Ignacio reported they recorded winds at 92mph as the eye passed them. Lots of trees, building damage and electrical lines came down along the path of the hurricane. I heard near Belzie City a few of the high power tension electrical lines came down, there was a report of a whole roof near Belmopan which flew off and landed up on electrical lines. Friend in Belize city said boats in a marina were washed on shore and one boat washed up right across the main road. His house had minimal damage and found out the glass doors he's bought as hurricane proof - were not hurricane proof. Dangriga sustained collapsed houses, trees down and roof damage, power lines down. San Pedro & Caye caulker had allot of beach debris and some pier damage compared to mainland it's minimal
On the placencia peninsula we had hardly any winds but constant rain till 4pm when winds picked up a bit and rain was heavier - winds swung from NE - SE during the night no more than approx 20 kts. Rain started dropping off around 8pm on th peninsula. If Richard had had more time to get bigger the damage would have been allot worse, but much like Hurr Iris 9 years ago, it was a compact hurricane doing the most damage in 20 mile radius from the eye. I woke in the South the beautifully sunny day with calm flat sea, when u see this its hard for many not being through Iris the damage & destruction just 40 miles away.
Belize Gov & NEMO just had press conference and gave a preliminary report from assessment made starting 8am today by fly over. First NO deaths related directly to Hurricane Richard. aprox 4600 ppl were in shelters. 400 homes have sustained serious damage i.e. collapsed , walls missing, whole roofs gone, currently approx 200 ppl are homeless . Major losses for citrus industry 30% overall loss - estimated $19.5million BZD orange, $9.6 million BZD grapefruit mostly from the Stann Creek Valley area. Initial estimate cost for recovery work, i,e making repairs clearing debris - $3.6 million BZD. $33.8 million BZD damages, this doesn't take into account reapirs to roads,bridges, or tourism industry. These are preliminary figures as many smaller villages still haven't been assessed.


BZSTORM,first I am glad that nothing occured to you.That is a good detailed report of all of what occured there.The most important thing is that no deaths occured.But those homeless people are the priority now and I am sure they will be in a home very soon. I sent you by PM a closeup radar of the landfall.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#973 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 8:25 pm

Bones says he's ready to call this one:
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Re: Re:

#974 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 25, 2010 8:54 pm

Shuriken wrote:But if Richard lollygags near the southern BoC (i.e., left of and slower than presently forecast) and reacquires a vertical core during the next 48hrs, then it stands to reason later movement will be rightward and probably faster than presently forecast (i.e., in tandem with front-associated mid-levels, similar to Opal) once picked up.



Im currently doubting it will even make it into the BoC with anything nonetheless be a cat 4 Opal. Looks caught up in the westerlies to me.
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Re: Re:

#975 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Shuriken wrote:But if Richard lollygags near the southern BoC (i.e., left of and slower than presently forecast) and reacquires a vertical core during the next 48hrs, then it stands to reason later movement will be rightward and probably faster than presently forecast (i.e., in tandem with front-associated mid-levels, similar to Opal) once picked up.



Im currently doubting it will even make it into the BoC with anything nonetheless be a cat 4 Opal. Looks caught up in the westerlies to me.


That's the mid level center you're following on satellite. The LLC is just entering the BoC. MLC is moving off to the NE:
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#976 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:37 pm

Naked spiral emerging into Gulf.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#977 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:46 pm

Can't understand why the NHC didn't call it and issue the last advisory. It's moving into dry air and increasing shear. It's not going to regenerate convection between now and 4am.
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#978 Postby BZSTORM » Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:52 pm

I know Richard as Hurricane is past history now but after looking back on posts I missed due to blackout I have theory why he kept getting his act together even after landfall (eye opening): the landfall area is mostly swamp and the initial route had allot of rivers along it, basically he didn't run out of water for quite a way, also terain is very flat, not until just before Belmopan does the land really start to rise and even then Spanish lookout which recorded the 92mph winds although on high ground is pretty flat farming country.
Last edited by BZSTORM on Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#979 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:53 pm

The center is already over water...and just has a little strip of land to cross over before going into the BOC.
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Re: ATL: RICHARD - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#980 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 26, 2010 8:23 am

Walk toward the light, Richard! Your time on this Earth has ended...
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