WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (17W)

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WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (17W)

#1 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:17 pm

Link to NRL page for 98W
.98WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-141N-1643E.
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Last edited by supercane on Thu Oct 21, 2010 10:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby StormingB81 » Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:49 pm

They just popping up left and right now arn't they
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 19, 2010 6:21 pm

Looking at this, this is a tropical cyclone right now.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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#4 Postby Chacor » Tue Oct 19, 2010 6:57 pm

What tosh. None of the agencies are even carrying this as a TD yet.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#5 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:02 pm

euro6208 wrote:Looking at this, this is a tropical cyclone right now.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



I added a disclaimer for you. When we are in the Active thread, please remember the disclaimer when making forecasts or predictions.
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#6 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 19, 2010 10:03 pm

JMA 00Z analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 13N 163E WNW 10 KT.

IR can be deceiving. Latest vis:
Image

ASCAT only caught western edge, but no signs of a circulation with NE trades dominant:
Image
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#7 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Oct 20, 2010 7:13 am

JMA Upgrades to TD:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 16N 163E WNW 10 KT.
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#8 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Oct 20, 2010 8:49 am

Wonder if by 0500 we will have a TCFA on this one from JTWC..JMA is leading everyone with TD's today...
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#9 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:06 pm

From JTWC:

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7N 162.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 201444Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A BROAD
TUTT CELL AND DEEP CONVECTION IS FLARING DUE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
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#10 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:15 pm

O give me a break!
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#11 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:16 pm

lol..Dec 1rst is break time but even then here in the WPAC it does go year around with Tropical Cyclones...
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#12 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 20, 2010 8:40 pm

WTPQ22 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 19.1N 160.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 20.5N 156.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Image

Image
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#13 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 20, 2010 9:00 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 202330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/202330Z-210600ZOCT2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201951ZOCT2010//
REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/2000921ZOCT2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING, REF B IS A
/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 201800Z, TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) <snip>
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
<snip>
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7N
162.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 160.6E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST
OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH A
SMALL, WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 202022Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
(TPW) PRODUCTS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A
COLD-CORE TO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN
A POCKET OF INCREASING, MORE FAVORABLE TPW VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS DEVELOPING
UNDER A TUTT CELL, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

<snip>
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(2) TO
FAIR.//
NNNN
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#14 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 20, 2010 9:33 pm

WTPN22 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8N 160.4E TO 24.3N 153.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 210230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 159.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
160.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST
OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH A
SMALL, WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 202258Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
(TPW) PRODUCTS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A
COLD-CORE TO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN
A POCKET OF INCREASING, MORE FAVORABLE TPW VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS DEVELOPING
UNDER A TUTT CELL, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 146.7E.//
NNNN
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#15 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 20, 2010 10:11 pm

Image
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#16 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Oct 20, 2010 11:03 pm

The WPAC is Alive!
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#17 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 20, 2010 11:30 pm

TXPN27 KNES 210333
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)
B. 21/0230Z
C. 19.6N
D. 159.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING FOR A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. FT
BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...EARLE
=
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#18 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Oct 21, 2010 1:04 am

JMA now issuing advisories for 98W

TD
Issued at 04:15 UTC, 21 October 2010
<Analyses at 21/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°40'(19.7°)
E159°20'(159.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 1008hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 22/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°50'(21.8°)
E156°10'(156.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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#19 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Oct 21, 2010 1:11 am

JTWS also re-issued this one even though it was made a couple of hours ago:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
160.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST
OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH A
SMALL, WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 202258Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
(TPW) PRODUCTS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A
COLD-CORE TO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN
A POCKET OF INCREASING, MORE FAVORABLE TPW VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS DEVELOPING
UNDER A TUTT CELL, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PGTW 210300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
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#20 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 21, 2010 1:25 am

JMA 6z fix is T1.5.
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