WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (17W)

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StormingB81
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#21 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Oct 21, 2010 3:44 pm

UPGRADE: Tropical Depression 17
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#22 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 21, 2010 5:54 pm

JTWC does not expect a TS from this.
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#23 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:41 pm

looks like it is going ot be over before it really starts
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#24 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:12 pm

JMA no longer expects it to develop and have stopped issuing TC bulletins.
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#25 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:27 pm

WTPQ22 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 21.0N 155.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 23.0N 154.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 156.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 156.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.6N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.5N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 23.3N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.9N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 155.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780
NM NORTHEAST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 211503Z AMSR-E PASS, AND A
212430Z KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS INDICATE THAT TD
17W HAS FORMED JUST POLEWARD OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC (TUTT)
CELL. TD 17W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND INDUCE A POLEWARD TURN INTO A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF A WEAK
STEERING SETUP. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS, INCLUDING
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND THE INTRODUCTION OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE CENTER OF TD 17W FROM
THE SOUTHEAST, SHOULD PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DISSIPATION BELOW THE 25 KNOT
WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY AROUND TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 210251Z OCT 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 210300). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z,
221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W
(SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Image

TPPN12 PGTW 220023
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (ENE OF MARIANA ISLANDS)
B. 21/2330Z
C. 21.2N
D. 155.6E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/1859Z 20.8N 156.0E SSMS
21/1905Z 21.0N 155.8E TRMM
21/2009Z 21.0N 155.8E SSMS
KIENZLE

Image

Image
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#26 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:49 pm

WTPN33 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.0N 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.9N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.5N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 155.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760
NM NORTHEAST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND
230300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 21, 2010 10:11 pm

Image

nice pic
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#28 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 21, 2010 10:15 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 760 NM NORTHEAST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A 212221Z SSMI PASS AND A 212330Z PGTW
SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS FROM KNES AT 212057Z
AND STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE SSMI IMAGE. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE
SOUTH. THE LLCC IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR THIS
SYSTEM.
B. TD 17W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND INDUCE A POLEWARD
TURN INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
WEAK STEERING SETUP. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS, INCLUDING
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND THE INTRODUCTION OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE CENTER OF TD 17W FROM
THE SOUTHEAST, SHOULD PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND RESULT IN DISSIPATION BELOW THE 25 KNOT WARNING
THRESHOLD INTENSITY BY TAU 36.//
NNNN
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#29 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 21, 2010 10:30 pm

JMA no longer issuing advisories but still keeping this a TD on their 00Z analysis:
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 21.0N 155.4E MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

TXPN27 KNES 220321
SIMWIR
A. 17W (NONAME)
B. 22/0230Z
C. 21.4N
D. 155.2E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/12HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING FOR A DT OF 1.5. MET IS 2.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...EARLE
=
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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 22, 2010 2:35 pm

Image

intense convection
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#31 Postby Grifforzer » Fri Oct 22, 2010 4:27 pm

October 22 2010
============

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Minami Torisima

At 3:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 22.0N 153.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots
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#32 Postby supercane » Fri Oct 22, 2010 6:58 pm

18Z JMA analysis:
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 22.0N 153.0E MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

WTPN33 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 152.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 152.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.7N 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.1N 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.3N 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.4N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 152.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE
BANDING. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS
BASED ON A 221545Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING THE LOW LEVEL
BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. SUBSIDENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST
INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. TD 17W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTH AND WEAKEN THE STR, WHICH WILL CAUSE TD 17W TO TURN POLEWARD
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TD 17W IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. OUTFLOW SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY.
HOWEVER, THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE TD 17W TO DECOUPLE AND DISSIPATE
BELOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING THREASHOLD OF 25 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TURN NORTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W
(MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Image

Completely exposed:
Image

Image
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#33 Postby supercane » Fri Oct 22, 2010 9:46 pm

00Z JMA analysis:
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 22.2N 153.7E MINAMITORISIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

WTPN33 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 22.1N 153.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 153.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.9N 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.7N 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 153.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700
NM EAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 22, 2010 10:58 pm

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Latest
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WPAC: INVEST 97W

#35 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 23, 2010 8:43 am

06z:

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 22.3N 154.1E MINAMITORISIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
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#36 Postby StormingB81 » Sun Oct 24, 2010 4:06 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 21N 154E SW SLOWLY.


Turned back around coming back...lol
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#37 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:55 am

Storm doesn't want to leave just yet it is BACK on the NRL site and Moving WNW So something we may have to keep an eye on.
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