BOB: GIRI (04B) - Depression

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Re: BOB: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B

#21 Postby P.K. » Thu Oct 21, 2010 6:36 am

Upgraded to Cyclonic Storm Giri.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM ‘GIRI’ ADVISORY NO. ONE ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 21ST OCTOBER 2010 BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS OF 21ST OCTOBER.

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM “GIRI” AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 21ST OCTOBER 2010 OVER THE SAME AREA NEAR LATITUDE 17.50N AND 91.50E, ABOUT 350 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SITTWE (MYANMAR), 450 KM SOUTH OF COX BAZAR (BANGLADESH) AND 650 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIGHA (WEST BENGAL, INDIA).

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 998 HPA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BANDING PATTERN WITH FURTHER ORGANISATION. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.5 ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 14.0º N AND 20.0ºN AND LONGITUDE EAST OF 87.0º E.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -800C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM. IT WOULD MOVE NORTHWARDS INITIALLY AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH MYANMAR AND ADJOINING BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN TEKNAF, BANGLADESH(41998 ) AND KYAUKPYU, MYANMAR (48071) NEAR SITTWE BY 1200 UTC TOMORROW, THE 22ND OCTOBER 2010.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

DATE/TIME(UTC)
POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)

21-10-2010/0600
17.5/91.5
65-75 GUSTING TO 85

21-10-2010/1200
18.0/91.5
75-85 GUSTING TO 95

21-10-2010/1800
18.5/92.0
85-95 GUSTING TO 105

22-10-2010/0000
19.0/92.5
95-105 GUSTING TO 115

22-10-2010/0600
19.5/92.5
115-125 GUSTING TO 135

22-10-2010/1800
20.5/93.5
95-105 GUSTING TO 115

23-10-2010/0600
21.5/94.5
55-65 GUSTING TO 75

23-10-2010/1800
22.5/95.5
35-45 GUSTING TO 55


VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (280-320 C), AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS THAN 100 KJ/CM2. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM LIES CLOSE TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 180N AT 200 HPA LEVEL. THERE IS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL INDIA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL AND IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
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#22 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 21, 2010 7:02 am

IMD doing well to include their reasoning and discussion in their advisories.
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#23 Postby KWT » Thu Oct 21, 2010 7:14 am

Yeah thats true Chacor, most times the forecasts from the IMD really can be very poor indeed, lets see how this pans out, ECM at least suggests its probably pretty reasonable.
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Re: BOB: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B

#24 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Thu Oct 21, 2010 7:56 am

Myanmar's one of those countries that DON'T need any Tropical Systems whatsoever because quite frankly, they cannot handle it. Fingers crossed it won't intensify beyond 75mph.
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#25 Postby KWT » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:01 am

Was that the area that got really hammered by Nargis a few years back?
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Re: BOB: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B

#26 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:11 am

It sure is KWT,

I'm blown away at how fast this one blew up here. Some pretty impressive banding coming out of it.
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Re: BOB: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B

#27 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:17 am

Not quite but it's the same country though it's forecast to make landfall further north. Nargis tracked over the Ayeyarwady/Irrawaddy delta area around 16N (aka really low lying just above mean sea level) with a 12ft floodwave and 135mph winds in May 2008, officially killing 80,000 but according to ambassadors and disaster managements it could be as many as 140,000 or even 200,000. Truly a tremendous amount of distruction.

This one's headed more north towards somewhat less populated area than the Irrawaddy delta and it's not forecast to be quite as strong but I've got a bad feeling in my stomach whenever a Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoon is headed for a country that basically cannot handle those systems. And Burma's isolationist regime didn't exactly help matters two years ago, to be polite.
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#28 Postby KWT » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:20 am

Yeah the rainfall alone from this system will almost certainly cause this system to be a deadly storm in the end, sadly.
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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 21, 2010 10:34 am

21/1430 UTC 17.9N 92.3E T4.0/4.0 GIRI -- Bay of Bengal

65 knots

mods, can we change the title to "Cyclonic Storm Giri" ? please!
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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 21, 2010 10:35 am

Image

eye feature
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 21, 2010 10:36 am

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#32 Postby btangy » Thu Oct 21, 2010 11:39 am

Banded eye feature forming. Given the small inner core and favorable conditions, I wouldn't be surprised if this puts on a burst of rapid intensification soon. Not good news for Myanmar.
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#33 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 21, 2010 1:44 pm

Looks to be about 70 kt based on the well-defined eye.
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Re: BOB: CYCLONE STORM GIRI 04B

#34 Postby Crostorm » Thu Oct 21, 2010 3:58 pm

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#35 Postby KWT » Thu Oct 21, 2010 4:05 pm

Wow this one really has come out of nowhere, looking pretty impressive now, 70-75kts seems very reasonable and a powerful storm for the area of the world...
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Re: BOB: CYCLONE STORM GIRI 04B

#36 Postby Crostorm » Thu Oct 21, 2010 4:23 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY



RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI



TROPICAL STORM ‘GIRI’ ADVISORY NO FOUR ISSUED AT 1800 UTC OF 21ST OCTOBER 2010 BASED ON 1500 UTC CHARTS OF 21ST OCTOBER.



THE CYCLONIC STORM “GIRI” OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 21ST OCTOBER 2010 OVER THE SAME AREA CENTRED NEAR LAT. 18.00N AND LONG. 92.00E, ABOUT 250 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SITTWE (48062), 350 KM SOUTH OF TEKNAF (41998 ) AND 600 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIGHA (42901).



SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 990 HPA.



SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BANDING PATTERN WITH FURTHER ORGANISATION. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 3.0 ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTCENTRALAND ADJOINING NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 15.5º N AND 19.5ºN AND LONGITUDE EAST OF 90.0º E.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND ( -75 TO -800C) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.



STORM SURGE AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL EXPECTED 2-3 METERS NEAR THE LANDFALL POINT.



THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM. IT WOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH MYANMAR AND ADJOINING BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN TEKNAF, BANGLADESH (41998) AND KYAUKPYU, MYANMAR (48071) BY 1500 UTC TOMORROW, THE 22ND OCTOBER 2010.
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#37 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 21, 2010 4:25 pm

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#38 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 21, 2010 4:27 pm

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WTIO31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (GIRI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (GIRI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 18.2N 92.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 92.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.3N 93.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.5N 94.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.9N 95.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 92.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (GIRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
211533Z TRMM PASS AND A 211730Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK T-NUMBER
ESTIMATE OF T=4.0 FROM PGTW AT 211730Z AND STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 04B HAS INTENSIFIED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND CARRY THE SYSTEM INLAND BY TAU 24, WITH
DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS OVER
THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WESTERN MYANMAR OCCURRING BY TAU 36. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST,
WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
NNNN
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#39 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Oct 21, 2010 7:23 pm

wow their first forcast only had it as a tropical storm did it blow up or what wow
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Re: BOB: CYCLONE STORM GIRI 04B

#40 Postby Squarethecircle » Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:33 pm

Very deep convection and an eye:

Image
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