BOB: GIRI (04B) - Depression

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Re:

#61 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Oct 22, 2010 4:15 am

shah8 wrote:Hmmm, if the storm moves from the path to the north or south, it will hit pretty densely populated land. In the middle is farmland. Judging from Google Earth.



That is the Ghanges river delta the site of the deadliest natural disaster in history as far as tropicals are concerned, in 1970 a cyclone made landfall there killing upwards of 500,000 people. Just a terrible place for a storm to make landfall. So low lying and so many people.
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#62 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Oct 22, 2010 4:33 am

btangy wrote:Rapid intensification is clearly underway. This is probably up to Cat. 3, if not Cat. 4, just based on latest satellite presentation with a solid ring of very deep convection around an increasingly well-defined eye. The core of high winds is likely very tight. The MIT CHIPS model seems to be the only one capturing the intensification of Giri and is showing a peak intensity of 105-125 knots at landfall, and my guess would be closer to the upper range right now.


It IS up to Cat. 4 according to JTWC...
125 kts 1-minute sustained with gust up to 150 kts

here the latest warning (#06)

WTIO31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (GIRI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (GIRI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 93.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 93.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.2N 94.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.6N 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.2N 96.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 93.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (GIRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT SIX KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED 25 NM EYE, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 125
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES, INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC GIRI IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC GIRI
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF
HUNTERS BAY AND COMBERMERE BAY BETWEEN 22/12Z AND 22/18Z. TC GIRI IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF MAYANMAR AND WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN


Let's hope the best for those people.
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#63 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Oct 22, 2010 4:37 am

Wow, this area is worst off than the PI as far as infrastructure, Burma is one of the poorest countries on earth. this is just scary.
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#64 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 22, 2010 5:51 am

God I hope this isn't Nargis part deux.

Good to see IMD at least have some decency to forecast a 100 kt peak.
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Re: Re:

#65 Postby AussieMark » Fri Oct 22, 2010 5:53 am

RobWESTPACWX wrote:
shah8 wrote:Hmmm, if the storm moves from the path to the north or south, it will hit pretty densely populated land. In the middle is farmland. Judging from Google Earth.



That is the Ghanges river delta the site of the deadliest natural disaster in history as far as tropicals are concerned, in 1970 a cyclone made landfall there killing upwards of 500,000 people. Just a terrible place for a storm to make landfall. So low lying and so many people.


1991 Super Cyclone killed around 128,000 also
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#66 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 22, 2010 6:31 am

The 0600z warning from IMD has this at 90 knots.

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘GIRI’ ADVISORY NO. NINE ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 22nd OCTOBER 2010 BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS OF 22nd OCTOBER.

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “GIRI” OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 22ND OCTOBER 2010 OVER THE NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 19.0N AND LONG.93.0E, ABOUT 150 KM SOUTH OF SITTWE (MYANMAR) AND 110 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KYAUKPYU (MYANMAR), 240 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TEKNAF (BANGLADESH) AND 650 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIGHA (WEST BENGAL, INDIA).

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 964 HPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EYE PATTERN WITH FURTHER ORGANISATION. THE EYE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED FROM 20 KM AT 0300 UTC TO 15 KM AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY INDICATING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 5.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 16.0ºN AND 21.0ºN AND LONGITUDE EAST OF 90.0ºE.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND ( -80ºC) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. KYAUKPYU REPORTED LOWEST PRESSURE OF 999 HPA AND SURFACE WIND OF SOUTHEASTERLY 20 KNOTS AND 24 HOURS PRESSURE CHANGE OF MINUS 10.4 HPA.

THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN SITTWE (48062) AND KYAUKPYU (48071) BY TODAY, THE 22ND OCTOBER 2010 BETWEEN 1200 AND 1500 UTC. SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 170-180 KMPH GUSTING TO 200 KMPH WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND OFF ABOVE COAST AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION (LAT. ºN/ LONG. ºE) SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)
22-10-2010/0600 19.0/93.0 160-170 gusting to 190
22-10-2010/1200 19.5/93.5 180-190 gusting to 210
22-10-2010/1800 20.0/94.0 180-190 gusting to 210
23-10-2010/0000 20.5/94.5 100-110 gusting to 125
23-10-2010/1200 22.0/95.5 55-65 gusting to 75
24-10-2010/0000 23.0/96.5 30-40 gusting to 50

STORM SURGE GUIDANCE

STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 2.5-3.5 METRES ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS EXPECTED AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL NEAR THE LANDFALL POINT.



REMARK

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW (5-10 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWS DECREASING TREND AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28º-30º C), AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 21ºN AT 200 HPA LEVEL. THERE IS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
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Re: BOB: CYCLONIC STORM GIRI (04B)

#67 Postby P.K. » Fri Oct 22, 2010 6:56 am

Yes this really has gone through RI overnight. I hope the govt has warned people this time unlike what happened with VSCS Nargis.
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#68 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:00 am

It's Burma we're talking about. Given they're more interested in their own politics at this time (just unveiled a new flag and constitution, and are "organising" elections next month), I doubt the government really cares about warning people at this time.
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#69 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:12 am

Image

about to make landfall
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Re: BOB: CYCLONIC STORM GIRI (04B)

#70 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:18 am

Image

Image

very impressive
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Re: BOB: CYCLONIC STORM GIRI (04B)

#71 Postby P.K. » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:19 am

Exactly. we saw what happened as a result of this two years ago with Nargis so I fear another large death toll, although at least the area this is making landfall doesn't look to be as populated as with Nargis. Another good thing is this is headed direct for a mountain range which will help to break it down quicker than the flatter terrain to the south.
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#72 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:21 am

How about a thread title update to "Very Severe Cyclonic Storm"?
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Re: BOB: CYCLONIC STORM GIRI (04B)

#73 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:22 am

Close up VIS is showing a layered cirrus with the eyewall much higher altitude than the rest of the CDO.

Obviously a strong eyewall hot-tower must have recently fired accounting for this effect and the RI


Image
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Re: BOB: CYCLONIC STORM GIRI (04B)

#74 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:22 am

22/0830 UTC 19.4N 93.2E T6.5/6.5 GIRI -- Bay of Bengal

125 knots
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#75 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:22 am

The other big factor on top of all of this is that the warning may have not gotten out there, this storm developed really fast in the order of about 36hrs. With most of the people in some of this region possibly not even owning a TV they may get caught off guard or surprised by this storm. Its hard to think but some of these luxurious we have not (TV / internet/) are hard to come by in many places.
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#76 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:24 am

Even if they had TVs, Burmese media is unlikely to have announced this.
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Re: BOB: CYCLONIC STORM GIRI (04B)

#77 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:37 am

Exactly, the whole population will have been caught off guard once again.

Shocked at the RI overnight but then again, there's a reason I had a bad gut feeling. At a guess, this is probably even stronger upon landfall than Nargis.
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#78 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:38 am

WOW:

2010OCT22 103000 6.0 927.0/ +0.0 /115.0 6.0 6.2 7.1 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF 1.44 -78.24 EYE 13 IR 19.63 -93.31 COMBO


Raw T Numbers got up to 7.1!
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Re: BOB: CYCLONIC STORM GIRI (04B)

#79 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:39 am

apocalypt-flyer wrote:Exactly, the whole population will have been caught off guard once again.

Shocked at the RI overnight but then again, there's a reason I had a bad gut feeling. At a guess, this is probably even stronger upon landfall than Nargis.

Stronger overall. JTWC carried Nargis at 120 knots at maximum intensity.
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#80 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:43 am

From my understanding Nargis was so bad because it hit a very low lying, swampy area that was took a tremendous blow from storm surge. I don't think the area Giri is hitting is as low.

Before and after from Nargis:

Image
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